Break again! Is the iPhone 15 still working?

Burning Dimension (ID: chaintruth) original

Wen 丨 Lv Jingzhi

Editor丨Rao Xiafei

Despite the controversy, after the iPhone 15 went on sale, online and offline still seemed to be "lively".

The most intuitive scene is the "battle" of e-commerce platforms. Whether it is Tmall, JD.com, Kuaishou and Douyin, they have been building momentum for many days and kicked off the battle of "grabbing people" on September 22.

On the Apple flagship stores of Taobao and JD.com, the entire iPhone 15 series including Pro Max is fully available; In terms of delivery time, Taobao said that it would be delivered within 48 hours, JD.com said that it would take 1-3 days if it was in stock, and 3-5 days in farther places.

Source: Taobao, JD.com, Xiaohongshu dialog box Screenshot of Burning Dimension

A number of dealers launched iPhone 15 series products in Meituan takeaway. On the afternoon of September 22, Ran Jiyuan called the Beijing Apple authorized franchise store - Guomao Phase III store, inquired and learned that the iPhone 15 spot has entered the store, when asked about the delivery time, the other party replied, "It's the same as when you order takeaway, depending on the speed of rider delivery." ”

However, Ran Dimension observed that the online channel iPhone 15Pro Max is in very small stock, for example, this store only has iPhone 15 and Plus. In terms of color, as of the afternoon of September 22, the store has a full range of colors, but the memory shows that the 512GB is out of stock.

On Meituan, the online situation of dealers near Beijing Guomao is similar, almost all of them do not have the iPhone 1Pro Max, and the 512GB memory is also out of stock.

Search for "iPhone 15" on Xiaohongshu will be directed to a dealer's store, which said that the delivery time was within 30 days after the order was submitted, and there was no iPhone 15 Pro Max in the store, and the other customer service said, "It was robbed this morning, and the specific replenishment time is not yet known." ”

Online is lively, offline is not idle.

On social platforms, many consumers posted the live situation of offline stores. When some netizens posted the live situation of the Apple flagship store in Sanlitun, Beijing, they said that there was a long queue in the store, "There are still many people who buy." ”

However, in stark contrast to these lively scenes, more consumers are calm about this new Apple product.

"The cost performance of the iPhone 15 series is not high, so don't consider starting for the time being, wait and see." This is the feedback of many consumers, "Android has also released a lot of new machines recently, which is also a good choice." ”

The wait-and-see of consumers also led to Apple's iPhone 15 breaking on the first day of launch.

On the afternoon of September 22, #iPhone 15 and Plus broke #rushed to Weibo hot search, Weibo blogger "Technology Xinyi" posted that "iPhone15Pro Max premium is too big, ten minutes ago scalpers increased the price of 1,000 yuan, now increase the price of 300 yuan." ”

According to media news, as of press time, the iPhone 15 and Plus channels are in sufficient stock, and the price is lower than the official website price. Compared to the applause after the iPhone went live, this seems unusual.

On the other hand, Apple's stock price is also falling, as of the close of US stocks on September 23, Beijing time, Apple closed at $174.79 / share, with a total market value of less than $2.73 trillion.

Chart/Apple stock price chart Source/Tiger Securities Screenshot of the burning dimension

From the product to the market performance, is the iPhone "incorruptible"? Will Apple be able to come up with more "ideas" to attract users in the future? More answers from Apple await.

01

"Scalpers" stand guard in front of the store

At about 7 p.m. on September 22, Ran Weiyuan came to the Apple store in Sanlitun, Beijing.

The outside of the store is already crowded, and when you want to touch your mobile phone in the store, you have to "survive in the cracks". The table on display of the iPhone 15 series is surrounded by a crowd, and a staff member in a blue uniform is repeating the ordering process with a headset, "If you want to order online and pick up offline, you can only order on the same day." For example, tomorrow you can order online for pick-up under the antenna, but there is no guarantee that the order will be made, and if you can't order it, you will have to order it the day after tomorrow. If you don't want to be so troublesome, then order home delivery, which is expected in November. ”

Ran Dimension asked the staff member how long the offline pickup of the day booking would last, and the other party said that he did not know, depending on the inventory and sales situation, and currently could only order the same day's goods.

Photo: Beijing Sanlitun Apple Specialty Store Source: Photographed by Ran Dimension

What surprised Ran Dimension was that after going out of the Apple store, he immediately met two men and asked Ran Dimension, "Is the iPhone 15 in stock?" When the burning dimension said that it wanted the iPhone 15 Pro Max 512GB, the other party said that there was only 1TB and only 300 yuan.

And these two "scalpers" are not the only ones who stand at the door of the store and ask "do you need a mobile phone". The "scalper" directly goes to the "true lord" to sell, which is a rare scene.

However, unfortunately, for the iPhone 15, the "business" of the "scalper" does not seem optimistic.

