West African governments have ordered the region's military to immediately mobilize standby forces to possibly intervene in the uranium-rich country in an attempt to force the junta that took power in Niger last month to reverse the coup.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Thursday ordered the activation of the force and issued a statement saying it still hoped that Niger would peacefully restore democracy. ECOWAS has threatened to send troops if the military junta in Niger fails to restore the power of President Mohamed Bazoum by last Sunday.
Nigerian President Bora Tinubu said Thursday after chairing a meeting of ECOWAS heads of state in Abuja: "There is no option, including the use of force as a last resort. I hope that, through our collective efforts, we will be able to reach a peaceful settlement that will serve as a road map for the restoration of stability and democracy in Niger. Everything has not been lost. ”
Mali and Burkina Faso, led by soldiers who seized power, expressed solidarity with Niger's junta and warned that any military intervention would be considered a declaration of war. Guinea also expressed its support for the Niger.
ECOWAS did not specify the size of the intervention force or which member States would be involved. It was not clear what the deployment and launch of this force would bring, and the statement also stressed the determination to preserve all options for a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
A military source told CNN that Niger's armed forces appear to be preparing for a possible military intervention this week. On Sunday evening, a convoy of about 40 pickup trucks arrived in the capital, carrying troops from other parts of the country.
Some analysts told CNN that a military intervention in Niger may not happen immediately because it takes time to build up ECOWAS forces.
Franklin Niamsi, president of the African Freedom Institute, warned in an interview with RT last week that if the group tried to overthrow the military junta in Niger by force, it could trigger a world war in Africa.
ECOWAS member States, including Nigeria, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire, called for the reinstatement of the former Government of the Niger. The President of Côte d'Ivoire, Alassane Ouattara, condemned the house arrest of Bazoum as an act of terror.
At Thursday's summit in Abuja, he told reporters: "We don't accept it, we won't accept a coup." These mutineers must step down. If they don't let Bazom go out to do his duty, I think we should move on and get them out. ”
Murtala Abdallahi, a defense and security analyst in Abuja, told reporters that the communiqué was meant to mobilize needed resources when intervention was needed, but it was also a signal to the military junta in Niger that ECOWAS was prepared to take the necessary action, including the use of force if negotiations failed.
The group has not given any timetable, and the current chairman, Nigerian President Bora Tinobu, has insisted that the use of force will be a last resort. However, security analyst Abdourahamane Alkassoum told CNN that Niger may receive the news in a more urgent way, noting that the Niger military has been gaining support on the ground as ECOWAS continues its tough rhetoric.
Another expert recalled that it took ECOWAS seven weeks to deploy to the Gambia in 2017 – a task that is not as complex as Niger.
"The mission to the Gambia is much simpler," said Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Niger is not just an intervention, but the rescue of a hostage from a president who is under house arrest and used as a human shield by the junta.
"Niger has a significant U.S.-trained army that has been tested for years against insurgency," he said.
Niger's junta ignored the demands of the regional bloc and vowed to defend the country from any foreign attack.
Antineckar Hassan, political adviser to ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, told RIA Novosti on Wednesday that a military intervention in Niger could trigger a broader war.
"I don't think the Economic Community of West African States would make the mistake of military intervention in Niger, because if they intervene militarily, it would mean that the whole of Africa would be at war," Hassan said.
Bazum was arrested on July 26 by a group of Nigerien officers led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatened to deploy troops unless he returned to power, but their ultimatum to Niamey expired on Sunday.
At the same time, the bloc has closed its borders and stopped all trade and transactions with Niger. Hassan said he opposed the sanctions, calling them illegal. "We are against sanctions. They will hurt the people of Niger, not the junta," he said.
Hassan said the new junta refused to engage in any negotiations with the ousted president, who had no intention of stepping down. "He has not signed any documents and is not ready to resign. He would rather die than resign," Hassan said.
On August 4, Bazom published an op-ed in The Washington Post, purportedly written in prison, calling on the United States Government and the international community as a whole to help us restore order.
ECOWAS military leaders reportedly finalized war plans on Friday, but noted that actual intervention would require political decisions from the group's governments. Chad and Guinea oppose sanctions and intervention in Niger, while Burkina Faso and Mali say they will treat any military action against Niamey as a declaration of war against both countries.
According to the French broadcaster RFI, which is banned in Niger, the Economic Community of West African States is amassing about 25,000 troops, most of them from neighboring Nigeria.
The new military junta in Niamey on Wednesday accused France of releasing terrorists so they could attack a military camp in Niger and violate the country's airspace as part of a destabilizing campaign.
Paris denied that any terrorists had been released or that there had been any attacks, and insisted that French aircraft were operating in Niger's airspace under a military agreement with the Bazoum government. France refused to acknowledge that the generals refused to reach a deal last week and vowed to keep about 1,500 troops in the Sahel.