Powell shook the market, U.S. stocks reversed in a V-shape, U.S. bonds once crashed, and NVIDIA's earnings rose more than 6% weekly

Fed Chairman Powell's blockbuster speech did not release a completely consistent signal, his speech hinted that interest rates may be raised, did not rule out the possibility of the next rate hike is regarded as a hawkish signal, major U.S. stock indexes once again staged an intraday turn down, U.S. bond prices flash crash, yields rose, but at the same time his cautious attitude to interest rate hikes brought a dovish partial hedging effect, U.S. stocks have since turned higher.

Speaking at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole on Friday, Powell began by acknowledging progress in reducing inflation, but noted that inflation was "too high," saying the Fed was prepared to raise interest rates further if appropriate and intended to maintain restrictive rates until confidence in inflation was moving sharply down toward the Fed's target.

Powell said the resilience of the economy carries the risk that inflation could accelerate again. He argues that interest rates are currently restrictive enough for the economy, and that real interest rates are now positive, well above the mainstream estimate of the neutral rate, but the Fed cannot determine a specific neutral level. Even with some more favorable data recently, the "process" of reducing inflation is still a long way off.

Powell concluded by saying that future Fed meetings will be based on headline data, as well as changing prospects and risk assessment progress. "Based on this assessment, we will proceed cautiously to decide whether to tighten monetary policy further or leave the policy rate unchanged and await further data."

Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency", commented that the key word in Powell's speech on Friday was "caution", which is a speech on managing risk.

Some commentators believe that Powell's speech is hawkish, saying that he has not finished the work of fighting inflation, opening the door for further interest rate hikes, and firmly putting the possibility of another rate hike on the table. There are also comments that Powell has a certain dovish signal, he hints that he will keep tightening longer, but said that he will be cautious about whether to raise interest rates again, while there is still a long way to go to wary of reducing inflation, he hinted that the Fed may leave interest rates unchanged in September, as investors expected. Another comment said that Powell believes that real interest rates are now far above the usual neutral interest rate level, which eased some concerns that the speech was hawkish and revived optimism among stock market investors.

Powell's speech sparked financial market turmoil. After his speech began, the U.S. stock market maintained its rally, the three major indexes updated or approached intraday highs, the dollar index turned down in the short term, refreshing the daily low, and the U.S. bond yield fell in the short term. But the trend did not last, U.S. stocks have since repeated Thursday's intraday turn, chip stocks and other technology stocks continue to lead the decline, the dollar index rebounded, hitting a new high in more than two months, U.S. bond yields rose, and the more interest-rate-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly approached the high since 2007 set more than a month ago, and then U.S. stocks gradually rebounded and turned higher, and the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields gave up some of their gains.

Expectations for another rate hike this year rose again after Powell's speech, with swap pricing corresponding to the Fed meeting showing that investors' expectations for rate hikes in September, November and December for the remaining three meetings of the year were all slightly higher. U.S. labor market data released before Powell's speech showed resilience and has convinced bond traders that the Fed may keep interest rates high until next year. After Powell's speech, the market's real yields moved further higher, with the five-year real yield in the United States hitting its highest since 2008.

On Friday, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates by about 25% in September and 45% in November

U.S. stocks have had ups and downs this week: on Monday, the market strongly expected that AI benchmark NVIDIA had strong performance, U.S. stocks were led higher by technology stocks, after S&P downgraded a number of U.S. banks, bank stocks dragged U.S. stocks back on Tuesday, PMI inferior made the market increase bets on the central bank to suspend interest rate hikes, U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday, NVIDIA exceeded expectations after the release of excellent earnings, the market made a reaction to buy news and sell facts on Thursday, U.S. stocks fell sharply, AI power turned off; On Friday, U.S. stocks staged a rollercoaster ride during Powell's speech, and with Friday's rally, the Nasdaq and S&P were freed from the danger of a week-long decline this month, but the Dow, which suffered a heavy decline on Thursday, failed to erase the losses and continued to decline.

