Among the 1,721 companies that issued interim performance forecasts, nearly 55% were not optimistic. Artificial intelligence listed companies whose stock prices rose sharply before, many companies predicted a decline in performance or losses
Wen | Zhang Yun
Editor|Yang Xiuhong
This year's interim performance forecast has been disclosed.
According to Wind data, 1,721 A-share listed companies disclosed their mid-report performance forecasts, accounting for about one-third of all A-share listed companies. Among them, there are 780 companies that have released forecasts of good performance (pre-increase, continued profit, slight increase, and turnaround), accounting for about 45%. The remaining types of companies that disclose performance forecasts come from the less optimistic categories of slight reduction, first loss, continuing loss, pre-reduction and uncertainty.
From the perspective of the exchange's mandatory disclosure of interim report forecasts, listed companies on the main board have the obligation to mandatory disclosure of performance forecasts, while ChiNext and STAR Board do not need mandatory disclosure of performance changes, so the overall number of performance forecast disclosures is only one-third of all A-share companies. According to the statistics of China Merchants Securities, the disclosure rates of the main board, ChiNext board, science and technology innovation board and Beijing Stock Exchange were 47.9%, 11.4%, 6.1% and 1.4% respectively.
China Merchants Securities Research Report shows that although the improvement rate of the 2023 mid-year report forecast is slightly higher than that of the same period in 2022, it is still at a low level compared with the performance forecast data of the past 13 quarters.
The performance forecast of artificial intelligence (AI) listed companies that is hot in the market is not as good as expected, and 360 (601360. SH), iFLYTEK (002230. SZ), Inspur Software (600765. SH) and other performances are either pre-loss or decline, contrary to the performance of the secondary market stock prices of these companies.
China Merchants Securities Research believes that the growth rate of the performance of the report is expected to be higher or the improvement is relatively large, mainly in the midstream manufacturing field that benefits from the joint drive of domestic and foreign demand, the travel and consumption sector that continues to recover, the TMT field with high prosperity, some real estate industry chains, and subdivided fields such as power generation and power grid, securities, and traditional Chinese medicine production.
The maximum pre-increase is nearly 90 times
Long-term logistics (603569. SH) became the listed company with the largest increase in the performance forecast. The company reported an increase of 8941.59%, and the net profit attributable to listed companies is expected to be 40 million yuan to 55 million yuan. The reason for the pre-increase is that "the automotive industry maintained steady development in the first half of 2023, with an increase in production and sales, and China's automobile exports also continued to grow rapidly, so the company's main business gradually recovered in line with the trend, while the international business performed well".
The profit of Changlong Logistics in the same period of 2022 is only 608,300 yuan, which is a low base growth. In the secondary market, the stock price of Changchang Logistics once hit the limit on July 17.
Linzhou Heavy Machinery (002535. SZ) rose to the limit on July 17, and the stock price rose from about -7% to the upper limit, with an amplitude of 17.21%. Previously, Linzhou Heavy Machinery had walked out of the trend of six days and five boards, but at that time, the market did not link the continuous rise of Linzhou Heavy Machinery with the pre-increase of the report.
(Top 10 listed companies reporting pre-increase in performance)
Although the performance of the above-mentioned companies is expected to increase significantly, in terms of amount, they all belong to the situation of a low base in the same period of 2022. The listed company with good performance and the largest profit amount is BYD (002594. SZ）。 The company expects to make a profit of 10.5 billion yuan to 11.7 billion yuan in the first half of this year, a change of 192.05% to 225.43% over the same period last year.
The flip side of BYD's continued good performance is that Buffett continues to reduce his holdings. After twelve rounds of reduction, the number of BYD H shares held by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has become 98.6031 million shares, with a shareholding ratio of 8.98%, and the last reduction disclosure date is June 19, 2023.
In addition to BYD, the listed companies that are expected to report a large amount of profit and good performance include Huaneng International (600011. SH), JA Technology (002459. SZ), Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway (601816. SH), Luxshare Precision (002475. SZ), TCL Central (002129.SZ), etc.
