1) This week, northbound funds made five consecutive net purchases, with a total net purchase of nearly 20 billion yuan, the largest weekly net purchase in 23 weeks;
2) Northbound funds bottomed out the consumption and increased positions in the TMT industry, increasing positions by more than 4 billion yuan and 6 billion yuan respectively;
3) The liquor faucet increased its position by nearly 2 billion yuan, and the AI server leader increased its position by more than 800 million yuan against the trend.
This week, northbound funds bought net for five consecutive trading days, the longest consecutive net buying in nearly two months, and the net purchase of 19.599 billion yuan for the whole week, the largest weekly net purchase in 23 weeks. In terms of markets, Shanghai Stock Connect bought 10.965 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect bought 8.634 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, northbound funds have bought a net of 193.59 billion yuan, which is twice that of last year.
The large-scale sweep of northbound funds, the three major A-share indexes also fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.76%, and the ChiNext up 2.53%.
The sharp net buying of northbound funds this week has a lot to do with the sharp appreciation of the RMB exchange rate. In the past 10 trading days, the yuan has risen 1,163 basis points, or 1.60%.
Foreign capital bottomed out and increased its position in the TMT industry
From the perspective of the Shenwan industry where northbound funds increased their positions, food and beverage became the largest industry in northbound funds, with a net purchase of 2.899 billion yuan, and the net purchase of electronics, communications, and non-bank finance also exceeded 2 billion yuan, ranking second to fourth in the net buying industry. In addition, the net purchase of more than 1 billion yuan also included pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, household appliances, computers, basic chemicals, and power equipment.
It is worth mentioning that among the top 10 industries for net purchases of northbound funds, the TMT (computer, electronics, media and communications) industry occupies three seats, namely electronics (2.561 billion yuan), communications (2.491 billion yuan) and computers (1.355 billion yuan)
Electronics, communications, and computers are the main industries that constitute the hardware end of artificial intelligence, and the key to artificial intelligence lies in computing power, and electronics and communication are the basic underlying logic of computing power. Therefore, with the in-depth advancement of large models, the demand for computing power surges, the demand for computing power infrastructure such as chips and optical modules will increase greatly, and the industry will obviously usher in new growth points.
It is worth mentioning that in the top ten industries where northbound funds increased their positions, except for pharmaceuticals and biotechnology and household appliances, all other industries rose with the trend.
From the perspective of Shenwan's secondary industries, among consumer stocks, liquor net purchases were the largest, reaching 3.570 billion yuan, and it was also the only industry with a net purchase of more than 3 billion yuan, and communication services and batteries ranked second and third, with net purchases of 1.961 billion yuan and 1.780 billion yuan respectively; In addition, securities, semiconductors, medical services, white goods, optical optoelectronics, joint-stock banks, software development and other industries bought more than 1 billion yuan.
From the perspective of the sub-sectors in which northbound funds have increased their positions, low level + industry improvement is the focus of northbound capital positions.
Taking semiconductors, medical services, and optical optoelectronics as examples, these industries have a large adjustment in the early stage, and there is an expectation of improvement in the industry. Liquor, brokers, etc. are the reasons for the large adjustment range, with phased allocation value.
In terms of net sales, national defense industry, transportation, machinery and equipment, real estate, beauty care, building materials, and social services ranked first in net sales, with net sales of more than 100 million yuan, of which national defense industry, transportation, and machinery and equipment sold 1-3 places, with net sales of 717 million yuan, 592 million yuan and 493 million yuan respectively.
The liquor leader increased its position by nearly 2 billion yuan, bucking the trend and increasing its position in the AI server leader
From the perspective of northbound capital to increase the position of individual stocks, there were 102 stocks with a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan this week, including 32 stocks with a net purchase of more than 300 million yuan. There were only 4 net purchases of more than 1 billion yuan, Kweichow Moutai ranked first with a net purchase of 1.964 billion yuan, CATL ranked second with a net purchase of 1.562 billion yuan, and Wuliangye and Changjiang Power ranked third and fourth with net purchases of 1.079 billion yuan and 1.047 billion yuan respectively. In addition, China Telecom, Inspur Information, and TCL Technology bought more than 700 million yuan in net purchases.
The liquor leader Kweichow Moutai increased its position by nearly 2 billion yuan, adding 1.14 million shares to the number of holdings of 88.48 million shares.
On the evening of July 13, the main operating data of the first half of the year was released, and after preliminary calculation, in the first half of 2023, the company is expected to achieve a total operating income of about 70.6 billion yuan (including Moutai wine operating income of about 59.1 billion yuan and series wine operating income of about 9.9 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of about 18.8%; It is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of about 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 19.5%.
It is worth noting that the wave information of the AI server leader reported a thunderous performance, but the northbound capital bucked the trend to buy a net of 830 million yuan, adding 19.39 million shares and holding 59.58 million shares, a new high in nearly one and a half years.
On July 12, Inspur Information released a performance forecast, and it is expected that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2023 will be 286.2796 million yuan - 381.7061 million yuan, down 60%-70% compared with the same period of the previous year.
Previously, a number of securities research reports made predictions on Inspur's net profit attributable to the parent in 2023, with an average forecast of 2.6 billion yuan.
Although Inspur reported less than expected performance, northbound funds bucked the trend and increased their positions, more importantly, the company's position as the leader of global AI servers.
Inspur is the first server supplier in the Chinese market and the forefront of the global market, with the industry's most complete AI computing full-stack solution, in 2022, the company's AI server market share ranked first in the world, ranking first in China's AI server market for six consecutive years (market share of more than 50% from 2017 to 2021)
According to Counterpoint and IDC data, it is estimated that in 2022, global and Chinese server revenues will be $111.7 billion and $27.34 billion, respectively, +17% and +8.97% year-on-year. Among them, global and Chinese AI server revenue was US$18.3 billion and US$6.7 billion, respectively, +17.3% and +24% year-on-year. The release of ChatGPT will open a "new ten-year cycle" in the technology industry, and the high demand for large model training and inference will drive the AI server industry into a period of rapid growth.
In terms of net selling of individual stocks, there were 58 stocks with a net sale of more than 100 million yuan, of which 15 stocks sold more than 300 million yuan, of which Hudian shares and Haitian Weiye ranked the top two in net sales, both with net sales of more than 700 million yuan.
It should be noted that however, the people's network of the three-board board was sold by northbound funds for a net of more than 300 million yuan.
What to do next week?
Judging from the market trajectory this week, the market does not have a clear main line, the funds are mainly based on sector rotation, and the direction of low + industry improvement + sharp rise in performance has been favored by the main funds including northbound funds. With the continuous disclosure of the results of the report, companies with a large increase in performance will be favored by funds, and the direction of the industry to usher in an inflection point will also be favored by funds.
Focus: Semiconductor equipment materials, memory chips, panels, TMT industries, and companies reporting significant improvements in performance.
The above views do not constitute any operational advice, the stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious. This newspaper is based on the principles of independence, objectivity, impartiality and prudence, the information is derived from public information, the company does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of this information.