The Chinese Olympic team drew 0-0 with the UAE in the first round of the Olympic Preliminary Round, and did not get off to a good start. This makes the situation of the Olympic team, which is trying to qualify, relatively delicate, and the match against India on the 9th must not only ensure victory first, but also score as many goals as possible. In terms of the entire qualifiers after the first round of the call, the Chinese Olympic team will probably need to win at least three goals against India in order to have a chance to reach the final stage as one of the four best group second places once they finish second in the group with goal difference.
(1) There are not many other groups in the first round
On the same day that the Chinese Olympic team drew 0-0 with the UAE, all 10 other groups were played. The surprising result was that the South Korean team in the second group lost 0-2 to Qatar on their doorstep, but because Qatar was the host of the final stage of the competition, all the group games they participated in did not count the results, so the Korean Olympic team did not send all the main players in this match, just as a technical and tactical exercise.
Another surprising match was the match between Saudi Arabia and Mongolia in Group 10, which took the lead from penalties in the first two minutes until the 97th minute to equalize, before scoring two goals in a row to win 3-1. Lebanon in the same group drew 1-1 with Cambodia. In addition, Oman's 2-0 victory over Syria in the first group was also a small upset. Other than that, the results of other games are normal, because the strength is relatively obvious, most of the strong teams win the opponent by big scores.
Therefore, after the first round of the battle, although the whole situation is not clear, judging from the results of the first round that has ended, it is possible to roughly extrapolate the future trend. After the Maldives team withdrew, in addition to the three teams in Group 7, where China is located, the second group (South Korea, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan), Group 9 (Australia, Tajikistan, Laos) and Group 11 (Turkmenistan, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei) are also three teams.
For these three groups, Myanmar drew 1-1 with Kyrgyzstan, which means that the second place in this group can be largely ruled out, unless South Korea loses, which is extremely unlikely.
Australia in the ninth group won 7-1 against Laos, and Tajik had a good chance of beating Laos in the second round on the 9th, and they could all make a goal difference. In the final round, if Tajikistan and Australia draw with each other, the two teams may qualify together on goal difference.
Turkmenistan in Group 11 won 4-0 against Chinese Taipei, and Indonesia could also score a goal difference if they also beat Chinese Taipei in the second round on the 9th. In the final round, if Indonesia and Turkmen are in peace, there is also the possibility of qualifying together on goal difference.
In this way, in the group of the same three teams, if the Chinese team cannot finish first in the group and only rank second in the group, they need to win at least 4 goals or more in the final match against India to compete with the second place in the ninth and 11th groups.
(2) Think of qualifying by at least three goals
Let's look at the other seven groups with four teams.
The top teams are currently ranked by goal difference with six teams with three points from the second place in the group, led by the number of goals difference, with Kuwait in the sixth group winning 4-0 in the first round. Iraq in the same group temporarily finished first thanks to a 13-0 victory over Macau. In the second round, Kuwait played Macau and Iraq against Timor-Leste, and it would not be a big problem for the two teams to win. Moreover, in terms of strength, the East Timor team may not have any problem winning the Macau team in the final round. So, assuming that Iraq and Kuwait draw in the final round, even if Kuwait is second, but because of the four goal difference against Timor-Leste, it may be at the top of the ranking, and even hope to be one of the four best group second.
In the comparison of the second place in the group, Iran in the fifth group and Yemen in the third group were second-placed, with a 3-0 victory over Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively. Uzbekistan in the fifth group is at the top of the group because they won 8-1 against Afghanistan in the first round, and will face Hong Kong, China in the second round on the 9th, while Iran will play Afghanistan. In terms of strength, there is no suspense that Iran and Uzbekistan will continue to win. However, in the final round of the 12th, the result of the match between Hong Kong and Afghanistan is unpredictable, no matter who is at the bottom of the group, Uzbekistan and Iran may have enough goal difference, that is, at least 3 goals. As a result, Iran and Uzbekistan also have the possibility of drawing and joining hands to qualify.
In the third group, Vietnam won 6-0 in the first round to top Guam. In the match on the 9th, Vietnam played against Singapore, Yemen against Guam, and there was basically no suspense for Vietnam and Yemen to win. Moreover, with the strength of the Singapore team, there is not much problem winning Guam in the final round. In this way, Vietnam and Yemen also have the possibility of drawing and qualifying together, because even if they finish second in the group, Yemen has at least three goal difference.
Fourth in the comparison of second place in each group was Oman in the first group, which beat Syria 2-0 in the first round. Jordan beat Brunei 9-0 to top the group. In the second round, Oman vs Brunei and Jordan vs Syria, and under normal circumstances, Oman and Jordan are expected to win. As a weak brigade, Brunei has basically no suspense at the bottom of the group. Therefore, in the final round, Jordan and Oman also have the possibility of drawing and qualifying together, and Oman's goal difference is 2.
In the comparison of the second place in each group, Oman was followed by Malaysia in the eighth group, also beating Bangladesh 2-0. Thailand beat the Philippines 5-0 in the first round to top the group. In the second round, Malaysia vs the Philippines, Thailand vs Bangladesh, and the victory of Malaysia and Thailand is also a high probability event. However, in the final round, it is difficult to judge who wins or loses between Bangladesh and the Philippines, mainly affecting the goal difference of the second place in the group. In this way, there is also a possibility that Malaysia and Thailand will draw. If the Philippines is bottom, assuming Malaysia is second in the group, the goal difference is 2.
As for the Palestine team in the fourth group to win 1-0 against Bahrain and Japan to beat Pakistan 6-0, in the second round, Japan directly faced Palestine, and the possibility of "put" the opponent is almost non-existent. Therefore, the second place in this group may not be able to reach 4 points in points, which can be ignored. Lebanon and Cambodia drew 1-1 in Group 10, and the two teams then played against the group seeded Saudi Arabia, and the possibility of taking points from the Saudi team is almost impossible.
(3) The National Olympic Games also need to consider less cards
So, taking into account the above, out of a total of 11 groups, there are currently 9 groups with 2nd place points that will likely reach 4 points, including the Chinese Olympic team. Assuming that China beats India and the UAE overwhelm China in terms of goal difference, China can only finish second in the group. With four points, it would take at least three goals to finish in the top four on goal difference. In other words, the bottom line for China against India is to win first, and then try to score at least three goals in order to hopefully finish second in the four best-performing groups.
Moreover, the Chinese team will also fight for the unclaimed card against the Indian team, because in the case of the same goal difference, the fair play points of each team will be competed, that is, 1 point will be deducted for 1 yellow card and 2 points for red card. After the first round, China was able to temporarily rank first on the points table because against the UAE, China had only one yellow card, while the UAE team had two yellow cards.
Therefore, the whole situation is still quite grim for the Olympic team. Of course, what exactly will happen in future games? No one can predict that the Chinese team can only prepare for the "worst", and in the game against India, they will do their best to win first and then score more.