As Philippine President Marcos Jr. arrived in the United States for a state visit, U.S. President Joe Biden personally sent him a firm commitment that tied Washington's defense ties with the Philippines, including the South China Sea. This oath to defend the allies, hailed as "rock solid", declares the firm willingness of both sides to cooperate. However, behind this scene lies an intricate international political calculation. Behind the light of this visit, there seems to be a hidden worry of international politics.
Marcos Jr.'s "gains" from his trip to the United States were clearly satisfying to him, but he knew that if the Philippines acted together with the United States in the South China Sea, it would inevitably attract China's dissatisfaction. Therefore, Marcos Jr. subtly stated on the international stage that "the Philippines will maintain a balance between China and the United States" in an attempt to calm China's unease. In fact, as early as the Philippine government's opening of military bases to the United States, there were observers who worried that such an overly reliant foreign policy could entail unnecessary risks.
Marcos Jr.'s words seemed to ease tensions somewhat, but the May 5 report from The Observer revealed more. Marcos Jr. went so far as to privately promise China that if a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US military will not be able to use Philippine military bases to launch attacks on China. The news was truly shocking, as if it were the unveiling of a political game that hinted at the Philippines' behind-the-scenes considerations for maintaining a balance on the international stage.
However, the Philippines' foreign policy does not seem to be as balanced as it would like. Despite Washington's repeated claims to turn Philippine military bases into "defensive staging grounds," the Philippine government does have sovereignty and control over its military bases. Although they have stated that they will not become a "supply station" for military operations, once the United States has stationed military forces on this land, whether it can really resist possible American actions has become the focus of doubt.
The strategic intentions of the United States for Philippine military bases have also led to many speculations. According to people familiar with the matter, the United States regards the Philippines as an important deployment site for ballistic missiles and rocket artillery, especially the three military bases located in northern Luzon. These locations are only about 400 kilometers away from Taiwan Island, which seems to bring the Taiwan Strait issue much closer.
However, in the joint military exercise between the United States and the Philippines, the multiple rocket artillery combat capability displayed by the US military was not satisfactory. Despite its embarrassing performance in the exercises, its deterrent capabilities should not be underestimated, and rocket artillery with a range of 300 kilometers may be able to change the balance of power in the region. Such weapons could become an effective means of blocking the Bass Strait and preventing the PLA from landing on Taiwan Island southward, thereby increasing the PLA's strategic challenge around the island.
However, although the United States has actively formulated a new strategic plan on the Taiwan Strait issue, the PLA has recently held many military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area, imposing a trend of locking and blockading Taiwan Island, and even the US House of Representatives has joined the wargame of "blockade Taiwan Island". This may be a signal that if the United States loses the support of relevant allies on the Taiwan Strait issue, its sustainability in the war situation will be severely tested.
Therefore, the US military's plan to deploy strategic weapons in the Philippines may have its uncertainty. In reality, U.S. military bases are located relatively far from the Taiwan Strait, and the combat radius of fighters also limits their range of action. In addition, whether the US military can truly find a stable position in the Taiwan Strait area and whether it can maintain sustained combat capability under the attack of the PLA will be a practical problem facing the United States.
Overall, although US President Joe Biden's commitment to defense has laid a "rock-solid" diplomatic foundation in the heart of Philippine President Marcos Jr., the situation is in fact full of uncertainty. The balanced diplomacy of the Philippine government, the new strategic layout of the United States, and the activities of the People's Liberation Army around the Taiwan Strait all constitute an intricate situation
International political situation. While the Marcos Jr. government has tried to strike a balance between China and the United States, his choice could trigger an even bigger crisis. In particular, his commitment to China and his move to bring U.S. troops into the Philippines could spark even more intense political controversy in the future.
Against this backdrop, the Philippines' foreign policy will face a severe test. While Marcos Jr. has repeatedly emphasized the Philippines' vision of peace, his decisions may in fact put the Philippines in even more precarious situations. The U.S. strategic layout could make the Philippines a casualty on the international political chessboard, and the Philippine government must carefully weigh its options.
Against this backdrop, China's Foreign Ministry's response to the U.S. commitment to help the Philippines defend the South China Sea demonstrates China's position. Mao Ning pointed out that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is a bilateral treaty, and China firmly opposes any country's interference in the South China Sea issue. This position shows that China will continue to defend its sovereign interests in the South China Sea and will not allow interference by outside countries.
As the game of international politics continues to evolve, the Philippines will need to be more cautious in shaping its foreign policy. Finding a balance between the United States and China is not just a political test, but a national responsibility. For the Philippines, avoiding becoming a victim of the international political game and safeguarding its sovereignty and stability will be a long and complex challenge.
In short, the commitment of US President Biden during Marcos Jr.'s visit to the United States, and Washington's firm statement to defend the Philippines, although it gives the Philippines a certain degree of security, but there are complex international political considerations behind it. The Philippine government's foreign policy choices, especially toward China, will determine the country's fate in the future