#金秋心动购房季#
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This is Panda Babe's 1953rd original article
The Chinese property market in September 2023 ushered in a very special moment.
It can be said that "whether the people and the market believe it or not, the policy will stimulate until they believe it".
Domestic policies continue to increase, and benefits follow, which are a bit more than expected for the market and the public.
Stimulated by "recognizing housing without loans" and "reducing down payments", first-tier cities began in Beijing to Shanghai to pick up, and even Shenzhen and Guangzhou began to have obvious restlessness.
The peripheral public opinion environment is also fanning the flames, and various policy research and judgments are emerging one after another:
News from Reuters: In terms of China's real estate policy, the next step will be to take measures to cancel the purchase restriction policy in non-core areas of major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
Before last week, small essays on stamp duty were flying all over the world, and the official media went down to refute rumors, and there was a special discussion, stamp duty is already very low.....
Then, the first person to hammer the stamp duty was Reuters from the United Kingdom.
Reuters said that stamp duty was cut by half, that is, it was really cut by half, Reuters said that after Friday, he will reduce it on Sunday....
On September 6, Reuters news has increased again, in addition to lifting purchase restrictions, there are two bigger killing moves!
1. Relax the range of fluctuations in the filing price of newly built commercial housing;
2. Steadily abolish the restriction on the number of years of transfer of residential construction land.
Reuters is also called roadside news, but roadside news is sometimes so accurate.
It can be said that this round of China's property market from the inside out, the atmosphere has been baked to this part, next, it depends on the market response and the action of the people.
The introduction of policies is too intensive, and the market discussion is becoming more and more intense. Of course, under the influence of public opinion and emotions, the agitation of many people has begun to become more and more obvious.
Tell a truth about life: What is happiness? It's what time stage and what kind of things to do.
So what is wise? This is simpler, that is, you will not regret your choices in the future.
What to do and how to choose, you need to grasp the essence, see the key, and see the trend.
Therefore, this article, based on the special stage and background of the current hot atmosphere of China's real estate market, combines reality, excavates the essence, analyzes the key, and from a truly rational, conscientious, goodwill, and professional perspective, for groups in different cities and regions, let's talk about the current action strategies and suggestions for China's real estate market.
It also coincided with the invitation of the headline platform activity, coinciding with the arrival of the traditional peak season of China's property market "Golden Nine Silver Ten", and everyone nagged about hardcore content that cannot be seen by the mainstream.
Pay attention to trends, grasp the essence, see the main line, study and judge trends, and guide actions.
This article has repeatedly checked for compliance, does not touch red lines, and the language is peaceful and fair, without being value-oriented.
The content is evidence-based, and the analysis is rational and objective.
Hardcore content, missed no more.
Gain insight into opportunities, grasp trends, and guide decision-making.
PS：
- The article is slightly longer, the reading of the content requires a certain amount of time and patience, and it requires thinking.
- The content does not seek to please all readers, and writing sharing is also a process of mutual selection between the reading group and the writing group.
- Everyone's cognitive level is different, do not force, the content of this article is not a big road goods, nor is it a cool article that can bring ease and pleasure to mental satisfaction after reading, please look at it rationally in combination with your own needs and cognitive needs.
(If this article is seen on other information platforms, there is no doubt that it is plagiarism and brazen)
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1
What kind of pattern design and management logic is behind the new round of policy combination and the heat of the first-line property market?
In 2023, it is only a few days into September, and in a short period of time, the favorable real estate policies have landed one after another like a rainstorm:
- The four first-tier cities and second-tier cities have implemented "housing without loans";
- The interest rate for second-home loans was reduced from LPR plus 50 basis points (0.5%) to 20 basis points (0.2%);
- The lower limit of the down payment ratio nationwide is reduced, with the first set ratio being 20% and the second set ratio being 30%;
After the introduction of favorable policies, everyone's circle of friends and public opinion environment immediately exploded.
In particular, those real estate agents have forwarded news such as "a project has increased by 100%" and "the owner raised the listing price overnight", feeling that the market is finally coming.
But is that really the case?
The articles and opinions published in this issue in the past few days have been from a rational and calm point of view, repeatedly emphasizing this conclusion:
This round of real estate regulation is more complex than ever, and the country's intentions are different than ever.
China's real estate economy and property market price logic, a new pattern is accelerating.
Two core logics, here is a good analysis for everyone:
First, this round of real estate policies is mainly good for the "replacement population" in the market, or "improvement demand".
Whether it is the "recognize the house but not the loan" policy, the recognition of the past two houses is now directly changed to a suite. Or is the reduction in the interest rate of second homes aimed at promoting improved demand.