This week, the dollar index continued to hit a new high in more than two months, continuing the cumulative rally trend of more than a month, long-term and short-term U.S. bonds were mixed, long-term bond yields fell and rebounded, short-term bond yields accelerated upward, and the yield curve flattened. Commodities were mixed, with gold continuing to retreat on Friday, but rose for the first time in a month due to a sharp rise on Wednesday; European and American PMIs hit demand prospects, crude oil fell for the second week in a row after hitting the longest winning streak in a year and a half; European gas, which rebounded sharply from threats of strikes at Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants, fell sharply after the crisis was lifted, falling for the first time in a month.

After Powell's speech, the three major US stock indexes turned down, the Nasdaq ended a three-week losing streak, the chip stock index turned up during the session, and Nvidia still fell more than 2%

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 250 points or more than 0.7% at the beginning of the session. After Powell began speaking, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose more than 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively, and the Dow extended its gains to more than 210 points, close to the daily high.

After Powell's speech and more than an hour after the open, the three major indexes turned lower. The NASDAQ fell nearly 0.7%, the S&P fell nearly 0.5%, and the Dow fell 70 points before paring losses. At the end of the morning, the Dow and S&P turned higher, and the Nasdaq also turned higher at midday. When it updated its daily high at midday, the NASDAQ rose nearly 1.3%, the Dow rose more than 340 points, or about 1%, and the S&P rose nearly 1%.

In the end, the three major indexes closed up collectively on the second day of the week after Wednesday. The Nasdaq closed up 0.94% at 13,590.65, starting close to Wednesday's updated high since August 14. The S&P closed up 0.67% at 4,405.71, not approaching the lowest level since June 26 set on Friday. The Dow closed up 247.48 points, or 0.73 percent, at 34,346.90, off Thursday's updated low since July 10.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose more than 1.2 percent during Powell's speech, turned lower after the speech, turned higher at midday and then updated its daily high, closing up 0.85 percent before rebounding more than 2 percent on Thursday. The Russell 2000, a value-heavy small-cap index, also turned lower in early trading and turned higher at midday, closing up 0.4 percent, bidding farewell to Thursday's retreat to refresh its lowest level since July 6.

With Friday's rally, most of the major U.S. stock indexes rose this week. The NASDAQ rose 2.26%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.68%, and the S&P rose 0.82%, all reversing a three-week losing streak and gaining for the first time this month. The Nasdaq and S&P ended their longest losing streak since December and February 24, respectively. The Dow, which posted its biggest point drop since March 22 on Thursday, fell 0.45% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.31%, falling for two and four weeks, respectively.

Major U.S. stock indexes moved this week

The S&P 500 sectors that fell on Thursday rebounded across the board, led by Tesla's consumer discretionary rising 1.1 percent, crude oil upward-backed energy rose more than 1 percent, industrials rose nearly 0.9 percent, Apple's IT rose more than 0.8 percent, and communications services rose nearly 0.2 percent, leading the bottom gainers.

A total of seven sectors rose this week, led by IT where chip stocks such as Nvidia rose about 2.6%, consumer discretionary rose more than 1%, communication services rose nearly 1%, and energy fell more than 1% due to the decline in crude oil, consumer staples dragged down nearly 0.8% and medical products fell more than 0.1%. In addition, materials are almost cumulative flat last week.

Chip stocks generally followed the broader market in early trading and turned higher at midday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and semiconductor industry ETF SOXX rising more than 1% in early trading, falling more than 1% after turning down, and rebounding at midday to close up about 0.4%, up about 1% this week.

AI benchmark chip stock NVIDIA rose more than 1% after Powell's speech began, fell more than 3% in early trading after turning down, and finally closed down 2.4%, stopping two consecutive Yang, still rising about 6.3% this week, rising for two consecutive weeks and at least about 6% per week, but this week's rise is not from better-than-expected earnings, but the earnings report rose 8.5% on Monday, the largest daily gain since May 25, and fell sharply on Thursday after the earnings report, closing up only 0.1%, and rebounded after falling more than 1% last week. Among other chip stocks, ON Semiconductor rose more than 2%, Intel rose 2%, Qualcomm, Applied Materials, Texas Instruments rose more than 1%, AMD rose 0.4%, Micron Technology rose slightly, and second-quarter revenue and EPS earnings slightly higher than expected Mewell Technology fell more than 6%.

