A typhoon embryo grew on the doorstep of the mainland! In the late evening of September 19, Jiangsu and other places on the eastern coast of the mainland were stormy, and even some areas were hit by tornadoes before. This is a combination of cold air and heating, a JAC cyclone generated, this JAC cyclone system is so vigorously developed that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the United States has labeled it Typhoon Embryo 99W.
First, the typhoon nest exploded a large ball of wool
Of course, this typhoon embryo 99W is unlikely to develop into Typhoon No. 14, it is mainly extracyclonic in nature, and will then affect the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese archipelago further eastward. But it was at this time that it was seen from the supercomputer ensemble forecast that a large number of typhoon lines appeared densely in the South China Sea-Western Pacific region, churning into a ball of wool, which made people look dazzling.
With the South China Sea-West Pacific "typhoon nest" blowing up a large cloud of yarn, this means that from the upcoming late September, multiple low-pressure systems will again appear in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, with the potential to develop into new typhoons. The forecast of the supercomputer believes that a westerly wind to the east is an important reason for the typhoon nest to blow up a large ball of wool, with the low latitude westerly wind east, water vapor activity in the western Pacific Ocean will increase rapidly, with the subtropical high pressure will form a typhoon embryo can produce a large number of amplitude bands.
Second, the Mid-Autumn Festival is determined to blow typhoons?
The supercomputer said that the current atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea is in a state conducive to typhoon formation and development, mainly for the following reasons:
The first is the position of the subtropical high, which is an important system that affects the summer weather of the continent, and then it will be stable in the western Pacific Ocean, roughly located at the height of the sea area at 25 degrees north latitude, which is a high-pressure ridge. When the subtropical high is band-stabilized in the western Pacific, it also provides a stable external environment for typhoons, making typhoons easier to generate and strengthen.
Second, the Pacific Ocean has abundant SST. Pacific SST is an important factor influencing global climate change and is closely related to El Niño. At present, there are large areas of sea temperature above 30 degrees in the Pacific Ocean, which is conducive to the formation and development of typhoons.
In fact, carefully observing the collection forecast of the supercomputer, you can see that the "wool" of the large group is roughly divided into three regions, which means that in the active typhoon period in late September, there may be 2~3 major low-pressure system activities, and even the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday that may affect the mainland is not excluded, so will the Mid-Autumn Festival be a typhoon? The supercomputer gave the latest predictions.
According to supercomputer forecasts, around September 24, there are two low-pressure systems in the Pacific Ocean that deserve attention. One is a low-pressure system east of the Philippines, which will gradually develop over a warm pond east of the Philippines in late September, with the potential to brew new typhoons and move westerly in the subtropical high, which may affect the mainland South China Sea. The other is a low-pressure system in the South China Sea, which is also expected to develop slowly in late September and move westward, and the possibility of an impact on the mainland's southern China coast cannot be ruled out.
Some numerical models suggest that periods of more typhoon activity may occur during the November holiday. According to the forecast, in early October, there will be a number of relatively mature tropical system activities in the western Pacific, and multiple winds are not ruled out. Based on the above information, it can be seen that during the upcoming double holiday period, there is a relatively high probability of multiple typhoon activities in the western Pacific region, and even the possibility of multiple typhoons threatening East Asian countries at the same time is ruled out. This is bad news for some areas, and you need to prepare in advance. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the latest warning information of the Central Meteorological Observatory and local meteorological departments, and take timely countermeasures.