Per reporter: Zhao Yun Per editor: Xiao Ruidong
In the past trading week (7.10~7.14), A-shares experienced a slow but firm rebound, and both the market and the peripheral sentiment have improved a lot.
But for "AI people", the fly in the ointment is that the artificial intelligence sector is not prominent enough in this round of rebound. It is the semiconductor chip-related branches that steal the limelight, and there is a sense of loss that "the next-door neighbor is suddenly more developed than me".
So, will the AI market still have a new high? It just so happened that a high-performing fund manager recently expressed his views in his semi-annual report, let's take a look at it together.
Weekly market review: In addition to stock indexes, these are also rising
Most of the major stock indexes rose this week, with the ChiNext Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 and CSI 500 up 2.53%, 2.35%, 1.92% and 1.16% respectively, while the Science and Technology 50 fell 0.03%.
In terms of public funds, the weekly gainer list was "brushed" by ETFs. However, it can also be seen from the name that their bright performance is more due to the strong rebound of Hong Kong stocks.
After all, the Hang Seng Index rose 5.71% in 5 days, and the Hang Seng Technology Index was even more exaggerated, rising 8.39%. The reason for the rebound is not difficult to find - the big good thing for the platform economy the week before, everyone remembers, right?
In terms of weekly declines, medical theme-related funds are the mainstay, but the decline is not large, and it should only be a normal adjustment.
Behind the rebound of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is the weakening of the US dollar index and the significant strengthening of the RMB.
After closing down for several consecutive trading days, the dollar index fell below the 100-point integer mark on the evening of July 13, Beijing time, the first time since April 2022. Wind data showed that as of Friday's close at 99.96 points, the dollar index still fluctuated below 100 points, and the lowest intraday test was 99.5742 points, refreshing the low level in nearly 15 months.
The offshore yuan broke the previous trend, starting from last Thursday, from 7.27 to 7.16 in seven days, and touched 7.12 intraday on July 14.
Some people say that "the dollar falls to all things". In the five trading days this week, northbound funds increased their positions in A-shares by nearly 20 billion. Data show that northbound funds have a cumulative transaction of 539.165 billion yuan this week, with a net purchase of 19.844 billion yuan, and the net purchase amount in a single week hit a new high in more than five months. Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect bought a total of 10.974 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect bought a total of 8.87 billion yuan.
What are the northbound funds buying? Wind data shows that in the past 7 trading days, CATL, Kweichow Moutai and Changjiang Power have been increased by more than 1 billion yuan, and Wuliangye, Inspur Information, and BYD are also favored.
In terms of selling, Hudian Shares, China Exempt, Haitian Weiye, LONGi Green Energy and China Merchants Bank all reduced their positions by more than 400 million yuan.
"Champion" fund managers: optimistic about computing power, electronic semiconductors and automotive intelligence
Although artificial intelligence is not the vanguard of the rebound this week, a public fund's semi-annual report released on Thursday deserves the attention of all AI people.
The fund, called "Soochow Mobile Internet A", ended the first half of the year with a return of 71%, ranking 7th; The first place is Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF.
However, as of the close of this Friday, Soochow Mobile Internet temporarily ranked first in the year with a yield of 74.59%, achieving a reversal. It is worth noting that it is the same fund manager as Soochow New Trend Value Line ranked 6th - Liu Yuanhai.
According to the half-year report, Soochow Mobile Internet's stock position was 89.95%, a slight increase from 85.55% at the end of the first quarter. In terms of heavy stocks, it increased its positions in Tianfu Communications, Zhongji Xuchuang, GigaDevice Innovation, iFLYTEK, and Shuguang, and reduced its position in Kingsoft Office. Compared with the positions at the end of the first quarter, in addition to Kingsoft Office, the top 5 heavy stocks in Soochow Mobile Internet's mixed positions were all replaced, and Luxshare Precision, Desay SV, Weier Co., Ltd., and FII became new heavy stocks. Among them, Luxshare Precision is among the top ten heavy stocks, accounting for 9.17% of net value.
Old AI people must be able to notice that in the latest heavy stocks, most of the gains during the year are not low. For example, Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication are several times the shares.
Liu Yuanhai believes that the good performance of his products in the first half of the year is because he has relatively well grasped the investment opportunities in the technology industry. "At the end of last year, we judged that there were big opportunities in technology stocks in 2023. After the Spring Festival, it is judged that artificial intelligence technology represented by ChatGPT is expected to bring a technological revolution, and technology stocks may have greater investment opportunities. ”
Looking forward to the second half of the year, he judged that the current A-share market may be in the operating environment of the three relative bottoms of policy bottom, profit bottom and valuation bottom, so the downside risk of the market is relatively small, and the medium and long-term investment value may be more obvious. Based on this judgment, the Fund may still maintain a high position operation mode in the second half of the year.
In line with the view at the end of the previous quarter, he still believes that the AI artificial intelligence technology represented by ChatGPT is expected to drive global technology into a new round of innovation and application cycle, and at the same time, the digital economy is expected to become a new growth driver for China's economy in the next 3-5 years or even longer, judging that the A-share market in the next 3-5 years or even longer will enter the era of technology stocks, optimistic about the A-share market technology stocks in the next 3-5 years or even longer, and will continue to focus on technology stocks.
Specific to the main line of investment in the second half of the year, Liu Yuanhai said that the next step is relatively optimistic about the development direction of the three major AI technologies that benefit from computing power, electronic semiconductors and automotive intelligence.
"The growth of computing power in the next two years may be relatively certain, although the short-term stock price fluctuations are relatively large, but because the performance has not yet been realized, there are still investment opportunities."