Although NVIDIA has risen for two consecutive weeks, it is far from returning to the peak level in July, and the AI boom is still decreasing

Most of the leading tech stocks that retreated on Thursday rebounded. Tesla, which stopped three consecutive days on Thursday, maintained its rally, rising more than 3% during Powell's speech, and the three major stock indexes once gave up most of their gains after turning lower, then continued to rise, closing up 3.7%, rebounding to the highest level since August 14, and accumulated a 10.7% gain this week, mainly due to Monday's 7.3% rise to the biggest gain since March 21.

Among the six major technology stocks in FAANMG, Netflix, which fell from its four-day winning streak on Thursday, closed up more than 2.2% since August 4, almost erasing half of Thursday's losses; Apple closed up nearly 1.3%, starting close to Wednesday's four-day winning streak since August 4; Amazon closed up nearly 1.1%, near Wednesday's rebound to a new high since August 15; Microsoft, which fell more than 2% on Thursday and rose for three consecutive days, closed up more than 0.9% at its highest level since August 7; Google's parent company Alphabet closed up less than 0.1%, failing to approach the highest since July 31 set by Wednesday's three-day winning streak; Facebook's parent company Meta closed down 0.4 percent, falling for two days after rebounding to its highest level since Aug. 16 on Wednesday.

A number of AI concept stocks that fell sharply on Thursday rebounded. By the close, C3.ai (AI), which fell nearly 12% on Thursday, rose more than 1%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN), which fell nearly 7% on Thursday, rose more than 2%, Palantir (PLTR), which fell more than 7% on Thursday, rose more than 2%, Adobe (ADBE), which fell more than 3% on Thursday, rose more than 2%, and BigBear.ai (BBAI), which fell more than 6% on Thursday, rose nearly 0.8%.

Indexes of bank stocks, which rallied for two straight days, failed to follow the broader rally as they tumbled on Tuesday after the S&P downgraded five U.S. banks, falling for the fourth straight week this week. The overall banking index KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed down nearly 0.5%, approaching the lowest level since June 28, which was updated for seven consecutive days on Tuesday, and fell 2.1% this week; The regional banking index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed down 0.7 percent, close to its seven-day losing streak on Tuesday since July 14 and down nearly 2.8 percent this week, while the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) also closed down 0.7 percent, approaching its lowest level since July 14, which had fallen for three days on Tuesday and fell 2.5 percent this week.

Big banks mostly fell, with Wells Fargo down nearly 0.5 percent, Bank of America down 0.4 percent, Morgan Stanley down nearly 0.3 percent, JPMorgan Chase down more than 0.1 percent, while Citi rose nearly 0.4 percent and Goldman edged higher. Among regional banks, Zions Bancorporation (ZION) closed down about 1 percent, Western Pacific United Bank (PACW) fell nearly 0.8 percent, Alayes Western Bank (WAL) fell 0.3 percent and Keycorp (KEY) rose less than 0.1 percent.

Popular Chinese concept stocks pared losses at midday, with most still closing lower. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell about 2% in early trading and edged down 0.03%, failing to close higher for two consecutive days but gaining 1.6% this week. China ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down 0.4% and 1.4% respectively. At the close, Xpeng Motors rose by more than 8%, Kingsoft Cloud rose by more than 5%, Futu Holdings rose by more than 3%, Pinduoduo, Tiger Securities, and the first fog core technology of electronic cigarettes rose by more than 2%, NIO, Li Auto, GDS rose by more than 1%, Alibaba rose by 0.8%, NetEase rose by nearly 0.2%, while Weibo fell by nearly 9%, Zhihu fell by 5%, iQiyi fell by more than 3%, Station B fell by more than 2%, JinkoSolar fell by nearly 0.8%, Tencent Pink fell by nearly 0.6%, JD.com fell by nearly 0.2%, and Baidu fell by more than 0.1%.

