Can the inflow of northbound capital replicate the beginning of the year, and which industries benefit the most?
The RMB exchange rate stabilized this week, driving market volatility upward to recover last week's losses, and northbound net inflows for five consecutive days.
After three consecutive weeks of net outflows, northbound funds turned significantly this week, with a large net inflow of 19.8 billion yuan, which is closely related to the tail end of the US interest rate hike cycle, and a new round of easing cycle can be expected.
Will the northbound funds become continuous "living water"? Everbright Securities conducted a special analysis.
First of all, from the perspective of the inflow of northbound funds in recent years, when the northbound capital outflow turns into an inflow after many weeks, the inflow trend can often continue in the next month, and the probability of future inflow scale continues to expand.
In the medium term, the momentum of northbound capital inflows will also continue, and it is expected to repeat the trend since the beginning of the year:
The background of the sharp inflow of funds from the north at the beginning of the year is the expected easing of overseas liquidity + the rapid improvement of the domestic economy, which is similar to the current situation.
However, the expected improvement is likely to be significantly weaker now than at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the July Politburo meeting is also worth paying attention to, if the expectation of stable domestic growth gradually lands, overseas funds may also be more active.
In terms of the structure of capital inflow to the north, the inflow sectors are still dominated by new energy, TMT and consumption:
The industries with the highest net inflows include electrical equipment, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobiles, but there are some differences, such as more inflows into media that previously had little inflows, while there were fewer net inflows into non-bank finance, banking and household appliances, which were previously preferred.
Network security丨Led by the idea of network power, the network security industry may welcome multiple catalysts
Recently, the highest level has issued important instructions on network security and informatization work, emphasizing the in-depth implementation of the important thinking of the Party Central Committee on network power, and vigorously promoting the high-quality development of network information.
The computer team of Minsheng Securities believes that the high-level speech and the issuance of the "Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services" reflect the increasingly prominent role of network security and informatization in the new era and new journey. Under the general trend of AI supervision + data elements + network security, relevant manufacturers are worth paying attention to.
According to the computer team of Zheshang Securities, the internal branches of the industry reported optimistic expectations, and the inflection point of profit side improvement appeared.
According to the company that has disclosed the forecast of the 2023 half-year report, Venustech, Electric Technology Network Security and Geer Software are expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent of 178%, 23% and 17% in the first half of 2023 (refer to the lower limit of the performance forecast). In particular, Venustech is expected to deduct non-attributable net profit of 0.15-25 million yuan in 2023Q2, achieving a turnaround and a year-on-year improvement in gross profit.
More importantly, large models enable industries to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and at the same time promote security protection requirements in new scenarios:
On the one hand, Microsoft released the artificial intelligence-enabled security analysis tool - SecurityCopilot, which integrates OpenAI's large-language model GPT-4 with security-related models from Microsoft, providing users with ChatGPT-like assistant functions, kicking off the disruption of the global cybersecurity industry. At the same time, many domestic security vendors are promoting their layout in the field of AI, which is expected to promote the reform and development of the network security industry.
On the other hand, the emergence of AI large models is accompanied by the training and invocation of a large amount of data, and there is a risk of illegal data acquisition and information leakage, and in the process of opening APIs to the outside world, with the increase of open API interfaces, it may also lead to an increase in exposed security issues, and it is expected to further promote security requirements represented by data security, API security, and cloud security in the large model scenario.
A-share related companies: Venustech, Meiyapaike, Haohan Deep, Zhongxin Saike, Hengwei Technology, etc.
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