Sir Han today combined with the case to talk to you in depth about whether there is a pattern to follow in the price fluctuations of convertible bonds in the secondary market, and whether the stock price of the underlying stock is easy to rise (that is, the stock price) or the price of convertible bonds in the secondary market is easy to rise. There are both positive and negative cases, limited to space, today I will only talk about one case, and subsequent articles will be issued one after another, teaching you the ways and methods of speculating on convertible bonds.
The following paragraph is a more popular statement. Convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares within six months of listing, but after a six-month closed period, the convertible bonds enter the conversion period. If the price of the underlying stock is higher than the conversion price at this time, and selling it after the conversion will definitely make money, then arbitrageurs will buy the convertible bonds to convert the shares, and then sell them in the secondary market. More stocks increase selling pressure, which naturally has a negative effect on the stock price.
Take "127018 steel into bonds" as an example,
On August 4, 2020, "Bengang Bond-to-Bond" was listed for trading, and because the market expected the volatility of steel stocks to be not high, its highest price on the first day was only 102 yuan. Since then, the price of "Bengang Bond-to-Bond" has fallen all the way to the lowest price of 73.06 yuan on February 5, 2021. Remember this phrase:
The bottoming time is exactly 6 months!
Since then, the "Bengang Bond-to-Bond" has risen from the lowest price of 73.06 yuan on February 15, 2021 to the highest price of 145.43 yuan on September 9, 2021, and then the price of convertible bonds began to fall. If not from the perspective of the "steel plate" index and the stock price trend of this steel plate, it seems that you can perfectly sing the mountain song "there is a guarantee at the bottom, but not on the ceiling"!
So let's take a look at the perspective of the "steel sector" index and the stock price trend of this steel plate, and then restore the relationship between convertible bonds and underlying stocks more comprehensively. The "880318 Steel" sector index, in the chart below, is divided by the date of February 5, 2021 where the crosshairs are located, divided into the left half and the right half.
The left half began to build a bottom at 579.07 on February 4, 2020, and the oscillation slowly climbed until it rose to about 789 points (crosshair) on February 5, 2021. On February 5, 2021, the "Bengang Bond-to-Bond" fell all the way from a high of 102 yuan to a low price of 73.06 yuan.
The "880318 Steel" sector index, from about 789 points (crosshairs position) on February 5, 2021, the right half of the K-line, rose to the peak of 1522.54 points on September 13, 2021, and the "Ben Steel Bond" saw the highest price of 145.43 yuan on September 9 a few days earlier.
Compared with the two gains, the main rise wave of the "880318 Steel" sector index rose by 93%, and the steel bond rose by 99% from 73.06 yuan to 145.43 yuan, which means that you can basically reap the same increase when you buy a "steel ETF".
Now we invite out of the gods, this steel plate, its lowest price and highest price in this round, and the "steel to bond" is almost completely consistent, from the lowest price of 1.68 yuan on February 4, 2023 to the highest price of 6.41 yuan on September 9, 2021, this market has a cumulative increase of 281%, far exceeding the steel index and this steel bond!
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Through the above detailed analysis, although it is only a case, three important conclusions can be drawn:
First, it can be judged that the "steel sector" index can rise sharply, it must be based on solid fundamental analysis, which is also the head brokerage of the year, betting all the reputation and achievements for steel, paying attention to the sector's investment opportunities throughout the year. Of course, he almost won, but unfortunately the steel industry saw an important peak on September 9, and the main wave of fundamentals did not continue throughout the year.
Second, convertible bonds must be fragrant! Most convertible bonds do "have a guarantee", like this steel plate, the controlling shareholder is Angang Group, after a half-year closed period of decline (because it cannot be converted into shares), smashed out the bottom of the historical opportunity, at that time at 73.06 yuan to the bottom, practicing the "bottom guarantee" strategy, almost bending over, picking up the gold ingot.
And, this kind of opportunity, from now on, in the future, will still continue to be staged, congratulations to the fans and friends who patiently see here, you have learned to "bottom" the "axe" of convertible bonds.
Third, whether it is stock index futures, options, convertible bonds, it is the general trend of the broader market, the general trend of the industry, and the stock price fluctuation trend wave of the underlying stock. If you can accurately grasp the ability to distinguish the rise and fall of the market, industry index, and stock price, the legendary "crystal ball" is in your insight and wisdom!
Financial Han Sir This is my Douyin account, my personal homepage has a fan base, free to join, talk about dry goods, fishing and fish! Han Sir shares 30 years of experience, help you succeed!