It started to go up
Text/Zimu
Since the landing of "recognizing housing without recognizing loans" in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the national property market is expected to be substantially reversed.
Not only first-tier cities, but even friends in third- and fourth-tier cities are discussing whether housing prices will rise sharply again.
After all, in the past, the path of "ignition on the front line, explosion all over the plate" has been repeated several rounds.
As for how to rise, whether it can rise, I will talk about it later.
"Guang-Deep-Up-North", it took a total of 56 hours to recognize the house and not to recognize the loan, which greatly exceeded market expectations, and from the perspective of landing speed, this round of stimulation is barbaric and disorderly, and there is a conventional routine of one-knife flow.
Theoretically, it should be to catch a wave of "golden nine silver ten", favorable policies superimposed on the traditional peak season, play the effect of three or two thousand dollars, and help the recovery of the economic market at the end of the year.
Now it seems that the effect is indeed good.
According to reports, after the policy landed, the volume of viewing and trading in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose sharply.
In the first weekend of the Beijing property market, new house sales reached nearly 9 billion, and the one-day transaction volume caught up with half of August, and Beijing Lianjia completed 1/3 of the previous month's transaction in three days. Many real estate in Shanghai sold for a month's worth a day.
The sales office was filled with people, and the developer took advantage of the previous discount and even increased the price overnight.
This approach makes buyers who "buy up but not buy down" lose the basis for judgment, and many are forced to get on the car in a tense atmosphere.
Takeaway riders, couriers, and Didi drivers took off their vests when they heard the news, sprinted 100 meters into the intermediary store, and called the existing customers who had been maintained for a long time.
Overnight, it was as if it was back on the eve of 2015.
The uprising in the north has made people who sing about the empty property market very depressed, and they still do not understand why the population and economic data are falling, and the property market can still rise?
Resisting and doubting life...
In fact, fundamentally, I still don't understand the underlying logic of real estate.
01
In July, I discussed in the article "The Great Counteroffensive in the Property Market":
Many people ask me, if first-tier cities are liberalized, will the property market rise?
The answer is yes.
From 2017 to 2022, the four major first-tier cities, 5 years of social security, housing and loans, purchase restrictions are extremely brutal...
Even so, it has also run a big rise and fall market, taking Beijing as an example, the peak of house prices in 2017 was more than 70,000 per square meter.
Later, policies such as "housing recognition and loans" were introduced, and the property market was cut by 30%, but later, in the case of extreme suppression, it began to rise in the opposite direction, and house prices rose all the way back to more than 70,000 per square meter, what does it prove?
Solid purchasing power through cycles.
The country's main funds, high-net-worth groups, and core scarce resources are all in first-tier cities, and continue to siphon the country's rich people with high intensity, as long as they are released, people will still bless the assets of first-tier cities in order to occupy resources.
In the face of absolute purchasing power + absolute resources, any negative can be swallowed, this logic has been true in the past, and it still holds true in the second half of real estate.
Of course, the four first-tier cities also have primary and secondary differences.
It can be seen from the liberalization of housing and loan recognition that the north is much more active than Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which stems from three reasons:
1. Total amount of funds
2. Resident leverage ratio
3、old/new money
These three factors make up a model that applies to all cities in the country. (The following focuses on the analysis, if you are not interested, you can skip to the next part.) ）
The total amount of funds (the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions) means the total amount of deposits in RMB and foreign currencies.
It reflects a city's ability to absorb funds.
We know that money is the driving force and the result of the economy. How much money a city can gather shows the city's comprehensive strength and development potential.
In terms of total funds (balance of deposits in local and foreign currencies of financial institutions), in the first half of 2023, Beijing will be nearly 24 trillion yuan, Shanghai nearly 20 trillion yuan, Shenzhen 13 trillion yuan, Guangzhou 8.5 trillion yuan.
The same frontline, but the real rich people, most of them hide in the north.
And in contrast, the economy is down, but most urban deposits are increasing, and the total deposit increase in the north has reached 3.7 trillion.
Beijing is the most exaggerated, saving a total amount of Shijiazhuang in a year. When the good hits, these funds can enter the market to revitalize the market.
The leverage ratio of residents, which is more important, measures the degree of overdraft of purchasing power. The higher the leverage, the greater the debt pressure, and the weakening of natural purchasing power.
This is related to the policy, the previous north-to-non-general line was set too high, people pried leverage to buy houses, got not much money, want to add can't add.
And Guangshen, the previous loan limit threshold is extremely low, non-general is useless, people want to borrow, in the real estate is more popular in the past few years, advance overdraft credit space, the property market down, a swoop, 20-30%, the down payment is gone, sad.
The last ones are old money and new money.
The so-called old money is that the city has accumulated thick and there are more rich natives. Beijing is the center of "power" and Shanghai is the center of "gold".
In Shanghai, for example, the indigenous people have money and have all eaten real estate dividends, and most of the families are tens of millions of assets.
After the epidemic, young people from other places who went to Shanghai to struggle and wanted to stay in Shanghai also had a relatively solid family. Moreover, Shanghai is also the first stop for international students to return to China, but those who have gone abroad for gold plating in recent years, the family conditions are not bad.
The strength of the indigenous people and the "rich second generation" influx from other places have formed a strong supporting force, which is another logic of the northbound market.
New money has two meanings, one is new industries, such as the Internet, e-commerce, emerging technology industries born of urban upstarts.
Another meaning is those who were not born into wealthy families or grew up in wealthy cultures, but earned wealth independently through knowledge and hard work.
Shenzhen and Hangzhou are typical upstart centers, but in recent years, the situation has been turbulent, the track has been involving, the economy has declined, the belief in high income has been crushed, and New Money has been severely hit.