"iPhone 15 plus 400 yuan, iPhone 15Plus plus 500 yuan, iPhone 15Pro Max depending on the color you choose to set the premium." If you're in Beijing, it's next-day delivery. "On September 22, at 5:30 p.m. on the day the iPhone 15 officially went on sale, Ran Dimension learned about the market premium of the iPhone 15 series through a "scalper" in the circle of friends who claimed to have a large number of iPhone 15 stocks.

Ran Dimension continued to ask, "How much is the iPhone 15 Pro Max 512G blue and black plus?" The other party replied that the blue price was 15,700 yuan and the black price was 15,800 yuan. Compared with the price of 11999 yuan on the official website, the premium reached 3701 yuan.

After the burning dimension expressed "the premium is too high, consider it again", the other party immediately replied, "You determine the color, I'll take a look." After determining the blue color of the iPhone 15Pro Max 512G, the other party instantly changed his words and said that he had "quoted the wrong price" before, and said that "13500 yuan can be directly flashed".

Photo/Burning Dimension and "Scalper" Dialogue Source/Burning Dimension Screenshot

Seeing that Ran Jiyuan did not reply, a few minutes later, the "scalper" asked again, "You are in Beijing, I will see the lowest price." ”

When the burning dimension represented the three rings, the other party said, "13,000 yuan, flash immediately, can't be lower." And added, "The official website will wait a month, and you will send it to you immediately." ”

Subsequently, Ran Dimension did not deal with it much, but it can be seen from his attitude that the "anxious" feeling cannot be contained.

02

"Less and less cost-effective"

In fact, the scalper's "anxiety" is understandable, after all, for the iPhone 15, consumers are obviously calm.

In the Apple flagship store in Sanlitun, Beijing, Ran Dimension met Lulu, who came to see the iPhone 15 after work, "I am now using the iPhone 13 Pro Max, and I have been an Apple user for many years, come and see how the iPhone 15 is." ”

Talking about the impression of the iPhone 15, Lulu said that it was not satisfactory. "It's not clear what the highlights are, the iPhone 14 Pro Max is indeed lighter than my current phone, but in addition to the light feel is also a bit hard. The color contrast and human appearance of the photo are not amazing. After reading it, I think my iPhone 13 can be used for a few more years. ”

While waiting in line for the iPhone 15 Pro Max experience, a female consumer in front immediately turned to her companion after picking up the phone and said, "It doesn't feel good." Then he picked up his companion's mobile phone of other brands and weighed it, and said directly, "I'll buy you this." The two of them left happily.

Actually, from "iPhone moments" to "iPhones, that's it?" "The more Apple upgrades, the more it loses its cost performance, which seems to be the consensus of many fruit fans."

An Apple user for seven years said bluntly to Ranjiyuan, "iPhone 15 is concerned, but now the conference will not stay up late to watch, will not book online, when you enter the store, you can walk to work, buy it or not." ”

Another fruit fan who has been more than ten years even said, "I am ready to take advantage of the iPhone 14 to reduce the price to buy a 14, iPhone 15 will not buy, I think it is too expensive, not worth the price." ”

Feifei, a fruit fan of nearly ten years, also said that she was not interested in the iPhone 15, and after learning about the parameters of the iPhone 15 after the conference, she was not in a hurry to start, "Those so-called 'improvements' mean little to me." I also don't pursue fashion, for this price, I might as well buy the iPhone 14 series. ”

Fifi started using Apple from the iPhone 6, "The iPhone 6 was almost a 'big kill' for Android phones at that time, so I started, and then I used this phone for 6 years." ”

But later, after Fifi changed the iPhone 12 Pro Max, he found that Android mobile phones have made rapid progress in the development of basic performance in recent years, but it seems that using Apple's own is a "wronged head".

Liangliang, which has been depowdered, is also dissuaded by Apple's low operating comfort.

"For a simple example, my current mobile phone supports nine-square grid pinyin to retrieve contacts from the address book in real time. For example, if I call someone surnamed 'Lv', I can see the contact directly by pressing '58' on the call page. But if I use Apple, I also have to open my contacts and search for contacts. ”

"Of course, for people who don't make many phone calls, the design is just a fraction of the difference. But since I'm in business, phone calls take up a large part of my job, so masking a more user-friendly design is an absolute change in the quality of life for me. Liang Liang concluded.

In this regard, US stock analyst Lin Yu also gave his own opinion, Apple's research and development is more focused on breakthrough design, poor signal, simple function such problems may be "acceptable flaws" in their opinion, they are more willing to invest funds and energy in "obvious first-mover advantage" technology.

As for what are "acceptable flaws" and what is history-changing research and development, users and Apple may have their own ideas.

A user who has been using the iPhone after 5 years from college to work belongs to the "can make good use" party, "Apple does have a lot of relatively low-level bugs, poor signal, can not effectively block harassing calls, etc., I admit it, but I use the mobile phone is to send a WeChat, make a call, every day to look at the mobile phone for no more than 3 hours, plus my computer, IPAD are all Apple system, I will make use of it, too lazy to change." The user said.