He said frankly that the stock price of A-share electronic semiconductor companies in the first half of the year was "more tangled", but at the current point, you can consider gradually paying attention to A-share electronic semiconductor investment opportunities. "From the stock price point of view, the current stock prices of most A-share electronic semiconductor companies are basically in the relative bottom area of the past two years."
Liu Yuanhai judged that from a fundamental point of view, from the second half of the year, the electronic semiconductor boom is expected to enter an upward cycle, and the application of ChatGPT technology is expected to bring about the birth of more intelligent hardware to drive a new round of replacement tide, which is expected to improve the recovery intensity of the electronic semiconductor boom. In the second half of the year, A-share electronic semiconductor stock investment opportunities may be worth paying attention to.
In addition, he also mentioned that the trend of automotive intelligence industry is expected to accelerate, the automotive intelligent market space is large, and the duration is long, and the future investment opportunities may be worth paying attention to.
The U.S. AI leader is still hitting new highs
Since the beginning of this year, the AI sector has been recognized as one of the main lines of the A-share market. Overseas, investor enthusiasm is even more excessive.
On Friday, local time, NVIDIA rose more than 3% in early trading, and the stock price hit a record high of $480 during the session, and since the beginning of this year, NVIDIA has "taken off" from $140 all the way and is currently up more than 217%.
It is no exaggeration to say that the wind and grass of NVIDIA's stock price have affected the A-share artificial intelligence sector. At present, NVIDIA is still generally optimistic about Wall Street. On Tuesday, analysts at investment bank KeyBanc raised its price target on Nvidia to $550, saying that Nvidia is fundamentally well-positioned. Analysts believe that the demand trend for generative AI servers is rising across the supply chain, with strong demand coming not only from cloud computing, but also from enterprises and AI startups. Analysts expect the company's data center revenue to quadruple by 2024.
At the same time, Microsoft, which is closely related to OpenAI, is also constantly hitting historical highs.
On July 15, Microsoft rose more than 2% to $351.43 in early trading, and finally closed up nearly 0.8% to $345.24, rising for four consecutive days to approach the historical high on June 15, and Microsoft has risen more than 44% this year.
In addition, Broadcom, known as the "next Nvidia," also hit an all-time high of $903.35 on Friday, and Broadcom is up more than 60% this year.
Institutional View: What else can we focus on besides AI?
After the market closed on Friday, the Cyberspace Administration of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, announced the Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services, which will come into force on August 15, 2023.
Essence Securities said that the implementation of the policy is fully conducive to the development of the AI industry, on the one hand, it clarifies regulatory measures such as regulatory entities and filing, which is expected to drive the products and needs of AI safety supervision; On the other hand, to achieve equal emphasis on development and security, computing power, algorithms, and application industries are expected to enter the fast lane.
It is worth noting that from July 14 to 15, the National Network Security and Informatization Work Conference was held in Beijing; On Saturday, cybersecurity and informatization work was also given important instructions. I believe that the relevant sectors will perform next week.
Of course, investors' firm belief in AI does not prevent the market from improving in other sectors - after all, money always flows in the direction of least resistance. Here are some of the institutional views.
China Merchants Strategy believes that at present, about 1,720 listed companies have disclosed the 2023 interim report performance forecast/express report/report, with a good performance rate of 45.3%, and the overall profit growth rate of A-shares is in the process of bottoming out. The segments with improved performance and rising prosperity are concentrated in the fields of midstream manufacturing driven by domestic and foreign demand, mobility/consumption with sustained recovery, TMT with high prosperity, home appliances, power generation and power grid, securities, and traditional Chinese medicine production. Historical data shows that industries with high performance forecasts tend to have leading returns in July and August, and it is recommended to pay attention to the segments with higher growth rates or large improvement in the performance of the report. Reported earnings growth rate in major industries: It is expected that the growth rate of midstream manufacturing and consumer services will be relatively high and improving, and financial real estate will be relatively stable. The performance of the TMT field was differentiated, and the decline in upstream resource goods earnings continued to expand. From the perspective of valuation and earnings matching in 2023, PEG<1 industries are concentrated in midstream manufacturing (power equipment and new energy, defense and defense industry, machinery), consumer services (commercial retail, light manufacturing, textile and apparel), and some cyclical industries (steel, real estate, transportation, power and utilities, etc.).
Chen Guo of CSC said in the research report that after the low point of Hong Kong stocks appeared in June, the recently released US non-farm payrolls data in July cooled down, and the CPI in June was lower than expected, and the two anchors of employment and inflation, which restricted the Fed's monetary policy in the early stage, both moved in a positive direction; Domestically, Sino-US relations have eased recently, while the domestic stable growth policy is expected to be positive, and the economy is expected to continue to recover in the second half of the year. The liquidity problems currently plaguing the Hong Kong stock market have improved significantly, and it is expected that Hong Kong stocks will resume their rally in the future. In terms of direction, it is expected that value growth will be vigorous, and the AH premium of central enterprises has reached a historical high, and it is expected to converge in the future; The reversal of the Internet leader's prosperity has been confirmed, and the follow-up gradually unfolds with the gradual shift of AI from the logic of the overseas industrial chain to the logic of the domestic industrial chain.
Tianfeng Securities Research reported that El Niño hit, 2023H1 China's high temperature days hit a record high in the same period, China Electricity Union predicts that the highest load of national electricity consumption in 2023 will increase by 0.8-100 million kilowatts, but in the past year, China's new stable energy (thermal power + nuclear power) is only 52 million kilowatts. On the whole, it is expected that the overall balance of national power supply and demand will be tight in 2023, and the supply and demand of electricity during peak hours in some regions will be tight. By comparing the excess returns of various concept indices in the summer with the Shanghai Composite Index, and considering the background of tight electricity consumption in summer, the agency expects that power supply assurance and load-side flexible adjustment may be a track worthy of attention for the power industry.
Daily economic news