After this round of new real estate policies comes out, there will indeed be many families who will have the idea of replacing real estate.
However, if you want to throw out the house you just need and replace it with a large house with improvement, someone has to take over.
This logic is a very perfect interpretation of the reality of the current property market in first-tier cities, many middle-class families feel the benefits of the new policy, but they want to replace their houses, and a large number of second-hand houses just need to the market for a while.
However, due to the lack of takeover power, oversupply, the price of just-needed housing will be very entangled.
In the end, the new housing project ushered in a favorable policy synergy.
Second, any policy trend related to the property market, the attitude of the state is very critical.
If a round of policies to stimulate the demand for housing just landed, it may also be able to reverse the market and promote house prices to rise.
However, in this round of policies, it is clear that the attitude of the state is very subtle and different from the past.
In the past, real estate was just needed, and the state could directly reduce the interest rate of housing loans.
Reduce it by 1 percentage point, just need not afraid not to get on the bus, afraid of getting on the bus late.
This time, however, the state chose to reduce the interest rate on "stock" mortgages rather than "new" mortgages.
The difference between words is very different.
Reducing the interest rate of existing housing loans means that the state allows you to negotiate with the bank to adjust the mortgage contract at a lower price, which is actually forcing the bank to "give benefits" to families with houses.
According to Xinhua News Agency statistics, 40% of the 100 million housing loan contracts in the country can enjoy the benefit of reducing interest rates, with an average reduction of 0.8%.
This is a very big concession, unprecedented.
However, such a big favorable policy is known at a glance that it is not used to stimulate real estate.
After all, most people who have mortgages have just bought a house a few years ago, and it is impossible to buy a second home in a short period of time. This policy is mainly used to reduce the burden on middle-class families and stimulate everyone's consumption.
At the same time, the government also decided to increase the personal income tax pension and education deduction.
The state's intention is clear, that is, to restore the economy in the future, it is necessary to encourage everyone to consume - not to force the stimulation of real estate by stimulating real estate and rushing people to get on the bus, as was the case in 2016.
The intention of preventing risks and seeking stability is more obvious than pulling house prices and stimulating transactions.
Looking at the above two key logics, then the current pattern of China's real estate and property market is basically clear.
In the transmission chain of "buying improved housing - property replacement - selling just-needed housing - just-needed group takeover",
In the absence of this last force, the overall housing market has recovered sharply, or the momentum for house prices to rise is insufficient.
Local heating is inevitable, which is not controversial, but to say that compared with the two rounds in 2009 and 2016, it is very realistic, this round of property market policy combination punch, what you want, what you want to achieve, the effect you want to get, has been completely different.
So, after seeing the design and logic of this pattern, how convincing are many views and remarks advocating that the real estate market is about to start again?
Is it to see the intention of the state and believe in the will of the state, or to believe in the agitation and excitement brought by the atmosphere and emotions?
That's a good question.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
2
What are the key signals revealed by several realistic policy trends and market performance?
From the night of September 7 to the early morning of September 8, two more heavyweight benefits came out, that is, the property market relaxation policy in Shanghai and Nanjing.
First of all, the management committee of Shanghai's "Lingang New Area" issued a reminder on the policy work of talent housing, which further lowered the threshold for talents to purchase housing in the area:
For talents working in key support units, the working period for buying a house has been shortened from more than 6 months to more than 3 months. (Below)
Image source: see picture
Image source: see picture
Shanghai's new policy surprised many people.
After all, Shenzhen, which has a lower market and less policy resources than Shanghai, has not yet introduced such a policy to relax purchase restrictions. In Pingshan, Dapeng in eastern Shenzhen, even if the non-registered population is a doctor, it takes 5 years of social security to buy a house; Even if the registered population is a doctor, it takes 3 years of social security to buy a house.
Shanghai can do this, and Beijing of the same magnitude can do the same; A slightly weaker broad depth can of course be done. If the four major first-tier cities all greatly relax the purchase restrictions in marginal urban areas, the recovery of the property market in first-tier cities can be expected.
Of course, the first-line purchase restriction is not a trivial matter, but Shanghai has made a start, and no matter how hard the stone cracks, it is also a hope, or in other words, the imagination space is opened.
Then there is Nanjing:
Purchase restrictions are lifted across the board, and the down payment is reduced to 20%.
Image source: see picture
This is the second provincial capital city in the country to follow up since Shenyang completely lifted purchase restrictions. As soon as the relaxation of the settlement threshold was announced, the purchase restrictions were completely canceled, and the wave in Nanjing was indeed fast.