In this way, because of the two factors of the ecosystem and the lack of intensive mobile phone use, there are many Apple users who choose to include the iPhone.

An iPhone user for more than ten years said, "I will buy the iPhone 15, not because I expect much from the hardware of the iPhone, mainly because all my work and life electronic equipment tools are Apple systems, and it is really troublesome to change the system." ”

UI designer Vivian has been slow to replace the iPhone because the design work is all Apple computers, "The company is all equipped with Apple computers, although I often complain about the 'mental retardation' of some functions of the iPhone hardware, but I still keep the iPhone for the whole system." ”

However, whether it is users who are "too lazy to change" or users who have "already replaced", they have a high degree of consensus on the flaws of iPhone products, and most believe that "at the same price, the Android experience is indeed higher than Apple".

Of course, there are also consumers who have already got the iPhone 15, and booked the iPhone 15 Pro online on the first day of booking, and successfully posted a friend circle show on the morning of September 22.

After use, Bai Bai said, "There is not much to say, overall quite satisfied, from the iPhone 12 to the new machine, are quite adaptable." ”

03

"Shorted" and "Seeking New Life"

The iPhone loses its cost performance, and it is not only the user who is discouraged, but also the capital.

For example, star investors began to short Apple, and on September 8, less than a week before the new product launch, Dan Niles posted on social media that he wanted to short Apple. Nils said it plans to sell Apple before and after the launch of the new iPhone 15, and said Apple is now their largest single stock short target.

In fact, from September 6 to September 23, Apple's stock price has fallen from $189.98 per share to $174.79 per share, and the total market value has fallen to $2.73 trillion.

Investment analyst Kang Kang said, "It's not so much systematic shorting, but investors are dissatisfied with new products." On the one hand, the improvement of iPhone performance is gradually entering a flat stage, and the cost performance is constantly decreasing; On the other hand, with the rise of Android phone performance, Apple's advantage in the competition is also slowing down. ”

This can also be seen from the slowing sales growth rate of the iPhone.

From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2023, iPhone sales showed a significant decline, showing a decline of 8% and 1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of this year, respectively, and only a slight increase of 1% in the previous quarter. Although the iPhone is still the main force of Apple's revenue, its share of total revenue fell from 52% in the first quarter of 2022 to 49% in the second quarter of this year.

Source/Apple Earnings Burning Dimension Charting

Sales and word of mouth are under pressure, and in the case of technology is difficult to have more innovative breakthroughs, Apple urgently needs a breakthrough in the next market, and India seems to be becoming this breakthrough.

According to Counterpoint data, Apple's sales in India surpassed France and Germany for the first time in the second quarter of 2023, and India also became the fifth largest market for Apple's iPhone, contributing nearly 4% of total iPhone sales, up 50% year-on-year.

Such rapid market growth has led Cook to say that India represents a "huge opportunity".

India's smartphone market is entering a stage of consumption upgrading, and the proportion of high-end smartphones is increasing. Before 2020, high-end smartphones over $400 accounted for only 4% of shipments in the Indian mobile phone market, and this figure has risen to 10% in recent years.

This year, Apple has also accelerated its presence in India. In April, Apple opened its first physical stores in Delhi, the capital of India, and the popular city of Mumbai; At the same time, Apple is also actively promoting the launch of Apple Pay in India.

In fact, Apple's layout in India is indeed not limited to retail, but also extends to the production side.

On September 12, IT House reported that Apple will sell Indian-made iPhones for the first time on the day of new product release, which also means that the time difference between Indian-made iPhones and other factories is officially zero.

Of course, Apple's development in India is not without its challenges.

Kang Kang revealed, "As far as I know, the yield rate of mobile phones in India is relatively poor, and it has been reported that the yield rate of Apple's foundry under India's Tata Group in the production of apple shells is only 50%, which is mainly due to India's thinner industrial base, infrastructure and worker quality need to be improved." The low yield directly leads to the increase in Apple's production costs, so this is also a major challenge for long-term development. ”

Cheng Xiang, senior consultant of CIC Consulting, added that India's high-end user base has yet to develop, and Apple released the Apple mobile phone in India as early as 2008, but the response was mediocre. It even took 7 years from the time Apple submitted its application to set up a store in India to the landing of the first directly-operated store. Although India's demand for smartphone iterations is expected to rise in the past two years, it is not so easy for Apple to use the Indian market as a new growth curve.

In the increasingly competitive smartphone market, Apple clearly needs more "innovation" to meet the challenge.

*The title image is from Visual China.

*Lulu, Kang Kang, Lin Yu, Feifei, Liangliang, and Bai Bai are pseudonyms in the text.

*Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information in this article or the opinions expressed constitute investment advice to anyone.