"Military Sub-plane" author: Taibai
It has been some days since there was a "coup" d'état in Niger. Since there are 1,000 American soldiers and 1,500 French soldiers in Niger, the regular army of the Niger coup military government must not be able to defeat it, so they have been counting on the help of the "Wagner" group. The "Wagner" group had already planned to intervene. On August 24, Prigozhin also filmed a video in Africa, seemingly planning to "play a role" here, but on August 25, he just returned to Moscow when a plane crash occurred, and the core leadership of the "Wagner" group was "one pot end".
▲ Prigozhin in Africa, image source: Internet
Today, although the "Wagner" group can no longer count on it, the anti-colonial road of the Niger people must continue. As early as August 25, the military junta in Niger had already issued an ultimatum to France: they asked the French ambassador in Niger to "go home". On August 28, France rejected the request of the Nigerien military junta and forced it to stay in its capital, Niamey. As a result, the Nigerien authorities cut off the water and electricity at the French embassy. Now that there has been no water and electricity for 3 days, France still has not come up with a strategy to deal with it.
▲ Nigerien people participating in the demonstration, image source: Internet
In fact, there are not many options in front of the French now, which are nothing more than two paths. First, France admitted that it was no longer able to intervene in the "coup" in Niger, so it had to evacuate the French embassy staff as requested by the Nigerien military authorities, and then slowly consider whether to withdraw its troops as well. Second, France is not convinced and unwilling to give up Niger, a French "nuclear battery", so France needs to prepare for a possible military intervention. However, the decision to start a war is, of course, very good, but if you can't win, it's really two things. Because the current overall situation is quite unfavorable for France.
▲ Algerian Army, image source: Internet
Once France chooses to intervene in the situation in Niger, and it needs to use military means, it will naturally not be able to come completely on its own, and it will definitely have to pull a large number of allies to help. Let's first look at France's allies who can help. Now relatively close to Niger are the ECOWAS countries. But not all of these countries support France, and only five countries have agreed to participate in the war: Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, and Guinea-Bissau. None of these countries has a very strong military force, and they face hostility from another group of African countries, including Niger itself, as well as Burkina Faso and Mali.
Algeria has also previously said that it does not want war in Niger, otherwise it will help. If Algeria's statement is true, because its military power is too strong, it is likely to make the French "completely depleted". Therefore, what Algeria's attitude is is very worthy of France's good speculation. African countries that decided to stand on the side of France, their military equipment is not very good, and when it really comes to the point of fighting, it is estimated that it depends on the French themselves. Specifically, Nigeria on the French side has purchased Chinese Thunder Dragon fighters, which were delivered by the Chinese side in December 2020, but the total number is only three.
▲Nigerian "Thunder Dragon" fighter, image source: Internet
Nigeria also has 9 J-7, 24 M346, 11 Alpha, 17 L-39 trainers, 6 MB-339 trainers, 6 EMB Toucanos, 6 DA-40 trainers and 10 MF-396 trainers. But most of the trainer aircraft basically can't go to the battlefield, and the ones that can really be used are the 3 fighters, which are simply shabby. What is even more shabby is that Benin, Senegal, Guinea-Bissau and Côte d'Ivoire combined do not have a single fighter. In terms of the army, Nigeria has 160,000 people, a total of 8 combat divisions, divided into 7 infantry divisions and 1 armored division, equipped with French AMX-10 wheeled armored vehicles, ERC-90, VT-4, T-72, T-54, Wicks MK3 tanks, etc., a total of about 500 vehicles. Although the combat effectiveness of African armies is generally worse, once the Nigerian army starts, it still has a very big advantage over the only two Su-25s in Niger and the army's two special operations companies and nine assault battalions. Nigeria is not a big problem to single out Niger, but once Algeria chooses to enter the war, the French side will suffer.
▲ M346 light fighter produced in Italy, image source: network
The French army has not experienced battles with the regular armies of other countries for many years, on the contrary, it has always been "abusing vegetables". During Operation Seral in 2013, although the French army decided to send troops to Mali, the 4,000-kilometer delivery distance completely stumped the French. To complete the strategic airlift, France borrowed transport aircraft from more than a dozen other countries, as well as American intelligence networks and reconnaissance aircraft.
In hindsight, the Allies helped France complete 40 percent of its strategic airlift missions. The French army is certainly much better off today than it was a decade ago, with France having its own 22 A-400M, 43 tactical transport aircraft including C-130 and Casa CN235, more than 200 Rafale fighters and the Welcome 2000 series. In Chad, France also has a 950-strong "Sparrowhawk Force", equipped with more than 70 wheeled tanks and armored vehicles of various types, which can "outpost" French military intervention in Niger. However, this time the French army will face not only the Nigerien army, but also El Giorgia. Although the military power of these African countries is not strong, it is not comparable to that of terrorists.
▲ French A-400M in an airdrop, image source: network
After all, the French army in Niger will face a ground battle, not an ordinary anti-terrorist operation. The French had to quickly arrive and penetrate Niger for the first time, and then behead key members of the Nigerien military government. In addition to facing the regular army of Niger, the French army also had to face the angry ordinary people of Niger. In the street battles of house-by-house, the French army may not be able to make any bargains. But since the Nigerien cannot pin their hopes on Wagner, it will not work to rely entirely on Algeria. The Niger authorities still chose to expel the French ambassador despite the possible absence of Wagner's help, and we can also understand how resentful the Niger people are towards the French. In short, this time France is forced into a dilemma, whether France will really be hot, we will wait and see.