It's time for the property market to give it a shot, a bike to a motorcycle, a fight, and a motorcycle to a BMW.
Up to now.
Although I am not sure whether the purchase restrictions and down payments in first-tier cities will be completely liberalized, the purchase restrictions, down payments, etc. in second-tier cities will be released to everyone at a maximum scale.
There are already many cities in the country to realize this policy, such as Shenyang in the northeast region, which is obviously this, and Wuhan in the central region, which is also a down payment of two, and Nanjing in the eastern region, looking at the latest news, is also a two-percent down payment.
Image source: see picture
Then this is the time to see if everyone dares to give it a shot.
The complete cancellation of purchase restrictions in popular core second-tier cities is a very important signal:
It means that there is no resistance to the lifting of purchase restrictions in second-tier cities. Of course, there are individual head second-tiers, such as Hangzhou, because the hat of "the second city of house speculation" is still worn, and it may be entangled, but the trend is clear:
Even cities like Nanjing have lifted purchase restrictions, and it is estimated that Suzhou, Chengdu and Wuhan will follow suit. Tianjin, as a municipality directly under the central government, is a little reserved, it remains to be seen whether Hangzhou will completely abandon purchase restrictions, Chongqing has not restricted purchases because of the real estate tax pilot.
The reality is not complicated, let me explain it in detail:
At present, the restrictions and management situation of China's real estate market are being comprehensively refreshed:
1. Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou may follow Shanghai and relax the restrictions on residential purchases in marginal urban areas, and the threshold for foreigners to buy first-tier cities has been significantly reduced; The down payment ratio for first and second homes in first-tier cities will also continue to decline, and the interest rate of second homes will also fall.
The recovery of the real estate market in first-tier cities within the year is a foregone conclusion.
2. Second-tier cities have entered a period where they can buy if they want.
For example, Tianjin still retains the purchase restriction in the six districts of the city, but if you open a work certificate, you can buy it; Nanjing, Shenyang, Dalian and other cities have directly cancelled purchase restrictions, and only strong second-tier cities have temporarily retained sales restrictions.
The layman looks at the liveliness, the insider looks at the doorway: what is the essence of the current round from the first line to the second line for the purchase qualification and the release with obvious preemptive characteristics? What are the key signals?
1, the essence is not complicated, that is, the current real estate still has demand support and price confidence, the head city, reached a consensus, by loosening restrictions, started a strong wealth absorber facing the whole country and facing residents' deposits.
Then when big cities have money, they will have the conditions to make greater transfer payments to help backward areas.
Hoping that many cities and regions that are trapped in land finances and saddled with large amounts of local debts are obviously not feasible to help themselves.
Good steel is used on the blade, the first-line faucets are okay, go first, the big living people can not be suffocated by urine.
2. Key signals, worth paying attention to: For China's domestic economy, an era of large-scale wealth transfer and asset reallocation has officially begun.
The wealth of small and medium-sized cities will accelerate the flow to large cities, and even trigger a sell-off in the third-, fourth- and fifth-tier property markets.
The Matthew effect will become a clear feature of China's economy in the short term.
It is not difficult to look at the essence and grasp the key through appearances.
The era of reallocation of assets by large urban agglomerations has arrived, and the era of wealth flowing out of small and medium-sized cities has come.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
3
Trend research and judgment: This round of real estate bailout, or will accelerate the opening of a new price trend and stage?
Next, how to go in China's property market, in fact, there is not much suspense:
We will witness an era, an era of money to save the country.
All kinds of current approval rules and regulations will disappear, and even the original down payment loan may be reappeared.
Again, these restrictions were used in the past when the treasury had money, and there was nothing to do to restrict certain groups of people from getting rich.
Now the reality is that the landlord has no surplus food in his house, so he has no strength to maintain these rules anymore.
The direction of the property market is now certain, and what is uncertain is only the details and the implementation process.
Certainty, which determines whether the future house has the asset attribute of carrying wealth, and the financial attribute that changes in value with economic fluctuations.
The vast majority of houses, the property market in small and medium-sized cities, will accelerate to become a pure consumer market, and it is inevitable that the price will be high and cannot be sold.
Correspondingly, Hegangization will become the next inevitable trend in many cities, and there is no possibility of turning around.
Many people look forward to the house price like onions, isn't the city similar to Hegang?
But the core cities, the first-line heads, the big cities where the population continues to flow in, after this round of pumping, and even high-power blood sucking, the overall housing prices have stabilized, and there can be a wave of impulsive price explosion for high-quality properties with certainty?