(Top 20 listed companies with large profits and good reported performance)
Among the 1,721 listed companies that disclosed their performance forecasts, nearly 55% of them did not have optimistic performance forecasts. In terms of individual stocks, the largest decline was Weilong shares, which is expected to report its first loss, and the overall decline in performance is 12579.92%.
(Top 10 listed companies reporting performance losses)
From the perspective of the industry, in the performance forecast of this interim report, compared with the data of the first quarter, the major industries that have improved to varying degrees include finance, real estate, public utilities, midstream manufacturing, consumer services, etc. Healthcare, information technology, resource goods, etc. saw a large decline in profits.
Subdivided into Shenwan's first-class industries, among the listed companies that have issued performance forecasts, machinery, power equipment and new energy, automobiles, transportation, commercial retail, consumer services, home appliances, media, non-bank finance and other industries have a growth rate of 50%-200%.
China Merchants Securities believes that the midstream manufacturing sector, the travel and consumption sector that continues to recover, the TMT sector that is booming, some real estate industry chains, power generation and power grid, securities, traditional Chinese medicine production and other sub-sectors that benefit from the joint drive of domestic and foreign demand are likely to show a relatively large improvement and a higher growth rate in the performance of the report.
(Source: China Merchants Securities Research Report)
Artificial intelligence performance fell short of expectations
In the first half of the year, the artificial intelligence sector as a whole rose by more than 30%, but the performance of popular stocks was frequently worried.
360 recently released a performance forecast, saying that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company of about -230 million yuan in the half year of 2023. The company's net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the same period of 2022 was -398 million yuan, and despite a 42.21% reduction in the loss this year, it still failed to make a profit.
360 explained that there are two main reasons for the continued loss reported this year: first, the Internet advertising and service business has been affected by the decline in the industry and continued the downward trend; Second, it recognized an investment gain or loss of RMB230 million and a gain or loss on changes in fair value, which was "caused by a large loss in some joint ventures". 360 said that excluding the impact of investment profit and loss and fair value change gain and loss, the company's main business basically achieved breakeven.
360's stock price rose to 20.85 yuan / share this year, the highest increase was 197.92%, and the stock price has fallen back to around 12 yuan / share, and the increase has also shrunk to about 80% this year.
360 is not the only artificial intelligence listed company whose growth has diverged from its performance this year. iFLYTEK also previously announced that its reported net profit attributable to the parent will decrease by 71%-80% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the profit in the same period of 2022 will be 278 million yuan, and the preliminary estimate this year is only about 55 million yuan to 80 million yuan.
iFLYTEK attributed the reason for the pre-reduction in performance to the fact that it has been included in the US entity list since 2019. After the third quarter of 2022, the United States increased sanctions against 28 leading enterprises and institutions in the field of Chinese intelligence, high-performance chips and supercomputers, including iFLYTEK. Affected by this, the company needs to further adjust the development platform of core technologies and products, while also rationalizing the supply chain.
Inspur Information reported a net profit attributable to the parent this year also down 60%-70% from the same period last year, and is expected to make a profit of 286 million yuan to 381 million yuan, compared with a profit of 954 million yuan in the same period last year. The company said that operating income declined due to factors such as tight global supply of GPUs (graphics processing units) and related specialized chips. Inspur fell to a halt in the secondary market after announcing the above-mentioned interim earnings forecast, after the company disclosed that executives would reduce their holdings in the second half of this year. The executives who reduced their holdings held a total of 656,700 shares, accounting for 0.0447% of the total share capital, and are expected to reduce their holdings by 164,200 shares, accounting for 0.0112% of the total share capital.
Among the AI holdings is iFLYTEK, which disclosed that shareholder China University of Science and Technology Asset Management Co., Ltd. reduced its stake by 0.36% between April and June this year.
In April, 360 broke out a divorce case, and the actual controller Zhou Hongyi divorced Hu Huan, who divided 6.25% of the equity of the listed company. Zhou Hongyi promised not to reduce his holdings within 12 months, while Hu Huan promised not to reduce his holdings within six months, "even if there are relevant plans in the next 6-12 months, the number of shares to be reduced will not exceed 1.25% of the company's total share capital, and the status of a major shareholder with a shareholding ratio of not less than 5% will be maintained."