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Lead:
A recent high-profile military incident has made waves around the world, when Prigo, the founder of the Wagner Group, defected unexpectedly, creating an unprecedented crisis for Russia and Belarus. The sudden mutiny quickly attracted widespread attention, but in less than two days, the conflict ended unexpectedly.
Mutiny subsided: The Russian military reacted quickly, and Lukashenko helped reconcile
Immediately after the news of the Wagner mutiny broke, the Russian military took decisive action in an attempt to calm the situation.
What is even more unexpected is that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko also suddenly intervened to try to resolve the crisis through mediation. Although the exact content of the agreement has not been made public, the final outcome of the conflict seems to be acceptable to both sides. Some analysts pointed out that the rebels may go to Belarus and integrate their armed forces into the Belarusian army, which will make Belarus the biggest beneficiary of this incident.
Poke the basket again: Wagner mercenaries strike fatally, Russian military casualties
However, just after Prigo announced the withdrawal of his troops, the Wagner mercenaries once again caused chaos.
Russian media reported that in a series of operations after the withdrawal, Wagner mercenaries not only shot down a number of Russian helicopters and military aircraft, one of which was identified as a Russian Il-22M fighter. The plane, believed to be Russia's "air command post," may have been on a mission to shield communications against rebels, but was shot down by a Wagner mercenary missile. According to the analysis, there may be at least 10 people on board the Il-22M, which may include a Russian general and several senior generals. Together with other downed helicopters, air strikes by Wagner mercenaries may have caused the Russian military to suffer dozens of casualties.
However, due to data confidentiality and the need to investigate the incident, the Russian military has not yet released the list of those killed.
Anger and reparations: Putin was furious, and Prigo offered compensation
The actions of Wagner's mercenaries sparked outrage in the Russian military. Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately instructed Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to visit the site of the incident. At the same time, Prigozhin, realizing that the situation could get out of control, immediately expressed his apologies to the Russian military personnel killed and expressed his willingness to use group funds to provide about 4 million yuan in compensation to each victim. Whether Prigozhin's statement will be forgiven by Putin and the price it may pay is unknown.
However, there have already been calls for Prigozhin's removal from office at the top of the Duma. Prigozhin said in an interview with the media that the Wagner Group will cease to exist at the end of this month. The exact outcome of the incident and its follow-up are still to be revealed.
International attention and future directions: Belarus may become the biggest beneficiary
This incident has aroused widespread concern in the international community. Particular attention was paid to the possibility that Belarus could be the biggest beneficiary of the events. There is no definitive answer to where the rebels ultimately end up and what will happen in the long run. The development of this sudden incident is alarming, and the political, military and personal disputes behind it have brought it into the international spotlight.