#时事热点头条说#
For more than a year, inflation is the main theme of the world, developed countries led by the United States and Europe, are printing money at full speed in order to stimulate economic recovery, tens of trillions of dollars of money has brought a huge burden to global finance, but also made their domestic price levels rise rapidly, especially the price of food, houses and other commodities soared, the people complained bitterly. In order to ease the decline, they have tried to curb inflation by raising interest rates sharply.
At present, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 times, and since the start of the rate hike cycle last year, the cumulative rate hike has reached 525 basis points, and Chairman Powell still does not consider cutting interest rates this year. The ECB has raised rates nine times since July, and members of the Governing Council said it was "premature" to consider pausing rates. Industry insiders believe that raising interest rates has exacerbated the risk of deflationary depression, but many people have not yet reacted.
Is there any basis for this claim? According to the definition of deflation, this is the phenomenon of excessive capacity or insufficient demand leading to a continuous decline in prices, wages, interest rates, food, energy and other prices, and it is generally believed that when the CPI has negative growth for more than three consecutive months or two consecutive quarters, it is considered deflation. Fang Shuojun felt that taking the current domestic situation as an example to analyze, a glimpse of the whole leopard was known.
On the one hand, the price level is decreasing. The data shows that in 10 months, the national industrial producer factory price PPI fluctuated in the negative range, and the month-on-month increase has accelerated the downward trend. You know, PPI reflects the price of products in the production process and upstream fields, which is simply understood as the ex-factory price, indicating that the price cost is getting lower and lower.
It's just that the downward test of this data does not mean that we buy things cheaply, but because of insufficient demand, oversupply, and price cuts that have to be implemented, it reflects a dangerous signal, mainly manifested in the slow growth of residents' income, greater employment pressure, and insufficient consumer confidence. The negative growth of the consumer price index CPI in July since 28 months is more like this fact.
Let's look at the PMI, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index is 49.3%, continuing to hover below the 50 boom and bust line, reflecting that there is still uncertainty in business operations and the overall economic situation is not optimistic.
On the other hand, the desire of enterprises and individuals to invest and consume continues to decline. July financial data showed that M2 grew by 10.7% year-on-year, compared with 11.3% in the previous month; M1 grew 2.3% year-on-year, compared with 3.1% in the previous month. Here is a brief explanation: M2 refers to all circulating money in society, including demand and time deposits, reflecting potential purchasing power, while M1 mainly reflects the strength of consumption power.
M2 and M1 growth rates have fallen to a new low this year, indicating that the money is still lying in the account, and everyone does not need loans so much. Moreover, since the surge of M2 in February, the growth rate has been in a downward trend in the past three months, and the speed of money printing has slowed down, which means that the money in the pocket is becoming more and more valuable.
In contrast, it does have relatively obvious deflationary characteristics at present, and in order to stimulate the economy, we have also seen that major banks have gradually lowered deposit interest rates, which is equivalent to telling you that the deposit income has become gross, and it will depreciate if you continue to put it in your account. In other words, the money in your pocket or bank card becomes valuable, but it can't bring you more money, and you may have to consume old money all the time.
However, consumption is not good, the more difficult the business of the enterprise is, the more the price of goods can not be raised, so that a vicious circle will be formed, the general environment is so, the personal will is more susceptible to the influence of the social environment and others, how can it be willing to increase consumption. With the rise of deflation, this year and next, perhaps we should really prepare for asset depreciation, and knowledgeable people suggest that it is safer to hold two things. Why do you say that?
This is because for ordinary people, deflation seems to buy more with the same money, but in reality, long-term deflation is very harmful. For example, a house worth 1.5 million yuan, a loan of 1 million, next month's mortgage is different from this month's mortgage:
Prices rise, houses become more and more valuable, and loan money will become cheaper and cheaper, which is equivalent to assets increasing in value and costs diluting;
Prices fall, the value of houses does not rise or even falls, and the cost of loans increases in disguise while assets depreciate.
Therefore, the reason is very simple, because in the deflationary environment, individuals have no money to consume, and dare not consume, every day is tightening their belts to live, and no matter how valuable money becomes worth, it will not improve living standards. From this point of view, the first thing the average person should do is to use leverage tools carefully, control large expenses, and try to hold cash. It cannot be said that only consider the immediate scenery, do not think about their own affordability, as small as a mobile phone, as large as a car and a house, overdraft consumption seems to be very beautiful, but it will make people fall into a long-term debt situation, when one day income drops or work is unstable, it will also affect life drag down the family.
The second thing is a healthy body. Studies show that 70% of people on the mainland are in a "sub-health state", 15% are in a state of disease, and chronic diseases afflict every family. At the same time, the nuclear sewage into the sea incident is a global environmental and health warning, we must focus on long-term health management strategies, after all, a healthy body is the capital of the revolution, if the health is gone, no matter how much wealth and fame will be with you, health is like 1, no 1 behind more zeros is also empty.
Fang said that in the face of the general environment, what individuals can do is always limited, and only what they can control is the money in their hands and the capital of life.
The pictures used in this article are all from the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete. The article is the original of "Daily Room Theory", it is strictly forbidden to reprint and plagiarize, and it must be deeply investigated if found. (Reported by: Cai Shuojun)