At present, more than half a month has passed since the "rebellion" of the Russian private military group Wagner, and Russia's social security and military order have long returned to normal.
After Wagner's "mutiny" came to an abrupt end, Russian President Vladimir Putin pronounced Wagner's "death sentence" in a nationally televised speech on June 26, saying that Wagner was no longer allowed to maintain a military presence within Russian jurisdiction, and only allowed Wagnerian soldiers to join the regular Russian army, unload their armor and return to the fields, or go to Belarus. On the same day, Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, also announced that "Wagner will eventually be disbanded" by July.
However, Wagner's movements since then have always been foggy, and contradictory news has been constantly released, making it difficult to understand Wagner's true fate. What is certain is that Wagner remains active to this day. A few days ago, Putin even proposed to let Wagner continue to lead by a military figure codenamed "gray hair" and "restore the status quo."
So, what is Wagner's current situation? Will the military presence continue? Is it even possible to re-engage in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
On June 27, 2023, local time, the Wagner headquarters building in St. Petersburg was photographed. Visual China infographic
What is the current situation at Wagner?
Wagner's recent moves are very contradictory, and after being "sentenced to death" in late June, Wagner has recently handed over weapons to the Russian Defense Ministry and is still recruiting new soldiers.
According to a report by Russia's TASS news agency on July 12, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement on the 11th that the Russian army is about to complete the work of receiving weapons and equipment from the Wagner Group. According to data disclosed by the Russian military, Wagner handed over more than 2,000 pieces of heavy weapons and equipment such as rocket launchers, air defense systems, armored vehicles and more than 2,500 tons of various ammunition. This statement means that Wagner has lost its combat effectiveness and Prigozhin has at least partially fulfilled the agreement he reached with the Russian Defense Ministry in June.
However, Wagner is unlikely to disappear anytime soon. On the contrary, after entering July, Wagner is still openly recruiting new recruits in Russia. According to the Financial Times on July 5, on July 4, Wagner's recruiters made it clear that the recruitment plan would not change in any way due to the failure of the "insurgency", and that the newly recruited soldiers still signed contracts with the Wagner Group and remained in the Krasnodar Territory of Russia for training. This clearly violates the ultimatum of the Russian Ministry of Defense that Wagner soldiers must sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense by July 1. The Financial Times analyzed that the move to recruit new soldiers proves that Wagner will remain in place for a long time and continue to participate in Russia's military affairs in some form.
Russian online media outlet "Осторожно, Media" also quoted well-known Russian host Ксения Собчак on the social platform Telegram on July 2 to report that Wagner is still recruiting soldiers "in order to continue to participate in the special military operation." Sobchak said Wagner was recruiting up to six arms including signalmen, gunners and engineers.
In addition, Wagner posted on the social platform Telegram on July 15 to continue recruiting soldiers: "All posts in the Krasnodar Territory remain vacant. Wagner also promised to pay 240,000 rubles (about 19,025 yuan) a monthly basic salary, plus bonuses, insurance, etc.
On April 14, 2023, local time, in Donbass, a member of the Wagner Group patrolled in Bakhmut. Visual China infographic
Are there soldiers leaving?
In his June 26 speech, Putin promised to offer Wagner's soldiers three options: join the regular Russian army, unload their armor and return to the fields, or go to Belarus. In short, Putin demanded the banning of Wagner's military presence on Russian territory. Did the Wagner soldiers really get the choice, and how many chose to leave Wagner?
According to Russia's Interfax news agency on July 2, Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) Chairman Volodin posted on social platforms summarizing the "attempted coup": "Many members of Wagner have agreed to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense to join the regular army." "At present, the Russian Ministry of Defense has not released information on the recruitment of Wagner personnel as it did with the seizure of Wagner weapons, nor has there been any news of Wagnerian grassroots organizations announcing their entry into the regular Russian army. According to Russia's Kommersant newspaper on July 13, Putin admitted in an interview that Prigozhin still did not accept the proposal to adapt Wagner soldiers.
There is no evidence that Wagnerian soldiers were demobilized on a large scale. Wagner's move to recruit new soldiers in Russia suggests that Russian officials have not implemented the goal of banning Wagner's military presence in Russia.
The definitive news is that some Wagner members have indeed travelled to Belarus. According to Russia Today TV (RT) on July 16, Wagner members are training soldiers of the Belarusian army and conducting military exercises with the Belarusian army. The Belarusian Defense Ministry also issued a statement on July 14, saying that Wagner would assist Belarus in developing a "roadmap" for military training.
On July 17, 2023, local time, Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, hundreds of military personnel of the Russian private military group "Wagner" arrived in Central Africa to help maintain security on the occasion of the referendum. Surging image
Return to the battlefield?
According to Russia's Kommersant newspaper on July 13, Putin revealed in an interview that he recently met with 35 members of the Wagner organization and provided them with a new way out: the person who served as the actual commander in the past 16 months, codenamed "gray hair", led the Wagner organization. Putin said that in this model, "everything will remain the same", which means that Wagner may return to the pre-"rebellion" organizational model, that is, continue to exist in the form of private mercenaries. To this end, Putin hinted at the possibility of giving Wagner legal status: "This is actually a matter of legalization and should be left to the State Duma and the government." ”
Reuters reported in a July 14 article that the military figure designated to take over Wagner, codenamed "Gray Hair," was likely Andrei Troshev (Андрей Трошев). Previously, the French Ministry of Finance and official documents of the European Union used the term "white hair" to refer to Troshev. In its 2021 document, the European Union described Troshev as "the executive head of the Wagner organization," which is consistent with Putin's claim that "Wagner is actually led by 'gray hair'". According to reports, Troshev has been the commander of the rapid reaction forces of the Russian army for many years. In a photo leaked in 2017, Troshev was photographed with Putin and Prigo. Reuters analysis pointed out that Troshev may be the Wagner assigned by Putin to join, playing the role of a contact between Wagner and the Russian military.
The renewed softening of Russia's official position paved the way for Wagner to maintain a military presence in Russia. Public opinion believes that Wagner is likely to re-establish a military presence in the future, at least going to Africa or Syria to return to his old business, and being employed by the Russian military to carry out overseas military missions. Some analysts even pointed out that Russia cannot afford the consequences of losing Wagner's force, and Putin's statement may lay the groundwork for Wagner's return to the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) recently pointed out that in the battle of Bakhmut, which lasted almost a whole year, Wagner had already proved that it was indispensable to the Russian army. In the widely circulated video of Prigozhin scolding Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov, Prigozhin accused the Russian regular army of fleeing without a fight on the outskirts of Bakhmut, causing Wagner to be attacked on three sides of the frontal battlefield. Analysts believe that Ukraine is currently carrying out a "summer counteroffensive", and the Russian army is under great pressure and needs Wagner's return.
Sean Bell, a military scholar, analyzed that whether it was the long-term "exile" of Wagner to Belarus, the unarmament of Wagnerian soldiers to the fields, or the dilution into the regular Russian army, it was an unwise move to cut off his own arm. "Russia cannot afford the consequences of losing its best and most experienced fighters in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict", so Putin is willing to soften his position and propose that Wagner "return to the original state" under the leadership of the "white-haired" Troshev, which means that Wagner will return to the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield as a whole in the future.