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Although the United States has repeatedly reiterated its support for "Taiwan independence" and expressed its willingness to work with China to manage differences, in fact, the United States has never really fulfilled these commitments. It is particularly noteworthy that after the DPP's defeat in the election, the US government quickly accelerated its intervention in the Taiwan issue and frequently took "tough" measures.
Recently, Biden signed a bill called the National Defense Authorization Act, through which the United States increased military sales to Taiwan and gave Taiwan equal treatment to the "state." This is almost a blatant provocation to confront Chinese mainland. Some people believe that the purpose of the United States is not simply to profit from the Taiwan authorities, but to gradually dissolve China's bottom line and test China's response through constant challenges. However, according to the three joint communiqués signed between China and the United States, the United States should reduce arms sales to Taiwan year by year, but the reality is that the United States not only failed to abide by its commitments, but also violated the agreement many times, openly supporting Taiwan's armaments, ignoring its provocations to Chinese mainland.
In addition to arms sales to Taiwan, the United States is also actively building an "arsenal" in the Taiwan region to provide more rapid support in the event of an attack on Taiwan. Although Taiwan has failed to obtain weapons and equipment supplied by the United States on time, this does not mean that the United States is deceiving Taiwan. In fact, the United States will continue to improve the combat readiness of Taiwan's military for as long as the situation requires it and prepare for a possible conflict with Chinese mainland.
The Chinese side has always stressed that it will go all out to promote the process of peaceful reunification of the two sides of the strait, but it has also made it clear that if the Taiwan issue touches on the serious situation stipulated in the Anti-Secession Law, China will not rule out using non-peaceful means to resolve it. China is prepared for the worst, and the United States is considering a similar scenario. Recently, the Center for Strategic and Research at the Washington, D.C., think tank released a military simulation report across the Taiwan Strait, which simulates the various scenarios the PLA might face when it regains Taiwan.
The report claims that if the PLA takes decisive action in 2026, the U.S., Japan and Taiwan authorities may win, but at a very high cost. Despite the various scenarios presented in the report, in most cases Taiwan can achieve victory with the help of the United States and Japan, the United States and Japan could lose at least two aircraft carriers and dozens of warships, and about 3,200 American troops will be killed in three weeks. Even if the United States wins, it risks a shaken global standing and a paralysis of the military.
At the same time, the fate of Taiwan's military is also worrying, all warships in Taiwan will be completely destroyed, and Taiwan's economy will fall into a long recovery period in the event of power and lack of oil. The report also estimates that the PLA could lose 138 capital warships and more than 150 fighter jets, as well as about 10,000 soldiers.
The report stresses that if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will not be able to receive outside assistance, so Taiwan must have sufficient military resources at all times. This view reveals the intentions of the United States, whose constant arms sales to Taiwan actually prepare for a possible conflict.
As the world's two largest economies and nuclear powers, the possibility of direct conflict between China and the United States is very small. For the United States, the pursuit of the best interests is always central. The United States is unlikely to sacrifice its own interests because it is not in line with its usual style. The extreme scenario deduction of American think tanks is difficult to achieve in reality. The United States often has a narrow mindset and constantly fanned war sentiments, but this approach will only accelerate the process of cross-strait reunification in the end, and the United States will become the ultimate loser.
China will continue to take a firm stand on issues involving sovereignty and territorial integrity. The DPP authorities' attempt to "resist reunification with force" and seek intervention from external forces should be eliminated at an early date. China will never back down on the issue of safeguarding national unity.
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