According to his reasoning, in 2024, if 5G mobile phones can reach 60 million units, MediaTek and Qualcomm's shipments will be reduced by 60 million pieces, and TSMC will also be indirectly affected.
From the inference alone, there is a certain degree of rationality, the only contradiction is whether all the goods created by relying on the Kirin 9000S can reach a staggering 60 million pieces!
At present, the release of Huawei Mate 60 series is quite hot, the market originally expected sales, only 10 million units, the result is now repeatedly raised expectations, the latest news is that a group of suppliers, has exploded the production capacity to 17 million units, a year later, the total sales can reach what extent, now no one is sure.
Coupled with the notebook, honor mobile phone, and the possible arrival of the Hongmeng PC in the second half of the year, it is very likely to promote the Kirin 9000S production capacity explosion.
However, expectations are expected, before the dust settles, whether it can reach a staggering 60 million pieces, is currently uncertain, I personally feel that as long as it reaches half of the expected, that is, 30 million pieces, it can already bring an unexpected impact to the United States, a kind of impact from physical to financial.
Since 2018, Huawei due to the continuous blockade, mobile phone business almost comprehensive shrinkage, and this lost share, other domestic mobile phone manufacturers thought it was a good time, but no matter how hoarse to hit the high-end market, everyone seems to not buy it, in the end, all mobile phone manufacturers, only compete for about 20% of the share, Apple monopolized the remaining 80%.
You may wonder why I want to introduce such a separate paragraph, because the rise of US stocks is closely related to him.
The U.S. stock market in the past two years is quite weird, before the epidemic, after more than a decade of rising, the valuation has been in the second position in history, the sense of bubble is quite sufficient, which is also an important reason why I have always been not optimistic about the U.S. stocks, the next three years of ups and downs, coupled with bank failures, nearly 6% high interest rates, it seems that the U.S. stock market is in crisis.
Here is an additional sentence, valuation and interest rates show a high degree of correlation, simply put, assuming that the interest rate is zero, even if the price-earnings ratio of U.S. stocks reaches 100, U.S. stocks can not be said to be expensive, because zero represents unlimited costs and money, the valuation of U.S. stocks naturally has to rise infinitely, on the contrary, the higher the interest rate, the higher the cost of money, the valuation of U.S. stocks should also be reduced, because the risk-free interest reaches nearly 6%, the profitability of risky assets, if it cannot reach more than twice as much, why should investors take this risk?
After saying this, we must be wondering, why are so many bearish, and the US stock market still goes against common sense and has not fallen?
In my opinion, there are two main reasons.
First, in the past few years, too many dollars have been printed, the silver in the hands of the Americans, but on the verge of exhaustion, has not yet reached the point of exhaustion, the enterprise side is not willing to lag behind, since the interest rate hike, the US government has been shouting interest rate hikes on the face, and has been privately distributing money through fiscal stimulus, which makes a large number of American companies maintain at least the superficial growth rate.
Second, the main force of this round of U.S. stock market rally is not small enterprises with a 54% surge in bankruptcy in August, but Apple, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Qualcomm, these super large technology companies, in the past few years, are the beneficiaries of direct or indirect blockade of Huawei.
What meta-universe, GPT, AI, room temperature superconductors, cancer drugs, wave after wave of new concepts in the later stage, people are overwhelmed, but only NVIDIA's AI, is a real performance increase (GPT has entered a downward period, many American media believe that 2024 is his big year), but don't forget that he also benefits from Huawei's blockade.
Under the combined leadership of the above two models, although the US bond interest rate is high, the US stock market has also been lively for a while.
But this is also the biggest problem of the US stock market, Jun will prosper, will die, blockade Huawei has allowed many large enterprises in the United States, gained huge benefits, when Huawei returns, they will suffer huge damage.
Remember that before 2018, Apple's profits have entered a significant downhill period, since Huawei was blocked, profits have suddenly begun to rise, and then it has reached a new high every year, and the market value has reached an astonishing 3 trillion, and his mobile phone revenue accounts for 48% of the total revenue, and the proportion of profit is as high as 85%, it can be said that although Apple sells a lot of things, mobile phones are still his pillar products.
Since 2014, Microsoft released the Windows Azure cloud computing platform, cloud services and server products have become Microsoft's main business, with a revenue ratio of more than 30%, and Windows revenue has retreated to 12%, which is also the core reason why Microsoft's market value has reached new highs in recent years.
Then there is NVIDIA, under the hot blessing of the AI track, the market value has reached 1.2 trillion US dollars, Qualcomm is not so lucky, I thought that without Huawei, their chips can be sold better, but the good days did not last long, the United States banned sales, inexplicably lost a big customer, the latest announced third quarter revenue is quite dismal, revenue of 8.451 billion US dollars, down 22.72% year-on-year, net profit of 1.735 billion US dollars, down 53.49% year-on-year.