Among the individual stocks that reported earnings, Affirm (AFRM) closed up 28.8% after reporting lower-than-expected losses in the fourth fiscal quarter, higher-than-expected revenue, GMV growth exceeding expectations by 25%, and market expectations that first-quarter revenue was at the low end of its guidance; Gap (GPS), a retailer with lower-than-expected quarterly revenue but higher-than-expected EPS earnings, closed up 7.2%; Second-quarter profits and revenue exceeded expectations Enterprise software company Workday (WDAY) closed up 5.4%; Software company Intuit (INTU), a software company with better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and better-than-expected full-year guidance, closed up 4.1%; And despite better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue, department store retailer Nordstrom (JWN) closed down 7.7 percent.

Among the volatile individual stocks, the media said that after private equity firm Veritas Capital considered a possible acquisition, Canadian technology company BlackBerry (BB) rose 13% intraday, so it temporarily suspended trading and closed up nearly 18.1%; "Vietnam Tesla" VinFast (VFS), which rose more than 30% on Thursday, closed up about 40.4%, rising on the third day of the week after Monday and Thursday, accumulating nearly 347% for the week; Hasbro (HAS), a toy company on the preferred list that Stifel sharply raised its price target by 20% to $94, closed up nearly 5.7%; Hawaiian Electric Company (HE) closed down 18.6 percent after media said it would be sued by Maui County for damages from the Hawaii Island fire.

In European stocks, Powell's speech rekindled expectations of another interest rate hike within the year, and European stocks fell intraday. The pan-European stock index nearly closed flat after turning lower at midday. Europe's Stoxx 600 index rose 0.7 percent intraday and closed slightly lower, falling back on Thursday and still about 0.4 percent off from Wednesday's updated high since Aug. 16. Major European stock indexes closed up across the board, Germany, France and Italy, which stopped three consecutive gains on Thursday, rebounded, British stocks and Western stocks rose for four consecutive days, German stocks and British stocks were barely holding the rebound momentum after the intraday retreat.

Among the sectors, financial services and technology, which led the decline, fell 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, while utilities rose nearly 0.7% and oil and gas, which benefited from the continued rally in crude oil, rose about 0.3%.

This week, the Stoxx 600 rebounded after a three-week losing streak. Stock indexes in various countries have also accumulated, with Britain, Germany, Italy and Western stocks stopping a three-week losing streak, and French stocks that fell last week rebounded. Utilities rose 2.5 percent this week, followed by a 1.7 percent rise in property last week, as interest-rate-sensitive sectors responded simultaneously to lower Treasury yields, while retail fell more than 1 percent to be the worst performer.

Two-year U.S. Treasury yields briefly approached their highest levels since 2007 The five-year real yield in the United States hit a new high since 2008

European Treasury prices followed U.S. Treasury prices back and Powell renewed daily highs after his speech. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the British 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 4.44%, up 2 basis points on the day; The yield on the 2-year British note closed at 4.98%, 5 basis points on the day; The yield on the benchmark 10-year German Bund closed at 2.56%, up 5 basis points on the day; The yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 3.02%, up 8 basis points on the day.

European bond yields generally retreated this week, with UK bond yields leading the decline, highlighting cooling expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of England. The yield on the 10-year note fell by about 23 basis points and the 2-year yield fell by about 16 basis points, both erasing last week's gains of about 15 basis points, stopping for four weeks and two weeks, respectively; The yield on the 10-year German bond fell by about 6 basis points for the first time in the last five weeks after closing roughly flat last week, and the yield on the 2-year German bond, which rose for two weeks, was roughly unchanged on Friday from a week ago.

After Powell's speech, the yield on the 5-year U.S. real yield, the 5-year inflation-protected bond (TIPS), rose above 2.26% on Friday, the highest since 2008.

