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Copywriter|Qianbufan
Editor|Qianbufan
preface
Recently, ASML, the world's largest manufacturer of lithography machines, published their financial statements for the second quarter of 2023 online.
Based on this financial statement, we can see that ASML's sales revenue of immersion DUV lithography machines increased by 19 percentage points compared to the first quarter in the second quarter, while sales of ArFi equipment also increased by 14 units.
Through these data, it is found that SAML's financial growth is mainly from the Chinese market, which undoubtedly confirms three previous rumors about the company's relationship with the Chinese market.
They will sell more lithography machines to the Chinese market this year, and foreign media have also reported that ASML is still inseparable from China after all.
ASML revealed the news in advance
At the end of January this year, in order to increase restrictions on mainland chips, the United States joined forces with Japan and the Netherlands to jointly agree on how to strengthen restrictions on mainland chips.
This was originally something that the United States, Japan and the Netherlands carried out secretly, but it was revealed that their plan had not yet been implemented, and it was known to the world.
According to relevant reports, the first to reveal the plans of the United States, Japan and the Netherlands was ASML, the world's largest lithography machine manufacturer.
They revealed that the United States, Japan and the Netherlands will soon expand restrictions on lithography machines, and further restrict the export of immersion DUV lithography machines on the basis of the original restrictions on EUV exports.
But at the same time, they also said: These restrictions will not affect their shipment of older models of 1980D immersion lithography machines to the mainland.
The information revealed by ASML, if you only look at the first two sentences, it is very confusing, it is clear that when the United States announced restrictions on mainland chips, there was ASML among his accomplices.
Why is it that now he is competing against the will of the United States to inform the world of their plans in advance, but when you see the words said by ASML, you can understand that ASML is sending a signal of goodwill to the mainland.
Tell us that while the United States, Japan and the Netherlands have not yet begun to implement this plan, we should quickly order lithography machines from them, and at the same time indicate which model is not restricted by the United States and can be bought with confidence.
Now, after seeing ASML's second quarter financial results, we are sure that ASML was thinking that way.
Because in this report, the proportion of revenue from the mainland market alone reached 24%, and in the first quarter, this proportion was only 8%.
It can be seen that if the United States, Japan and the Netherlands implement that plan, it will have a certain impact on the future of ASNL.
Some people may be puzzled by this, why did ASML disclose the news to us against their wishes in the United States, why did they not directly send us their advanced lithography machine?
Because FDP rules stipulate that if a foreign company uses equipment or technology provided by the United States in the production process, the United States has the right to restrict who its products can be sold.
Therefore, ASML, as a Dutch enterprise, is subject to the constraints of the United States, mainly because they are producing and manufacturing lithography machines that are used in the United States, and they cannot be replaced.
Otherwise, ASML would have kicked the United States away long ago, and it would be the turn of the United States to flaunt its might there and hinder them from making money.
Then again, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands secretly discussed dealing with the mainland, ASML as an enterprise how he knew, this has to talk about the second rumor.
The Netherlands restricts advance communication with ASML
At that time, some people said that after the discussion between the United States, Japan and the Netherlands, the Netherlands informed ASML in advance of their plans to restrict them, because ASML even knew what type of lithography machine was not restricted.
Of course, this is just everyone's speculation, but then the information announced by the Dutch side to the outside world is roughly the same as the information disclosed by ASML, which undoubtedly confirms the fact that they communicated with ASML in advance.
And one of their senior officials said in response to reporters: "There are still a large number of older models of DUV lithography machines allowed to be sold to China." ”
Regarding the information disclosed by the high-ranking official in the Netherlands, some foreign media said that they are reassuring the mainland, so that we can buy their equipment with confidence.
In the face of the goodwill shown by the Dutch side, some people think that they are trying to make us money, because they sell us old models that they want to retire.
If they are really good for China, then do not restrict mainland chips, sell directly to the most advanced equipment in the mainland, and don't make it like the United States sanctions Huawei.
On the one hand, Qualcomm is not allowed to sell 5G chips to them, but it is not prohibited from selling 4G chips to Huawei, which is obviously to make our money, but does not want Huawei to completely surpass them.
And ASML obviously thinks so, but for the old models they sell to the mainland, it is also of some help to the mainland at present.
ASML orders were cancelled significantly by major manufacturers
The third rumor is that because of the recent downturn in the overall situation of the chip industry, many wafer foundry capacity has declined, causing them to slow down their company's expansion plans.
