Guo Zhengliang, a famous mouth from the Green Camp, is an extremely rare figure on the island who "turns from green to blue". Since announcing his withdrawal from the Green Camp and no longer having anything to do with the Green Camp, Guo Zhengliang has no baggage, and has expressed his views completely according to his personal wishes. And like another famous mouth, Shen Fuxiong, Guo Zhengliang also broke his heart for the indisputable Lan Ying. In the face of Hou's low support, but Lai is as imposing as a rainbow, Guo Zhengliang recently gave an exclusive interview, analyzed the current war situation, and also did his best to provide advice for the Blue Camp, he believes that Hou Shi is too honest and polite, dare not make any expression, is the biggest reason for his current slump. And he also believes that only a non-green integration path can defeat Lai. Guo Zhengliang is the most reliable among the famous mouths on the island, with clear and unique views, reasonable and accurate judgment, let's take a look at Brother Liang's suggestions to see if we can help Hou turn things around?
Blue and white can't win either? Guo Zhengliang revealed that the "big watermelon effect" appeared: it is a big challenge for Kehou
There are less than 5 months left before the results of the election on the island are announced, and many recent poll results show that the green camp candidate Lai is still in the first place, and some polls have even exceeded 40%. In this regard, Guo Zhengliang said in a recent interview with the program that in the current situation, blue and white cooperation may not be able to win over Lai, and there may be a big watermelon effect, and finally it is difficult for Blue Camp candidate Hou and White Camp candidate Ke to pull the people back.
According to a poll released by an institution a few days ago, Lai's support has reached 43.4%, and Zhu questioned whether there was a problem with sample sampling. In this regard, Guo Zhengliang believes that this poll is completely untrustworthy, as can be seen from the order of the questionnaire questions, before asking which candidate to support, first ask 3 questions about Lai Qiaomei issues, which is seriously beneficial to Lai, which will make the poll results have a framework effect, the order should be reversed, first ask which candidate to support, and then ask about Lai issues; In addition, this poll also goes against public perception, in this poll, Hou won the blue camp voters support only 57%, Guo Zhengliang bluntly said that "this is absolutely impossible", because Hou has not made a mistake recently, and in Wu Zijia's poll, Hou won the blue camp people's support has reached 75%.
Guo Zhengliang also said that in fact, the focus of attention now is that the combined support of the blue camp and the white camp, and how big is the gap between Lai, as far as several recent polls are concerned, from the original blue and white plus is far ahead of Lai, but now the gap is getting smaller and smaller, this is the real trend, even if the blue and white cooperate, they may not be able to win over Lai. Guo Zhengliang pointed out that there will be such a result, which is caused by the big watermelon effect of the election, and some intermediate voters see the current general trend, and think that the result is probably Lai being elected, because they don't like the feeling of losing, they simply choose to vote for Lai.
Guo Zhengliang believes that the emergence of the big watermelon effect is a great challenge for Hou Heke, because this is not a trip to the United States can make up for it, Hou Ke wants to reverse this situation, to show a lot of integration momentum, in order to be able to pull these people back, and the watermelon effect will become more and more obvious, because there is no action to integrate in the wild, patience gradually disappears, and finally choose Lai. Guo Zhengliang also pointed out that the Blue Camp and the White Camp must be integrated by the end of October at the latest, and each must let go of the idea of "improper deputy", which is the only victory equation in the opposition.
Gou's bottom supporters in the polls have never dispersed? Guo Zhengliang revealed the most critical reason behind it
And the founder of Hon Hai Group Gou Taiming has made frequent moves, but has been slow to announce whether to join the election, and a number of recent polls show that Gou Taiming is at the bottom of the four-legged governor, if from Wu Zijia's recent poll, the blue camp supporters of Tinghou have risen from 65% to 75%, and the current Blue Camp voters of Tinghou account for at least 70%, which also explains why Gou's support is low. But no matter how low Guo Dong's poll is, his support has always remained between 11% and 12%. Guo Zhengliang said that he did not see Hou and Ke actively attacking Gou's supporters, and the two candidates could not copy Gou's feelings, so Gou's supporters were unwilling to change their attitude.
Guo Zhengliang pointed out that Gou Taiming has always been at the bottom of many polls, and he can no longer be expected to control the overall situation, but why will his supporters not run away and still maintain 11%-12% support? This means that Hou and Ke are not good enough, they can't copy Gou's feelings, there is no way to absorb Gou's supporters, and another point is that the Blue Army has opinions about Hou. Guo Zhengliang pointed out that Gou's supporters believe that Gou has no one to replace, and this idea is unsolvable; The second is that Gou's supporters still hold the idea that there will be a miracle, and feel that Kou's support may fall; Then there is Gou's supporters who believe that Gou is the decent person in the Blue Camp, which tests whether Hou has done more work in the Blue Army and Han Fan.
Gou Zhengliang said that at present, he has not seen Hou or Ke, there is a positive attack on Gou's supporters, as far as Hou went to Kinmen to make a speech, he can say that he fully accepts Gou's Kinmen Declaration, so that he has the opportunity to accept Gou's supporters, although it is too late to make up for it in personality traits or international understanding, but at least he can make a positive statement.
"To campaign is to shake the mountain!" Guo Zhengliang criticized Hou for being too polite and honest: What is the point of choosing you?
Blue Camp candidate Hou's recent performance in a number of polls has increased slightly, but the pace of improvement has been slow. Guo Zhengliang said that the point he wants to criticize Hou is that he did not exaggerate himself to compare the difference with Lai, and if there is no clear contrast in the election campaign, the people will not know the meaning of choosing you; If you don't stand in the line of fire, voters won't have an impression of you.