In general, these four American companies, is Huawei after being blocked, the most intuitive impact, the first three in the NASDAQ weight is even more weighty, 12.5% of Apple, 12.9% of Microsoft, 7% of NVIDIA, a total of more than 32.7%, it is no exaggeration to say that such a high weight, saying that they determine the direction of NASDAQ, is not wrong at all.
Writing here, everyone must have noticed something, yes, these companies and Huawei's business is highly overlapping.
If the Mate60 series sells well, Apple's mobile phone customers will inevitably decrease, after all, there are so many high-end users, you eat more, he naturally eats less.
Microsoft's system, servers, cloud computing platform, Huawei also has, in 2022 Huawei's total revenue of 642.3 billion yuan, HUAWEI CLOUD's annual revenue of 45.3 billion yuan, accounting for 7.05%, not very high, but 150% growth rate, or quite impactful, PC and server, in the second half of the year, with Kirin 9000S, is expected to restart.
NVIDIA's AI and Qualcomm's chips, not to mention, before iFLYTEK founder Liu Qingfeng, publicly said that Huawei plans to launch an artificial intelligence graphics processing unit (GPU) comparable to NVIDIA A100 in 2024, according to him, the performance of this GPU is very powerful, enough to run GPT-3 and GPT-4 and other large language models, and has a strong performance reserve, if the above news is true, NVIDIA will end its monopoly position in 2024.
So 2024 is a very critical year, if the reborn Huawei chip, with its strong competitiveness as always, is pulling a group of small brothers behind, will it have an all-round impact on the US giants?
Following this line of thinking, the earnings growth rate of US companies, assuming a synchronous decline, combined with the high US bond interest rate, can the average price-earnings ratio of 40 times be maintained? What happens if it can't, and the trend becomes protracted, and U.S. stocks lose their biggest upward momentum?
Therefore, Huawei's return is not only the impact of the physical level of the two countries, but also the financial side of the United States.
Of course, we can't just talk about the good side, the United States also has its own means.
On September 6, Sullivan publicly stated: "In any case, the United States should continue to implement the 'small courtyard high wall' technical restriction measures", and Gailage of the "U.S.-China Competition Special Committee" of the US House of Representatives said on the 6th that the new chip in Huawei's mobile phone "may violate trade restrictions" and called on the Department of Commerce to "stop exporting all technology to Huawei and SMIC, which manufactures the chip."
Objectively speaking, what technology Huawei uses, whether it is related to the United States, I, an outsider, is not clear, but I can guess that whether there is a relationship with the United States is not so important, according to the lower limit of the United States, as long as you can catch a little clue, he has a way to let you have a relationship with him, followed by various strains, to ensure that the opponent can be uprooted.
But you don't have to worry too much, for a manufacturing country that can operate autonomously, the blockade is not as terrible as imagined, Britain under the Napoleonic blockade, the United States under the British blockade, why are they all failures?
First, the essence of trade is exchange, you have the goods that the other party needs, then trade cannot be severed.
Second, the speed of innovation can never catch up with the speed of catching up, it may take three hours for you to think about a problem, and I am following your train of thought, it may only take thirty minutes.
On the other hand, the real solution to this mutual torment between China and the United States is only a scientific and technological breakthrough, and it is also the kind of revolutionary breakthrough that affects the world, if the United States can complete it in a relatively short time, raising interest rates or something, are all minor problems.
The essence of interest rate reduction is to reduce the cost of using money, so that people who could not make money in the market can have more profit space, and interest rate hikes are the opposite, but if there is a technological breakthrough, the profit in the market suddenly rises to more than 10%, then 6% interest can not stop the operation of the economy, you can refer to the Fed interest rate hike in 1994, under the blessing of the Internet, staged a very perfect soft landing, by the way, in 1997, but also the Asian financial crisis.
So the core of the question is, does the United States have this ability? The United States itself is the world's largest capital gathering place, and with the blessing of the dollar, if he is fully committed to the next round of industrial revolution, in theory, has a probability far beyond other countries, innovation is essentially a trial and error process, the stronger your capital, the higher the probability of success.
However, there is also a problem here, now innovation and manufacturing are highly separated.
In our view, technological breakthroughs are important, but in the eyes of the United States, they are not necessarily the most important.
The key to the United States surpassing the United Kingdom was that it could seamlessly connect the second industrial revolution when it was already a manufacturing power, and then surpassed the United Kingdom to dominate the third industrial revolution. Why did Britain, which has a stronger heritage, lose?
Strong capital and a lot of creativity are indispensable factors for new goods, but if you want to sell them all over the world, you must eventually move from the laboratory to maturity and reduce its cost, and if you do not have strong manufacturing capabilities, you cannot control the manufacturing industry of other countries, and you may eventually be completely exploded by the production capacity of the United States, just like the United Kingdom.
Therefore, suppressing the mainland is essentially to see this clearly, he wants monopoly profits, not sharing, so the struggle between the two countries may continue for a long time, until one side takes the lead in completing the scientific and technological revolution.
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