After Powell began to speak, the yield of the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond first plunged 4 basis points short-term, fell below 4.20% to refresh the daily low, and then quickly rose, once rising above 4.28% to refresh the daily high, rising nearly 5 basis points on the day, and Tuesday's intraday rise above 4.36% hit the high since November 2007 is still far away, U.S. stocks gave up most of their gains at midday, about 4.24% by the end of the bond market, rose slightly during the day, fell by about 1 basis point this week, and fell back after four consecutive weeks.

Long-term bond yields retreated this week, while short-term bond yields, led by two-year ones, continued to climb

The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, fell back at the beginning of Powell's speech, approaching a daily low of 5.00%, and then quickly rose, once close to 5.10%, updating the high since July 6 set earlier this week, approaching the high since mid-2007 set near 5.12% on July 6, rising nearly 7 basis points in the day, giving up a slight retreat, about 5.08% by the end of the bond market, up nearly 6 basis points intraday, and a cumulative rise of about 14 basis points this week, rising for three consecutive weeks.

After regaining 5.0% on Thursday, the 2-year Treasury yield rose further to a more than one-month high on Friday, with U.S. stocks retreating slightly at midday

The long- and short-term U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened significantly this week as the gap between long-term and short-term U.S. bond performance widened. The 2-year and 30-year Treasury yield curves returned to their flattest level since the start of the month.

The 2-year and 30-year Treasury yield curves returned to their flattest level since the start of the month

After Powell's speech, the dollar index turned down in the short term, then hit a new high in more than two months, the yen hit a new nine-month low, and the offshore yuan lost 7.30 intraday

The ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against the euro and other six major currencies in a basket of exchange rates, turned down more than once in Europe on Friday, and after Powell began to speak, U.S. stocks quickly turned down again in early trading, and once fell below 103.80 to refresh the daily low, falling more than 0.2% on the day, and then quickly rebounded, U.S. stocks rose above 104.40 in early trading, hitting a new high since June 12 for two consecutive days and a new high since June 8 for two consecutive days, and then updating the intraday high since June 1, rising more than 0.4% on the day.

By Friday's U.S. stock close, the dollar index was above 104.10, up more than 0.1% on the day, and nearly 0.7% for the week; The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against ten other currencies, rose less than 0.1 percent, its highest level since May 31, and rose more than 0.2 percent this week, with the dollar index rising for two consecutive days and six weeks.

The Bloomberg dollar spot index locked in this week's gains with Thursday's rally

During Powell's speech, non-US currencies generally updated daily lows. The yen hit a nine-month low on the second day of the week, with USDJPY rising above 146.60 in early U.S. trading, updating Monday's highest level since November, while the EURUSD and GBPUSD fell below 1.0770 and 1.2550, respectively, updating their June 13 lows in early trading in U.S. stocks.

The offshore yuan (CNH) against the dollar updated the daily high to 7.2804 when the short-term rally in Asian early trading, and then continued to fall, during Powell's speech, U.S. stocks lost 7.30 in early trading to refresh the daily low of 7.3019, down 212 points on the day, and the low since November 3 fell to 7.3535 last year, which was close to 7.35 to 7.3497 last Thursday, August 17, and was still far away. At 4:59 Beijing time on August 26, the offshore yuan was at 7.2948 yuan against the US dollar, down 142 points from the end of New York on Thursday, stopping two consecutive gains, accumulating 116 points this week, rebounding after three consecutive weeks of decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $26,300 to refresh the daily high before the U.S. stock market, Powell dived after speaking, quickly fell below $26,000, once fell below $25,900 to refresh the daily low, fell more than $500 from the daily high, down nearly 2%, U.S. stocks regained $26,000 at midday, U.S. stocks closed above $26,000, fell about 0.2% in the last 24 hours, and fell about 0.4% in the last seven days.

