Recent military demonstrations against the Taiwan authorities have aroused widespread concern, with tactical ballistic missiles and long-range concentrated fire taking a combat posture on the beaches of the Taiwan Strait. However, the US military's military provocations continued, and the aircraft carrier continued to approach Taiwan, and even the distance between the Chinese aircraft carrier "Shandong" was once shortened to only 200 kilometers. This raises the question: Although the rumor of "Dongfeng Express mission must be achieved" exists in the sinking of the US nuclear aircraft carrier, why does the US military still insist on using nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to carry out provocative actions?
The answer may lie in the U.S. military's judgment of the power of "anti-ship ballistic missiles," which they consider to be within defensible limits. After all, the speed of a nuclear aircraft carrier is its advantage in itself, and tracking a fast-moving target at sea and hitting it with a ballistic missile is like the problem of "shooting a bird from 100 kilometers away". It is worth noting that as early as a decade ago, experts from the RAND Corporation mentioned China's "ballistic missile threat" and stressed the importance of two of them. China allegedly views such missiles as "particularly effective weapons," perhaps one of the reasons why the U.S. military insists on using nuclear carriers for provocations.
The RAND Corporation first mentioned the DF-15 ballistic missile, also known as the CSS-6, which is one of China's main theater ballistic missiles. It is said that the basic version of this type of missile can carry a 500-kilogram warhead and strike within 600 kilometers, and its modification may even threaten Kadena Air Base. The company said that the early models of the DF-15 had poor accuracy, with a circular probability error of 150-500 meters, but the improved version has reduced the accuracy to 30~50 meters and is equipped with sub-mother warheads, posing a significant threat to aircraft on the tarmac. RAND estimates that China has 315-355 DF-15 missiles and continues to produce them.
However, it is unknown how many of these missiles are extended-range or equipped with sub-mother warheads. In 2015, the RAND Corporation released the "Comparison of U.S. and Chinese Military Forces 1996-2017" report, which provides updated data that is still worth referring to, although the authenticity is questionable. According to the report, in 2010, China had 350~400 DF-15 basic and improved A and B missiles, most of which were deployed in areas near the Taiwan Strait. The range of the A missile remained unchanged, but the warhead weight increased to 600 kg and the circular probability error was reduced to 30 meters.
As an important improvement, the range of the B missile can reach 600-800 kilometers at a warhead weight of 600 kg, and the circular probability error is reduced to a staggering 5 meters. This set the world's record for the highest hit accuracy of a tactical ballistic missile, essentially becoming a precision-guided strike weapon. However, the total number of missiles does not appear to have changed significantly. Even in 2017, the RAND Corporation predicted that China had about 1,200 DF-15s and the shorter-range DF-11 series of missiles, of which nearly two-thirds were DF-11s, and the DF-15 number remained at about 400. The analysis believes that the DF-11 series missiles with a range of 300 kilometers are obviously aimed at Taiwan Island targets, while the DF-15 has the ability to threaten the Japanese island of Okinawa. For aircraft carriers, China may have other "sharp weapons".
To sum up, although the rumors of "Dongfeng Express mission must be achieved" have attracted attention to a certain extent, the US military still believes that nuclear aircraft carriers have a relative advantage in the face of "anti-ship ballistic missiles". Missile accuracy and threat range limitations may be the main reasons for the continued use of nuclear-powered carriers by the U.S. military. However, with the continuous development of technology, the improvement of missiles and the increase in number, the situation may change, further affecting the military balance in the region. Text/PY
However, the arena of war is not only the physical world filled with gunfire, but also the information space. With the rapid development of science and technology, cyber warfare has also become a card on the table of international politics. Information spreads quickly, and virtual attacks and defenses can influence real-world decisions in an instant. In this digital age, cyberattacks are no longer a distant future, but a reality of the present.
The U.S. military may know this, as cyber warfare can also be another way for them to challenge their adversaries. While limitations on the practical application of ballistic missiles remain, cyberattacks can do more with less. Through network infiltration, it is possible to quickly obtain intelligence on opponents and even manipulate their key facilities. This covert attack method has caused the shadow of war to spread rapidly around the world, which also provides more tactical options for traditional military forces such as nuclear aircraft carriers.
However, whether it is missiles or networks, advances in technology have brought another layer of conundrum: upgrades in defense. How to protect nuclear aircraft carriers from ballistic missiles? How to prevent cyber attacks and protect critical information from theft? These questions are before military leaders and technologists. Advances in technology have brought new tools, but they have also made national security more complex.
As historical pioneers have emphasized, an arms race is never the best way to solve a problem. Although military forces such as nuclear aircraft carriers guarantee national security to a certain extent, their potential danger and impact on global peace cannot be denied. In the information age, the damage of war is no longer limited to the battlefield, but affects the lives of more people.
Perhaps we should re-examine the true meaning of military provocations. Only by resolving disputes through dialogue, cooperation and diplomatic means can we avoid intensifying contradictions and falling into an unmanageable situation. Although military power is necessary, peace is the fundamental guarantee for the prosperity of the country and the happiness of the people.
In this era full of uncertainties, we should cherish peace even more and strive to integrate the concept of cooperation into all aspects of international affairs. Only in this way can we protect the future of humanity in the wave of technological progress and avoid repeating the mistakes of history. After all, war is never an ideal option, and peace should always be our pursuit. Text/PY