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The population plummeted by 850,000, and experts urged the resumption of family planning.
By the end of 2022, China's total population decreased by 850,000 year-on-year.
When the demographic crisis hit, experts called for the restoration of the birth policy, did you have to give birth whether you want to give birth or not? Will China's demographic dividend disappear completely?
Figure 1
Future trends
Many experts call for increasing the birth rate to delay the crisis caused by the aging population.
They believe that the goals of sustainable population development and stable socio-economic development can only be achieved through dual efforts to increase fertility and control the rate of aging.
According to the Wanyu Population Study, China's population is expected to fall below 1.4 billion by 2027 and 1.3 billion by 2043.
This projection is based on the assumption of a low fertility rate, which is an average of 0.8 children per couple.
It is estimated that by 2035, China will enter a stage of severe aging, when the mainland will exceed 400 million elderly people over 60 years old, accounting for more than 30% of the total population.
This means that one in three Chinese is elderly. This trend is due to the continued substitution of the continent's birth rate and increasing life expectancy.
Figure 2
A crisis that cannot be ignored
First of all, with the aging of the population, the shortage of labor resources will gradually appear. This is because the elderly are usually past the optimal working age and their physical functions are declining, and the increase in their population will lead to a gradual decrease in the number of working-age people.
Since the working-age population is the main source of social productivity, their reduction will lead to a shortage of supply in the labor market, making it difficult for companies to recruit the right employees to meet the demand for production and services. This will further affect economic growth and social development.
Second, an aging population will lead to increased pension and medical costs. In general, older people have poorer health than younger people and are more likely to suffer from chronic or multiple diseases, so more medical services and social security are needed.
Third, the aging of the population will lead to a decrease in education investment and reduce the quality and level of education.
Figure 3
On the one hand, the increase in the number of elderly people will lead to greater financial pressure on schools and educational institutions to maintain normal operations.
On the other hand, an aging population will also lead to a decrease in the number of students. In this case, schools may need to reduce the scale of teaching, reduce teachers' salaries and benefits, etc., to ensure daily operations and development. These initiatives may impact student learning experiences and outcomes, reducing the quality and level of education.
In addition, the impact of population ageing on government debt is severe. Due to the increasing pressure on social security, the government has to increase social security spending to ensure the basic life and rights of the elderly.
However, with insufficient revenue or slow growth, it is difficult for the government to balance the budget by raising taxes or cutting other spending.
Therefore, the government may borrow to finance the fiscal deficit, thereby increasing the government's fiscal burden and debt risk.
Figure 4
Current situation and challenges
In response to the growing problem of an aging population, the Chinese government implemented a comprehensive two-child policy as early as 2016, allowing all married couples to freely choose to have two children or more.
The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy can greatly increase the birth rate, not only help alleviate the social crisis caused by the aging of the population, but also meet the different wishes of different families in childbearing.
In the past, due to the influence of the family planning policy, many families could only have one or two children, which led to the family structure tending to be smaller and more centralized.
With the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, couples can choose the number of children according to their actual needs, so as to meet the needs of different families.
In addition, a comprehensive two-child policy can also help promote gender equality.
In the past, due to the impact of the family planning policy, many families preferred to have boys rather than girls, which led to an imbalance between men and women.
Figure 5
The implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy can give every family an equal opportunity to have children, thereby reducing the problem of gender discrimination.
However, despite years of implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the downward trend in the birth rate continues.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births nationwide in 2022 was only 9.56 million, down nearly a third from 14.65 million in 2019 and a new low.
This data shows that even if the government adopts a series of policies to encourage childbearing, it will not be able to reverse the decline in the birth rate.
So why is this happening?
With the improvement of China's economic development level, people's life pressure is also increasing, so some families may give up having children because they cannot afford the cost of having children and raising children.
Increased educational attainment may also lead to lower fertility rates.
Modern society focuses on personal development and career planning, and many young people may be more inclined to pursue their careers and dreams, and cannot devote too much time to their children.
Figure 6
The lack of employment opportunities will also lead to a decline in people's willingness to have children. Many women have difficulty returning to the workforce after having a baby, forcing them to postpone or abandon their birth plans.
It may be related to changes in demographics. China's aging population is becoming increasingly prominent, which means that the labor supply is reduced, the burden on families is increasing, and young couples are under certain pressure to give birth.