European natural gas rebounded after falling more than 10% for several days, still falling weekly for the first time in a month, and crude oil rebounded in two days, but fell for two consecutive weeks

European natural gas rebounded after three straight days of declines as the strike crisis at Australia's liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants eased, recording its first decline in the last four weeks this week. Previously closed down about 13% for two consecutive days, British natural gas futures closed up 7.88% at 86.65 pence / kcal, away from Thursday's low of 80.32 pence on August 8 last Tuesday at 78.14 pence, still far from Tuesday's closing high of 108.23 pence on June 15, which rose above 106 pence at 106.10 pence, and fell 4.66% this week; Continental TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures, which fell about 14% on Wednesday and 13% on Thursday, respectively, closed up 8.89% at 34.777 euros / MWh, off Thursday's low of 31.066 euros since August 8 at 31.938 euros, and still far from Tuesday's closing high of 42.88 euros on April 12, which rose above 42 euros to 42.908 euros, and fell 4.49% this week.

International crude oil futures generally maintained their rebound momentum on Friday. U.S. WTI crude oil updated the daily high of $80.45 in U.S. stocks before the market, up nearly 1.8% on the day, Brent crude oil also rose more than 1%, and when it updated the daily low after turning down at midday, U.S. oil fell to $78.14, down nearly 1.2% during the day, and crude oil fell to $82.18, down 1.4% on the day, and then quickly rebounded, and Brent oil updated its daily high to $84.41, up nearly 1.3% on the day.

In the end, crude oil, which fell for three consecutive days, rebounded for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil futures for October ended up $0.78, or 0.99%, at $79.83 a barrel, continuing to break from Wednesday's closing low of $78.78 at $78.78 on July 26. Brent crude oil futures for October ended up $1.12, or 1.34 percent, at $84.48 a barrel, starting from Wednesday's $83.21 low since last Wednesday's $83.2.

This week, crude oil continued to fall after ending a seven-week winning streak last week, with U.S. oil down about 1% and crude oil down about 0.4%.

U.S. WTI crude oil fell for days on Tuesday and Wednesday, and plunged short-term on Friday, closing without recovering the $80 mark

U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures rose for the second day in a row. NYMEX gasoline futures for September ended up 3.5% at $2.876 a gallon, continuing to break from Wednesday's updated low since August 3, closing higher on the third day of the week, up 1.9% for the week after falling sharply 4.8% last week; NYMEX natural gas futures for September ended up 0.83 percent at $2.5400 per MMBtu, rising two straight after falling below the Aug. 2 low of $2.50 on Wednesday, and fell about 0.4 percent this week, down two weeks in a row, but nowhere near the 8.1 percent drop last week.

Lun Tong's two consecutive negative still ended a three-week losing streak, and gold fell back for several days, still ending a four-week losing streak

London base metals futures closed lower across the board on Friday, almost all of them fell for two consecutive days. Lunxi fell more than 1%, leading the decline for two consecutive days, and Lun aluminum and Lunlead continued to fall from the highs since more than a week, nearly two weeks and the end of January, respectively. London copper and London nickel continue to bid farewell to the high levels that have been in more than two weeks. Lunzinc, which has risen for six days, fell to a nearly two-week high.

Base metals collectively gained this week. Lunzinc, which led the gains, rose about 3.6%, and Lun Aluminum, which rose 0.6%, both stopped a two-week winning streak. London nickel also rose more than 3%, and London copper, which rose more than 1%, and Lunxi, which rose nearly 1%, both rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline. Last Monday, the top-flying Lun lead rose 0.5%, a two-week winning streak.

The main contract of New York gold futures was basically in a decline throughout the day on Friday, and U.S. stocks had turned up briefly during pre-market and Powell's speech, and U.S. stocks updated the day's low to $1931 in early trading, falling more than 0.8% on the day.

Finally, COMEX gold futures for December ended down 0.37% at $1939.90 an ounce, continuing to fall from Wednesday's closing high since August 10 after a slight decline on Thursday.

As Wednesday closed up nearly 1.2%, the biggest gain since July 31, futures still rose 1.22% for the week, ending a four-week losing streak and falling more than 1% in the previous three weeks.

Spot gold was above $1,900 on Thursday and Friday, after a marked pullback during Powell's speech