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On Taiwan's political scene, next year's regional leadership election has become a tense contest. The forces are doing their best to build momentum and build their prestige in the minds of voters. However, in this complex competition, the positions and declarations of the blue, green and white forces are like a complicated chess game, presenting an elusive situation.
Green Camp candidate Lai Qingde's declaration is remarkable. He said with a firm posture that he would continue to uphold Tsai Ing-wen's "four persistences," resolutely reject the "consensus of '92," and warn any forces that attempt to carry out "annexation and aggression" against Taiwan. This stance actually deepens the issue of "reunification and independence" into a cross-strait ideological confrontation, and uses the banner of "freedom and democracy" to confuse the people's judgment of the country and national identity. Against the backdrop of the chaotic political environment on the island, he sought to benefit from this populist sentiment.
However, Lai Qingde's position is actually not surprising. He himself was jokingly called "the golden grandson of Taiwan independence" and called himself a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker." Especially when the DPP won two consecutive elections, Lai Qingde drew on Tsai Ing-wen's election strategy in 2016 and 2020 to ensure that he can successfully "succeed".
Unlike Lai Qingde's clear position, Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi's attitude was even more hesitant. He explicitly opposes the idea of "Taiwan independence" and does not endorse "one country, two systems," but he avoids mentioning the "consensus of '92" to ensure the basis for cross-strait political mutual trust. This conservative and moderate posture has led to criticism of its "blue-skinned and green-boned" stance.
However, the KMT's choice of Hou Youyi to run was actually just a stopgap measure. A considerable number of people within the Blue Camp are more inclined to Guo Ming and do not agree with Hou Youyi's political views. Recent polls also show that Hou's support has fallen all the way, leaving only 18%, falling from the top to the bottom.
In the dilemma of Lai Qingde's strong advocacy of "Taiwan independence" and the deep infighting of the Blue Camp, Ke Wenzhe unwittingly became the protagonist of this "triangle drama" with a relatively neutral stance and a better personal image. There is no doubt that he is better at grasping the so-called "traffic password" than Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde.
On the afternoon of June 11, Ke Wenzhe expounded his political views at a public event. He believes that once the other side takes action, it will inevitably adopt the "decapitation tactic" and take information warfare as the primary link. He warned that the island's network and communication systems will be weakened through electronic countermeasures, followed by a missile offensive to seize air and sea supremacy in the Taiwan Strait and eventually conduct cross-sea landing operations.
Based on this, he advocated giving priority to "information warfare" and giving priority to cyber forces. He stressed that it is necessary to let the other side understand that Taiwan has the ability to paralyze the mainland's network, because network security is one of Taiwan's strong points and is worth vigorously developing.
Mr. Ke made it clear that, if elected, he would choose one day each year for Taiwanese cyber forces to launch exploratory attacks, such as the mainland's high-speed rail system on October 1 and the ATM system the following year. His aim was to send a clear message to the other side: Taiwan has the ability to paralyze the mainland and warn them not to act rashly.
It is worth noting that Ke Wenzhe's threat was made after his return from Japan. When he met with Japanese dignitaries, he displayed a hypocritical posture. In a conversation with former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, he was cautious and resigned, while Noda was at ease. He openly declared that Taiwan and Japan are "allies" and want to strengthen ties between the alliances. In addition, he met with another well-known Japanese right-wing politician and former Prime Minister Taro Aso.
Aso has always been an advocate of Japan's armed intervention in China's reunification, saying that "if something happens in Taiwan, it is something that happens to Japan." After a secret meeting with him, Aso confirmed that he would visit Taiwan in August.
A comprehensive analysis of the current situation in Taiwan, whether Lai Qingde, Hou Youyi, or Ke Wenzhe came to power, can not change the situation that has gradually changed in cross-strait relations. Wind and clouds in the Taiwan Strait
Change is evolving at an unexpected pace. However, the key to truly resolving the Taiwan issue lies in decisive action by the mainland as the leading party.
The current situation of Taiwan's politics is full of complexity and uncertainty, and the positions and movements of the blue, green and white parties are like a complex chess game, which is elusive. The competition and contest in the election seems to have made the various forces more and more hardened, trying to make their voices and positions stand out. Lai Qingde dared to openly declare "Taiwan independence", Hou Youyi was relatively conservative, and Ke Wenzhe attracted more attention with his neutral posture.
However, the fundamental impact of this election on the situation in the Taiwan Strait seems to be limited. No matter who wins, it will be difficult to reverse the trend of evolution of cross-strait relations. The future of the Taiwan Strait is full of uncertainty, and cross-strait friction and tension are becoming more and more obvious. With the change of the situation, the settlement of the Taiwan issue has become more urgent.
In this context, Ke Wenzhe's threatening words have attracted widespread attention. His so-called "information warfare" plan, while intended to show Taiwan's strength, has raised greater concerns about attacking mainland infrastructure, such as high-speed rail and ATM systems. This not only escalates the risks of cross-strait relations, but also exposes Ke Wenzhe's contradictions and hypocrisy. He calls himself a "third force," but he cannot escape the shadow of the blue-green dispute, which has become an obstacle to the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan Strait issue.
Ke Wenzhe's meeting with Japanese dignitaries also sparked discussion. His flattery and hypocrisy reveal his inconsistencies in international dealings. Although he tried to gain support in this way, it may have actually increased tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
To sum up, the trend of Taiwan's politics is full of variables and challenges. Whoever becomes the next leader will not be able to change the dynamics of cross-strait relations that have taken shape on their own. If long-term stability is to be achieved, the mainland, as the dominant party, needs to act decisively to find a balanced and solution. This concerns not only peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, but also the security and development of the entire region. On the road ahead, all parties need more wisdom and efforts to ensure that the Taiwan issue can be properly resolved.
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