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In recent years, the mainland's chip industry has developed rapidly, but the United States and other Western countries seem to be jealous of this and try their best to curb the development of mainland chips. This containment is almost crazy, bottomless and unscrupulous. In response to this situation, the mainland recently imposed a gallium germanium ban, a move that has caused widespread shocks before it was officially implemented.
According to industry experts, the price of germanium in Western countries has soared to $1,390 per kilogram, up 4 percentage points from before. The situation is even more worrisome for the gallium market, which has risen to $332 per kilogram, a full 20 percent increase from the previous month. However, these prices are only official guidance prices, and there is already a shortage of supply in the actual market, and this price increase trend is expected to continue.
Faced with this situation, many countries began to actively stock up on goods, hoping to alleviate the crisis in this way. However, this practice of "sitting on the mountain and eating nothing" is not destined to last. After all, gallium germanium is an indispensable raw material for semiconductor chip manufacturing, and mastering them means mastering the key to semiconductor production. The gallium germanium ban imposed by the mainland has given us the initiative and voice in this field. This will undoubtedly be a fatal blow to those countries that rely on chip manufacturing, and will also force them to sit down and negotiate with China.
According to customs data cited by Caixin, the mainland became the world's leading producer of gallium and germanium products in 2022. Our main export destinations for gallium products include Japan, Germany and the Netherlands; Germanium products cover Japan, France, Germany and the United States. We have mastered the "lifeline" of semiconductor production, so where will these countries go?
The United States, as one of the countries most active in curbing the development of mainland chips, is now in an embarrassing situation. The U.S. Department of Defense revealed that although they have some strategic reserves of germanium, they do not have enough stock of gallium. So the United States came up with a rather peculiar method: rummage through garbage cans and recycling gallium from waste. According to their plan, other minerals or more large quantities of major minerals are recovered by reprocessing waste from mine tailings or refining processes. I have to say that this approach is really ridiculous, and it also shows the helplessness of the United States in this regard.
And Japan, a country that has been working closely with the United States, is also beginning to feel the pressure. According to the semiconductor industry network, Japan dominates the GaAs substrate market, but the implementation of the gallium ban will directly affect their dominant position. Germany, on the other hand, has to face import restrictions from China because it does not produce gallium and germanium-related products itself, which has had a certain impact on its economy.
The Dutch Foreign Ministry said the impact of export controls on gallium-germanium-related items on the European and Dutch economies would depend on how China enforced the ban. This statement seems to reveal that the Netherlands also wants to maintain cooperation with the mainland in some way. As for South Korea, their situation is relatively difficult. Due to its small gallium germanium reserves, South Korea's semiconductor industry is facing a serious shortage of rare metal reserves, which makes their development in this field face great challenges.
In short, the gallium germanium ban implemented by the mainland has not only changed the market pattern of semiconductor materials, but also put the former "allies" in a difficult situation. For the mainland, this is a victory in the game, we have the right to speak, and we have greater bargaining chips. However, the future path is still full of uncertainty, and the development of the global semiconductor industry will also enter a new stage.
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