Text|Far Mountain
Editor|Multifish
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A long time has passed since the Sino-US science and technology war was fully launched.
Although the US-led science and technology war has not hindered the development of mainland related industries in a real sense, they are obviously not dead, and Biden has also made his attitude clear many times, and wants to continue to increase his efforts on this basis in an attempt to completely defeat us.
After a period of chip supply, the "bad consequences" of this misconduct began to gradually appear.
Although the United States itself has not been greatly impacted, Japan, as its vanguard, may lose a large number of market share in the lithography machine industry, which is extremely unfavorable to the development of the local semiconductor industry.
First, the world semiconductor market pattern
Although the semiconductor industry originated from the United States, the United States has not really become a monopoly in this field.
At present, the reason why many countries in the world are willing to obediently obediently obey the call of the United States and follow the country to launch sanctions against mainland related industries is not because of how powerful the United States is in the semiconductor industry, but more out of fear of its hegemony.
No country wants to be sanctioned by the United States, and although we are not afraid of all kinds of pressure from the United States, if we can, we also hope to develop in a more peaceful and stable environment.
After all, if there were no US scientific and technological sanctions during this period, we might have made more breakthroughs and achievements in the semiconductor industry.
State-to-state exchanges often begin with safeguarding national interests. Since choosing to stand on the united front with the United States can better protect its own development interests, why should we contradict each other?
What's more, under the influence of some public opinion, many Western countries do not consider us a friendly country. Wouldn't it be natural to impose sanctions on such a country?
Let's not talk about the truth and conspiracy behind public opinion, just this US technology sanctions have broken the balance of the global semiconductor industry.
Under such circumstances, the development of our related industries will certainly be impacted, and the development of other semiconductor countries participating in the Sino-US science and technology war will also be affected accordingly.
In this protracted upsurge of supply cuts, it is not the Chinese side as the party concerned, but the Japanese side that has been rushing to the front line.
Like the European and Dutch sides, Japan has a relatively mature industrial foundation in the lithography machine industry. In order to curb the development of the mainland chip industry, the United States wants to directly block the source by cutting off the supply of lithography machines.
As everyone knows, their approach can neither bring us an impact to achieve their ultimate goal.
At the same time, it has brought a greater negative impact on the development of Japan's semiconductor industry, and next, Japan's share of lithography machines in the Chinese market may be minimized or even disappeared.
Second, Japan has been subjected to sanctions
The trilateral agreement between the United States, Japan and the Netherlands aims to launch a new round of more violent semiconductor sanctions against the mainland.
Japan is quite attentive to this matter, and announced early on that it would include all 23 technologies in the field of lithography machine development and production into the control list. In such circumstances, we have indeed suffered a greater shock.
Considering that the development of the mainland chip industry is still in its infancy at this stage, most of the lithography machine products we need are low-end products. Therefore, we may need to cooperate with Japan next door more than the higher-end ASML.
However, the other party has no willingness to cooperate, and only wants to work with Lao Mei to suppress the development of related industries in the mainland.
After this period of suppression, Japan has also begun to be countered by sanctions. Japan's Nikon, for example, saw its total profit in the second quarter of this year fall 78% year-on-year, a bleak figure.
The reason for this situation may be inseparable from their interruption of supply to the Chinese market, after all, the demand for low-end lithography machine products in the Chinese market at this stage is still very strong.
If Japan had not cut off the supply to China, how could Nikon's shipments in the second quarter of this year have only 6 lithography machines? Although we sympathize with Nikon's current situation, at the same time, it is also the result of their own fault.
Some insiders predict that if Japan continues to follow the United States to launch technology sanctions against us, then the country's related companies are likely to completely lose the Chinese market.
Now that Nikon's lithography machine orders have been cut off, we cannot predict what kind of development dilemma we will face next.
Not only Japan, but also the Netherlands, which is also in the tripartite alliance, has not been optimistic about the export business of lithography machines during this period.
However, compared with Japan, the Netherlands' sanctions attitude is not so firm, and it still puts its own interests first. Most of them pay lip service, and not all of them are implemented in actual sanctions.
It can be seen that after the previous losses, the Netherlands now has a clearer and more rational understanding of the sanctions against China. In Japan, on the other hand, they don't seem to have woken up.
What do you have to say about this? Welcome to leave your opinion in the comment area!