Now it seems that the popularity of the Mate 60 series has completely exceeded Huawei's expectations. According to the "IT Times" reporter, Huawei Mate 60 Pro and Mate 60 Pro+ shipments have been raised to 20 million. Previously, supply chain news said that Huawei Mate 60 Pro has been added to 15 million to 17 million units.
It can be seen that when the Mate60 series is released, the popularity directly exceeds the iPhone 15 just released, which can be felt from the wind direction of the scalper not squatting Apple squatting Huawei, and the Americans are also confused. So, let's take a look: what is the concept of Huawei's shipment of 20 million? Is this goal really possible?
First, the phenomenon: It is normal to add orders to 20 million, but will Apple and Huawei users be the same wave of people?
Needless to say, with the current popularity of the Mate60 series, it is normal for Huawei to add orders to 20 million units, and the decline in mobile phone sales in recent years is a trend.
- But under such circumstances, Apple's sales in the Chinese market in 2022 reached a staggering 54.32 million units, regaining the throne of the market leader. Huawei, on the other hand, plummeted, with global mobile phone sales of only 22 million units.
In fact, since 2020, Huawei's mobile phone shipments began to plummet, with 189 million units in 2020, and by 2021, shipments plummeted to 35 million units.
During this period, sales of Apple mobile phones began to grow. Some people say that Apple mobile phone users and Huawei mobile phone users are not the same wave of people, and it turns out that a considerable part of Huawei and Apple users overlap. If there is really no overlap, how do the following 2 pictures explain?
Looking at the data of the first half of 2023, more than $600, Huawei still occupies 15.6% of the share, the second in China, you know, Huawei did not have a 5G mobile phone in the first half of the year, it is in this case, Huawei has achieved such excellent results, you say terrible is not terrible?
In 2022, Apple mobile phone shipments in China will be 51.3 million units, the average person buys only one mobile phone when buying a mobile phone, and few people will buy 2 mobile phones, you buy Huawei and don't buy Apple. If Huawei can sell 20 million mobile phones now, it naturally means that Apple will sell 20 million fewer mobile phones.
And these mobile phones are five or six thousand, seven or eight thousand models, 20 million that is a lot of money, to a mobile phone 6000 calculation, this is 120 billion, even if such a rich company as Apple, 120 billion is not a small number, the final reaction in the financial report is a year-on-year decline of more than a percentage point of the big problem.
Second, analysis: Huawei M60 series shipments of 20 million units, what is the concept?
I took an inventory, although the M60 is hot, but the news of shipments is getting worse and worse, I always feel that many people now seem to have no concept of numbers, what 10 million, 20 million, 50 million, are open mouth.
- When I said that the order volume of Mate60 Pro increased to 15 million, I actually felt that it was outrageous enough, now look at this buddy. The amount of 15 million units was consumed before the Spring Festival.
Big brother, do you know what 15 million is? Apple's peak Q4 2022 sold 15 million units in China, winning 70% of the price of more than $600, ranking first in the market, accounting for 20%.
The total plate of the market is so large, if the Mate60 series sells 15 million units before the Spring Festival, it means that Q4 will exceed 10 million units, that is, Huawei replaces Apple and wins more than 50% of the high-end market share, is it possible?
Further down, it's even more outrageous. The Mate60 series has shipped 50 million units worldwide, and buddy, the Mate60 series has no overseas sales plans.
- You know, Huawei Mate&P every year is similar, according to this logic, Huawei's single flagship sales will have to exceed 100 million next year, then Apple will be 200 million a year, what do you think?
In fact, regarding the sales expectations of the Mate60 series, the current more reliable is the news of the mobile phone chip master.
In the second half of this year, 60 Pro may ship 5.5 million to 6 million units, and life cycle shipments may reach 12 million units, according to this data, the full series of sales is estimated to reach more than 15 million units.
This result is already very good, Mate50 Pro sold a total of 2.5 million units in 2022, and the cumulative sales of the entire life cycle of the Mate50 series are expected to be a little more than 8 million units, which is equivalent to the direct doubling of the Mate60 series.
- And, considering that the volume of Huawei's P series has always been on par with Mate, this means that Huawei's flagship sales in an annual cycle can almost reach 30 million units, but this amount is centered on the domestic market.
Third, the essence: friends, be wary of killing, and the secondary market for the sake of hype and rumors
In fact, for the 20 million shipments of Pro and Pro+, this is something that Peak Huawei has never done, and it is also the global market. Plus the basic version, wouldn't it be stable at 30 million, which is really a bit too exaggerated.
Although a large number of existing customers need to replace Huawei with new machines, they cannot be so exaggerated. Moreover, Huawei still does not have an official GMS, and overseas market expansion is difficult and limited, and needs to be slowly planned.
Do you remember the poster of the M7 60,000 reservations? It was not issued by Huawei, but I don't know what made it and spread it widely, and then it became a tool for ridiculing the world and Huawei.
- It can be seen that raising expectations can easily turn good things into bad things. What's more, the disease comes like a mountain, and the disease goes like a thread. Huawei has just relied on domestic or independent and controllable supply chains to stand up, where is such a large production capacity, factories want to build, it is difficult to have so much volume.
At the same time, Huawei cannot be too aggressive, once converted into inventory, 10,000 units is 60 million, 100,000 units is 600 million, the cost is extremely expensive. Huawei's current situation is likely to maintain a "tight balance", so that users who want to buy mate60 can basically buy it after a period of time. The concentrated release of demand may not be all a good thing, and the P series behind it will be sold, and durability is king.
- For businesses, running out of stock is just making less money, proper inventory is acceptable, and large inventory is life and death.
Final words: Be wary of half-time champagne and killing, selling goods is more important than anything else!
In total, in 2022, China sold a total of 280 million mobile phones, of which Apple sold 47 million. If Huawei's goal can be achieved, this trade-off means that we may see the high-end market at some point next year surpass Apple and return to the first place in China.
- Of course, this is already a very exaggerated and bullish achievement, and I personally feel that I am a little too blindly optimistic. However, in my opinion, the most important thing now is that Huawei is really back, and what we need more is more patience, after all, the theory of quick victory is as undesirable as the theory of quick defeat, isn't it?
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