How? Still thinking about the collapse of first-line house prices, and then anyone can buy it casually, and easily achieve life upgrades?
Impossible, absolutely impossible, for thousands of years, in the whole world, there has never been such a ridiculous thing.
Under the policy heat, it is the window period of asset reshuffling and restructuring, but really good houses, assets with certainty, are still difficult to appear.
Without the general rise in the market, there is no bamboo shoot, but there is a high probability of taking over.
This round of policy combination fist opens the test of the environmental value of the stock, rather than comprehensively pulling the market to blow bubbles.
For many intermediary groups in small and medium-sized cities and non-mainstream cities, this may be the last conclusion they want to see, right?
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
Written at the end:
How should different groups make advantageous choices and actions based on their own circumstances?
The essence and logical analysis of the should be in place, at the end of the article, from the perspective of different ordinary individuals and families, share a few points of view on advantage strategies, not necessarily right, the right to throw bricks and jade, for everyone to discuss and reference:
1, in the front line, already owned real estate group, the current policy dividend window period, is an excellent replacement window period, this view, there is no dispute.
If conditions permit, exchange small for large, old for new, suburban for center, just need small apartment to improve large house...
Of course, when the number of second-hand housing listings in the next line has skyrocketed, there are responsive local replacement and improvement groups.
2. The national private capital group has ushered in an important opportunity to purchase core high-quality real estate in first-tier cities and head cities for asset allocation.
In fact, this group does not need to be reasonable, and can question the character and morality of these private capitals, but there is no doubt about the sensitivity and vision of this group.
The property market in the core position of the first and second tiers is generally still value-maintained, and if it can rise in a wave, it will not lose money.
Moreover, at present, in addition to this definite investment direction, there is also the advantage of adding safety leverage, in China's current economic environment, is there any business, or investment channel worth trying?
Let the middle class mortgage the house, let the bosses take the family money earned in the past, rush into the stock market, and go to speculate in stocks?
Are you kidding? These private capitals may not necessarily be the smartest, but they must not be blind or stupid.
3. If you are a young person, or need to buy the first set of just needed housing, you may wish to wait a little longer.
Wait a few more months, and there will be a large number of just need to continue selling into the market.
At that time, there will be more choices and more favorable prices.
Roll yourself, not as good as the roll landlord, supply and demand squeeze, can also be oversupply, there is a need is not in a hurry, who has the money in hand who takes the initiative, don't be mistaken.
Stubborn, dead-brained, some landlords kidnapped by interests and desires, this round of reality beatings, can not be avoided.
4, holding speculative speculation, price spread arbitrage, thinking that you can still buy a house casually and can lie down to make easy money groups and funds, hurry up and buy!
If you don't even have patience to read the logic and essence analysis of this article, this may be the last toss in life for low-level house speculation groups.
The era of easy money and overnight wealth has long passed, but there are still many people who are unwilling to admit and accept it.
It's the same in any era, the last copper plate, heavier than the coffin plate.
The vast majority of speculators have properties in the hands of this round of value tests.
5. For ordinary individuals and families, immediate reactions and actions are very important:
Taking advantage of the fact that the policy has just come out and the vast majority of people and the market are still relatively ignorant, it is recommended to sell the just-in-demand house that does not preserve the value as soon as possible.
Even a slight discount can be used to get a head start and exchange for a more value-preserving improvement house, or a more certain value property.
In this way, in the inevitable process of house price differentiation, the wealth of families can not shrink.
6. In the past in the process of shed reform and demolition, the "house masters" and "house aunts" who harvested a large number of demolished houses, as well as the speculators who entered the market first before the promulgation of the purchase restriction policy. Good luck.
Because in the context of this round of stock environment, wealth transfer, and asset restructuring, this group is a group squeezed by both costs and trends.
On the one hand, assets shrink, on the other hand, the contradiction between cost and liquidity is difficult to solve.
However, in the stock environment, there are gains and losses, there are no losers, how to play this game?
In the future, China's property market can no longer stare at just need to speak. Oh, and also, at the moment, the views and voices of housing prices in small and medium-sized cities are still being advocated, everyone should be careful not to drink foot washing...
The above is based on the current reality of China's domestic property market, as well as the speculation of the peripheral small composition atmosphere, a policy in-depth analysis and discussion and trend research and judgment content, and all the readers and friends of the headlines, to communicate and share.
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According to the latest regulations of the relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear suggestions on the purchase of property, investment and other behaviors, and enter the market at your own risk. ）
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