Old money and new money have their own advantages and disadvantages, the former has a thick foundation, a stable earning channel, and a relatively conservative investment thinking; The latter has a thin foundation, the money-making channel relies on emerging industries, and the investment thinking is relatively radical.
According to the logic of urban development, the economy is up, and the new blood of new money is the most creative value, which will fission and grow more upstart groups, helping to accelerate urban growth.
But it is also the easiest to speculate in order to pursue high profits, so as to fall into the fire, it turns out that the three brothers of speculation are Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Hefei, and later Nanjing replaced Hefei, the third oldest.
After several years of profound education, the three brothers were half of their lives, and at this time, the solid purchasing power of Old money is the most solid support force in the city, and they are comprehensive with each other.
Over time, new money will slowly become old money, and the precipitation of the entire city will show results.
The total amount of funds, residents' leverage ratio, old/new money, and "money and debt" are three factors integrated with each other, quantum entanglement, in fact, is the thinking of the higher dimension of "industry-population", which determines whether a city can catch up with this wave of market.
02
After going north, it is deep and wide, and it will not be long. After all, the first line is still the first line, and the foundation is thick.
The first line rises, and the second line builds the bottom.
The first to radiate is the urban agglomeration where the first-tier cities are located.
Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo, Nanjing and other key second-tier cities next to Shanghai need attention, Suzhou and Ningbo can go to the bottom, Hangzhou and Nanjing need to observe the end of the year because the leverage ratio is too high.
Hangzhou because of the Asian Games favorable, investment space enlarged, economic recovery will be faster than Nanjing, Nanjing this wave is a little difficult, if the mood comes up, to actively unwind.
Tianjin and Shijiazhuang next to Beijing are ready to get on the bus, and the rest does not matter.
The Greater Bay Area is the focus, because national strategies such as the Maritime Silk Road, financial openness and innovation, the new template of one country, two systems, the international free trade port experiment, etc., must be tested and implemented here.
The second change is related to the national fortune, the Greater Bay Area accounts for half, Shenzhen Chao fell to the bottom, we must hurry up to get on the train, the second echelon of Zhuhai, Foshan, Dongguan must also grasp, other do not worry.
Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi'an, this kind of provincial capital leader with a strong energy level, equivalent to the first-tier cities in the mainland and the region, actively get on the train, and the surrounding areas do not need to worry.
Chongqing, Qingdao, Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou and Jinan are also relatively strong second-tier cities, but because of the large inventory backlog, it will be good for hedging, and the plate rotation is relatively slow.
Xiamen's wave may not be able to keep up, the sharp correction in the past three years has made Fujian rich people begin to re-examine this place, coupled with the overall leverage of residents, the recovery speed will be slower.
Hefei can focus on the fact that it belongs to the second-tier cities with very little inventory, the government regulation is good, and after several years of correction, housing prices are more realistic.
Changsha can go up, the city has always been regarded as a price depression, in the past it was a pacesetter in regulation, but in fact, housing prices have been secretly rising for 32 months. This means that local attitudes towards housing prices have changed positively and negatively.
When Changsha fell at the level of "housing and living without speculation", the logic that real estate is a pillar industry of the country has been confirmed again. Space is limited, more review I put on the planet, everyone has time to read.
The cities mentioned above can be on the top, and the window of opportunity will not be open for too long.
Other cities do not need to rush at present, the plate rotation takes time. And a city also needs a transaction volume to rise for 2-3 months to reflect the housing price level.
You can observe the trading trend from September to October before making a decision.
In September-October, if the deal is still half-dead, then the city is basically sentenced to death. How a patient who could not even save the last round of electric shocks got out of the ICU alive.
I can only watch others go to KTV.
03
This round of buying a house, you must be cautious, and I have talked about a formula before:
About 100 square meters, small three-bedroom, elevator, sub-new house, low density, subway plate, good school, office building business district... A few can be beaten, is a few.
This round of improvement is absolutely mainstream, and the assets above the waist of the city have a good appreciation effect. If you can't buy a good house, you don't need to worry, don't follow other people's emotions, take over the old and broken.
Self-occupation does not matter, but everyone who considers maintaining and appreciating must carefully think about what kind of urban resources can be captured by living in a house.
The house is a key to obtaining resources, scarcity determines value, and value is expressed by price.
So in the past two days, many people have asked, can I buy a house? Can it go up for money?
I really can't answer, because I don't know what kind of house your money can buy, what kind of resources can be obtained, and what the underlying demands are.
This is the most real logical inventory.
The good is coming, the market is turning, and the property market is the same as the stock market:
Either believe in being ahead and getting ahead of the car; Either choose not to believe, leave the scene completely, wash your hands and watch.
Remember to wander left and right, people are cloudy, and those who choose to buy a house because of the emotional disturbance around them are the next strategy.
The opening of first-tier cities has brought together funds across the country, but due to purchase restrictions, expectations and capital levels will spill over to second-tier cities, forming a large-scale plate rotation.
From 2015 to 2023, 8 years seems to correspond to the big cycle of real estate, and I have to believe in the power of the cycle.
In the short term, this wave will come quickly, but it will not be very large.
The effect will be more radical, because in the past two years, the central bank has been overissuing money, M2 has soared, interest rates have reached a record low, it is easy to guide funds into the first and second lines, into the market speculation.
The probability of a general increase nationwide is 0.
Only when the real economic problems are solved, employment is abundant, and income expectations are stable, can we consider the general rise in the country, which we must clearly understand, of course, and the population...
In this round of the market, high-level cities seek appreciation, medium-level cities seek value preservation, and low-level cities seek to unhedge to ensure safety.
Whether you just need it or not, whether you have investment needs or not, it doesn't matter, the important thing is that you can move and actively seek asset hedging.
The situation was fleeting for a moment.