Looking back at last week's technical unwinding, the views and ideas have been clearly expressed, at least the pressure of the short-term trend line has been verified, and the second bottom is now coming. So will A-shares rise or fall next week? After reading this article, I will give you a clear answer! And next week is key, don't stay away from the market!
Many of the points made last week have been tested, such as the rebound is coming, right? Even with the winds of stamp duty reduction, the three assumptions of technical analysis are that price movements contain all information. To use the simplest analogy, even if the stamp duty does not fall, there will be other advantages to contribute to this trend, so in terms of technical analysis, the chart trend already contains everything.
This week, my tip is that the probability of a high and downward trend is high, because the 3144-3200 range is a strong pressure area, and the short-term trend line gradually declines to form a counterpressure. Although this Monday took advantage of the favorable to close the bald head middle Yang line, but finally fell through the 5-day line to go to the second bottom, so is the bottom over now?
The answer is no. If 3053 points is the policy bottom, then the next thing we have to find is the so-called market bottom. Regarding the bottom of the market, I have a lot of successful records, take the recent one, 2885 points I prompt full positions to go long, 3418 points I prompt to prevent the big second wave adjustment, the error is relatively large is the low on July 24, I misjudged that the big second wave adjustment is over.
But after the daily double moving average broke, I corrected the error in time to reset the wave pattern, and then pulled back to the normal rhythm. At least if you compare the monthly chart, there is no problem with the logic of the second wave adjustment judgment, because the monthly line has risen for 6 months and now has fallen for 5 months, but the space retracement has only reached 50% of the increase.
Regardless of the speed, in terms of wave theory alone, as long as the two-wave adjustment does not break through the rising point of the first wave, then here is the two-wave adjustment. The slower the adjustment speed of the second wave, the greater the probability of the main rise of the third wave later, which is also the main basis for me to be optimistic about the market in the second half of the year.
Of course, considering that everyone did not see the Lord Ascension Wave, the doubts were relatively strong, so I will not make too many deductions. To say the simplest, last week I emphasized that this month's probability is to bottom out and rebound the probability of trend, because the monthly K-line in August is a technical pattern of long yin breakdown, and a stop-falling K-line is needed this month to judge the bottom (end of adjustment).
To say more, don't look down on my double moving average, its universality and multi-period coordination, you can hardly find a more bullish medium-term trend strategy than me. When the monthly line was blocked by 3400 points before, the close never stood on my double moving average; After 22 weeks of sawing between the double moving averages, the weekly line still broke downward, and after the break, the weekly line has achieved 5 consecutive negatives.
From the above figure, although the weekly chart has 5 consecutive yin, the space killing is all reflected in the first three black lines, and the last two although the form of the performance is still even yin killing, but it is obvious that the speed has slowed down, and the speed has slowed down the speed of the C wave with time, which is a good thing.
Because the space support I gave before (3000-3030 range) is still effective, if I take the second bottom here as scheduled, it will directly smash out the market bottom. So to answer the above question, the top and bottom of the market are basically accompanied by a multi-index and multi-period resonance structure, which is a prerequisite for me to judge the top bottom, there is no one!
Returning to the daily chart, it has been 29 trading days since this wave C wave adjustment, and it is only a week away from the 33 trading days of the A wave adjustment. Therefore, once space and time are both in place, it is possible to judge the end of the C wave adjustment, of course, the final certainty of the low point still depends on whether the bottom structure is smashed.
Next week's criteria are simple, the conditions for the left side of the attack are the daily close below 3064 points, when there will be a bottom divergence resonance signal in multiple indices and multiple cycles; The criterion for the right side of the attack is to break through the standing double moving average, and the current long-term trend line is around 3214. It takes about 100 points to go up, 60 points down, and it is clear that the probability of reaching the standard is greater.
So I judge that next week is very critical, either break the trend upwards, and enter the market long according to the rules; Conversely, if the structure is smashed down, it is also a key signal of low suction. After all, the Shanghai Composite Index has been adjusted for 87 trading days, and the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300 and Shenzhen Component Index have been adjusted since the beginning of the year, and once the structure appears, then this year's low point will be established.
To sum up, just such a little space, time has basically formed a symmetry, so no matter how to go next week, according to the standards and rules, once there is a signal (left bottom or right attack), directly drop the cup and enter the field. Don't stay away from the market means that the big three waves are generally the main rising wave, and the characteristics of the main rising wave are fast, and you don't want to miss it and keep an eye on the market.
To be conservative, this may be the biggest market bottom in the next year or two, you can believe it or not, but don't miss it! Follow me, I'm @trendradar168!