This led to their cancellation of orders with ASML, although ASML previously said that those companies only postponed the order, not for the need for orders.
That said, but now from ASML's second-quarter financial statements, their EUV revenue in the second quarter was 17 percentage points lower than the first quarter, and the number of units was reduced by 5, and ASML's revenue in other areas also declined.
This also makes ASML's previous statement self-defeating, and their overall earnings in the second quarter far exceeded the first quarter, which is undoubtedly the contribution made by mainland enterprises.
Moreover, China, as the world's largest consumer electronics market, with the continuous development of science and technology in recent years, the mainland's demand for chips is increasing, which is a big cake for ASML.
Nowadays, Continental's lithography machine is in the process of development, and ASML's advanced equipment and technology are crucial to the demand of the mainland market.
In turn, it is also a good time for ASML to make money, if at this time, they listen to the United States and do not sell lithography machines to the mainland, it will be a missed opportunity for him.
And now the overall situation of the chip industry is down, which means that the sales of lithography machines they produce are decreasing, which is a huge blow to ASML.
At this time, only the mainland can help him, so when the United States wants to expand restrictions on mainland mainland chips, disclose news to the outside world in advance, and let mainland companies buy their equipment in advance, otherwise their equipment will be smashed in their hands at that time.
In this regard, some foreign media said: ASML is inseparable from China after all.
But the mainland cannot always rely on ASML "handouts", let him "jam" our "neck" and treat us as cash cows.
China's first domestic lithography machine came out
In recent years, in order to get rid of the restrictions of American chips, the mainland is no longer "stuck in the neck" by them, and has not given up the research and development of the mainland's own lithography machine.
In February this year, the first domestic lithography machine developed by Shanghai Microelectronics was officially unveiled to us, and it was handed over to Kunshan Tongxingda for use.
Although the lithography machine now manufactured by the mainland is far from the world's top 5nm process lithography machine, and even the 3nm level that has been developed.
But we are gradually shortening the gap with them, and now Continental's lithography machine technology has broken through the upper limit of 22nm.
And according to Shanghai Microelectronics, they are trying to break through 14nm technology, which shows that mainland researchers have the ability to independently develop high-end lithography machines.
The blockade of Western countries will not only not bring us down, but will force us to constantly improve ourselves and stimulate our capabilities.
Impact
With the advent of mainland lithography machines, the CEOs of American chip giants NVIDIA, Qualcomm and Intel could not sit still and approached the Biden administration to let them not restrict China's chip imports.
The reason why they jumped out to speak for the mainland at this time is not out of good intentions, but entirely out of their own interests.
At present, the mainland has the ability to independently develop and produce lithography machines, although it can only produce 28nm chips, and there is still a big gap with the most advanced 7nm and even 3nm chips.
But it's only a matter of time for us, which makes them have to think about their strategy for the mainland market and the chip industry.
As mentioned above, the United States is ready to further restrict chip exports to the mainland, which is crucial for those chip giants.
Because according to statistics, last year, 64% of Qualcomm's revenue, 27% of Intel's revenue and one-fifth of NVIDIA's revenue came from the Chinese market.
If the United States increases restrictions on the export of chips to the mainland, the losses to these chip giants are undoubtedly huge, how can they watch their interests suffer?
Not to mention that they jumped out to oppose, as far as the United States has repeatedly provoked and sanctioned the mainland, how can the mainland allow them to bully us.
China strikes back
The United States restricts the export of chips to the mainland, and the mainland regulates gallium and germanium, the raw materials used to produce chips. Because gallium is the direct source of the fourth generation of semiconductor materials, it determines the future development trend of semiconductors, and germanium is the main production material of the military industry.
According to 2021 statistics, the annual output of gallium in the mainland is as high as 97.6%, while the production of germanium accounts for 80% of the world.
And following China's announcement of export controls on these two elements, Russian media also broke the news that their companies will increase germanium production.
Because before that, Russia has not carried out large-scale high-intensity full-capacity production for the purpose of maintaining strategic resources.
Now the mainland and Russia are blocked by US science and technology, and the other is under US economic sanctions, but our two countries hold the necessary raw materials for Western countries.
It can be said that if our two countries cut off the export of these two raw materials, without these two raw materials, not only the US semiconductor industry will face the risk of stopping production, but also the world's chip production will face a situation where there are no materials available.
epilogue
Therefore, I hope that those countries or enterprises that follow the United States and want to sanction the mainland will think about it and not make decisions lightly, so as not to hurt themselves when they get hurt.
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END
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