At the same time, the trend of longevity has increased the pressure of ordinary families on the elderly, which has further affected people's willingness to have children.
Although the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy provides families with more birth options, the difficulty or cost of childbirth are still two major problems.
On the contrary, in order to encourage childbearing, some regions have adopted excessively harsh measures, such as forced sterilization and forced sterilization, which may provoke public rejection.
It can be seen that it is not easy to achieve the goal of alleviating the demographic crisis. Simply restarting the birth plan is not enough.
Figure 7
On the one hand, with the acceleration of socio-economic development and urbanization, people's lifestyles and values have undergone great changes, and many young couples are more inclined to pursue personal careers and quality of life than families and children in the traditional sense.
In addition, social security issues such as education, medical care, and pension also bring great pressure and burden to young couples, which may further inhibit their willingness to have children.
On the other hand, the government also needs to take more effective measures to encourage fertility. For example, we will increase investment in education, medical care, social security and other fields, improve the level of health security for women and children, and optimize tax policies and fiscal expenditure structures.
At the same time, it is also necessary to strengthen publicity and education to let people understand the importance and benefits of fertility and enhance public awareness and confidence in fertility.
New policies are on the way
Perhaps the country has paid attention to the crux of the continued decline in fertility, and Hangzhou took the lead in promulgating new policies as a pilot.
Figure 8
Hangzhou has implemented a new policy since September 10, families who are willing to have a second child can receive 7,000 yuan, and families who continue to have three children can receive 25,000 yuan. It is not difficult to see that the fertility rate has become an urgent problem to be solved.
This new policy was introduced by Hangzhou in response to the national family plan. Its purpose is to encourage eligible couples to have more children, alleviate the pressure of population aging, improve the quality and structure of the population, and promote economic and social development.
In addition to providing childcare subsidies, Hangzhou also gives preferential policies to three-child families in terms of house purchase, lottery, education, medical treatment and other aspects.
Hangzhou's new policies have aroused widespread concern and discussion from all walks of life. Some people believe that this is a positive and effective measure that can stimulate people's willingness to have children, increase the demographic dividend, and enhance the country's competitiveness.
Others argue that it is an impractical and unfair measure that does not address the root causes of people's reluctance to have children, such as the high cost of education, low social security, and unbalanced sex ratios.
Figure 9
In addition to Hangzhou, governments across China have also introduced policies to encourage childbirth. For example, Beijing has introduced a "three-child family" incentive policy, including preferential treatment for house purchases, children's schooling and other benefits.
Guangdong Province stipulates that both spouses aged 35 and above can enjoy birth incentives. These policies have alleviated the problems of aging population and labor shortage to a certain extent, but they still need to be further optimized and improved.
In any case, the New Deal is an attempt and a response to the current demographic problem. We look forward to their expected results and provide reference for other cities.
At the same time, we also hope that the state can introduce more comprehensive and scientific policies in various aspects to create an environment and conditions more conducive to childbearing and upbringing.
What else can we do ourselves?
In addition to government policies and measures, individuals should also be actively involved in procreation.
First of all, individuals can also start with themselves and take some measures to improve their willingness and ability to have children.
Figure 10
For example, strengthening exercise and maintaining a healthy lifestyle can not only improve your fertility, but also lay a good foundation for future parenting life.
At the same time, you can actively learn and master parenting knowledge and skills, and prepare in advance so that you can better cope with parenting challenges.
Secondly, families and society should also provide more support and help to young couples. For example, in housing, the government can introduce relevant policies to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing, reduce housing costs, and reduce the financial burden of young couples.
In terms of education, the construction of preschool education and childcare services can be strengthened, the quality of early childhood education can be improved, and more choices and conveniences can be provided for young couples.
Finally, Governments and society need to strengthen information and education. Some people still have resistance or concerns about fertility. For example, worry that your children will affect your career development, worry about excessive financial pressure, worry about the quality of your children's education, etc.
Figure 11
To address these issues, we need to educate people about the importance and benefits of fertility, as well as provide more information and service support so that young couples can face the challenges of childbearing and parenting with greater confidence.
In short, achieving sustainable population development and stable socio-economic development requires the joint efforts of the Government, society and individuals. Only through multi-party cooperation and coordination can we effectively deal with problems such as population aging and labor shortage, and realize the continuous release and development of the demographic dividend.