Guo Zhengliang pointed out that he agreed that Hou was a candidate acceptable to both the United States and Lu, but he believed that Hou's speech was calm and steady, and he did not exaggerate himself to show his differences with Lai, and he also had to speak out about his similarities with Baiying candidate Ke and Hon Hai Group founder Gou Taiming. For example, Guo Zhengliang said that if Hou felt that his line was significantly different from Lai's, he should jump out and speak; For example, if Taiwan was expelled from the Central American parliament, Hou should come out and make a statement, and if he is elected, he will guarantee that a corresponding solution can be found.
Guo Zhengliang pointed out that the Green Battalion is not afraid of bragging at all, so although there have been ups and downs along the way, the scores in the election campaign have gradually accumulated because they dare to take a stand. He said that if the election campaign does not express a position, compared with the clear difference, how can the people know what is the point of electing you. Guo Zhengliang also said that in addition to making differences, Hou should also be concrete, like Ke's position is clear and compared with Green Camp, but Hou's statements and opinions are very unified, such as the recent proposal of the Kinmen Economic and Trade Special Zone, which makes people feel no specificity; He pointed out that if the election campaign did not talk about shaking the mountain, the general public would not have an impression of you.
And Blue Camp candidate Hou followed Ke P's attitude of supporting the construction of the Jinxia Bridge in Kinmen on the 23rd, Guo Zhengliang praised this, this is the beginning of the integration of the opposition, and Hou should also begin to show his own pattern, not only to absorb the opinions of other candidates, but also to have the courage to confront Green Camp candidate Lai. Guo Zhengliang pointed out that the opposition camps seem to be similar, although they have a bottom in their hearts about integration, but they must be laid out in advance, Hou must have an exclusive interview with a large pattern, just like Lai accepted foreign media interviews, he cannot be afraid of major issues, but also absorb other people's issues, foreign media questions are sharp, Lai also has a few questions that are not answered well, but he even responded to the Taiwan D problem, showing a frame, this trip to the beauty has played a role in himself.
Guo Zhengliang appealed, Hou time is running out, to arrange this kind of interview as soon as possible, he really spoke too politely, too honest, Cai in 2012 completely ignored the inconsistency, repeatedly expressed inconsistent views, she is to win, Hou may not be able to do it, but can also speak directly, for example, to ensure that there will be no war between the two sides of the strait after being elected, but also to talk about the practice and Lai confrontation, show the difference in order to persuade the people to vote for him, as long as the pattern comes out, a few more decent interviews, the momentum will come up. Guo Zhengliang bluntly said that if Lai is elected, the mainland will take action to counter it, and Lai's exclusive interview may have added points to him personally, but the mainland has looked very carefully and is likely to have characterized Lai, and Hou will point out the problem, because if Lai does not take this seriously, it will not be solved.
Ke P support gradually declined? Guo Zhengliang vomited the biggest reason: it is difficult not to be attacked
The results of a number of recent polls show that the support of Baiying candidate Ke has gradually declined. Guo Zhengliang said that this is related to Ke's fighting style, and the green camp has begun to play its platform and resource advantages, and Ke's weaknesses are difficult not to be attacked. Guo Zhengliang pointed out that Ke has only one person in the election, and does not have the background of the traditional camp, although he has the greatest advantage in declaring war on the Internet, there will also be a ceiling, and he can only fight to this point; In addition, the two major camps began to play their platform and resource advantages, especially the green camp, which began to fight online battles, and attacked the negative points of the opponent, and it was difficult not to be attacked.
Guo Zhengliang believes that the interview of Green Camp candidate Lai in foreign media is a great plus for him, because some media have specially designed angles to let voters see his "pattern image"; He pointed out that Ke and Blue Camp candidate Hou must begin to have such interviews, and in the face of Taiwan's most acute issues, including cross-strait, peace and TSMC, to talk or respond, in order to make the people have a sense of "big position", but at present, Ke Hou has no such action.
Pan-blue split "Aunt Wu laughs at home"! Guo Zhengliang asserted that she took 47%: to see the relationship of the senior sister
At present, Hou Hanting, a new D nationality, announced that he would enter the election campaign of the People's Congress in Shilin Beitou, and the other two people fighting were Zhang Sigang of the Blue Camp and Wu Siyao, the current Civilian Generation of the Green Camp, forming a situation of two blues against one green. Due to Wu Siyao's personal strength, the latest poll is 47%, so once a triangular governor is formed, it is tantamount to directly escorting Wu Siyao. And Guo Zhengliang predicted that Zhang Sigang and Hou Hanting only have one way to integrate and participate in the election, and the Ke camp currently expressed that it is very important to support which one, Hou Hanting has previously made many short films with his senior sister Huang Zhuoying, and the friendship is good, and he should help Hou stand on the platform when the time comes.
Guo Zhengliang pointed out that at present, the Shilin Beitou district in Beishi should be Wu Siyao snickering at home. Wu is known as the strongest civil representative in Beishi, few controversial incidents have happened to her, and she herself is good at absorbing different camps and people in the middle, so that Wu Siyao's support in this blue is greater than green constituency can always remain above 45%. And once the Blue Camp splits, Wu lies down to win. Therefore, Zhang Sigang and Hou Hanting could only choose one of them. Now even if the one-on-one win is not high, if it is two-on-one, it is an ironclad loss. At present, the two can compete for support, and by the end of October, the winner will be contested, and those with high support will register to run.
And Guo Zhengliang also believes that it is important who the Ke camp supports. At present, Baiying has not yet expressed its position, and these people in Baiying should help stand on the platform, but it is difficult to say whether they will give full support. On the same day, Zhang Sigang of Lanying issued an article pointing out that he was willing to integrate with Hou Hanting's fair duel, and the poll leader qualified to face Wu Siyao, which was an echo of Guo Zhengliang's proposal.