Wen 丨 Xiaoqi is a little strange
Editor丨Xiaoqi is a little strange
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preface
Recently, the oil cooperation between China and Iran has made headlines around the world, and the international community has paid great attention to the oil transaction between China and Iran. Why is the international community so concerned about the oil trade between China and Iran? This still has to start with the US monetary system.
As we all know, the value of the American currency is inextricably linked to oil, and its monetary system, to a certain extent, is based on oil. However, recently, the oil trade between China and Iran has been challenging the status of the US currency to a certain extent, so that the United States is also facing a greater impact.
According to data released by two global energy shipping companies, Iran sent 29 million tons of oil to China
Some time ago, two global energy shipping companies released a set of data, according to their statistics, the amount of oil shipped by Iran to China has reached a staggering value - 29 million tons, and this is only an approximate value, the specific value will only be higher than this. As soon as this news came out, it immediately attracted the close attention of all countries in the world, and the international community also had a better understanding of the energy trade between China and Iran.
Due to its large land area and large population, China has a larger market in its own country, more demand for various energy sources, and naturally a lot of demand for oil, and is also one of the largest oil importers in the world.
In addition to importing oil from Iran, China will also import this kind of energy from other countries, China's oil suppliers are also Russia and Saudi Arabia and other countries, and due to the development of the economy, industrial fields, China's demand for oil is also increasing, in the future, China may choose to import more oil from more countries to supply its own use, which also provides certain opportunities for the economic and trade development of other countries.
In the current international environment, China's increasing demand for oil as an energy source has also made China's influence in this field become more and more large, further increasing China's voice in national affairs.
China itself actively responds to the global call, promotes the transformation of its own energy structure, and uses as much clean energy as possible in daily use, in order to protect the global environment and cope with climate change with other countries.
Iran's government has publicly stated that China and Iran will definitely have more cooperation in oil in the future; In the past two years, Iran has successively shipped no less than 29 million tons of oil to China, and it is worth noting that the price of oil between China and Iran is slightly lower than the international price of oil.
Undoubtedly, this is definitely good news for trade cooperation between China and Iran, but it may not be the case for other countries. This news is definitely not good news for the United States.
If Iran and other countries supply a sufficient amount of oil to China, and the price is slightly lower than the market price, then the United States will permanently lose the huge market of China, which will make its influence less impacted, resulting in some pressures and problems from all sides.
The deepening of oil trade cooperation between China and Iran has impacted the globalization status of the US dollar
In today's international trade, most of the time everyone will choose to use the US dollar for settlement, which has also made the global status of the US dollar continue to increase, and gradually become a global reserve currency.
The main reason for this phenomenon is that the United States has unparalleled economic influence in the world, and in recent years, the international economic system has been relatively stable and has not undergone any major changes.
Oil is one of the largest traded goods in the context of global trade, and it also laid the foundation for the dollar to become the global currency.
Because in the previous oil trade, a country wants to import oil, must use the dollar to pay, and most countries in the world demand for oil is not very small, which makes most countries choose more reserves of US dollars, supply their own oil trade with oil exporters, further consolidate the position of the US dollar in the global economy.
In recent years, China has imported a large amount of oil from Iran and other countries, and in the future, it may import more oil, which provides the possibility of using currencies such as the renminbi to pay for oil trade between China and Iran, which will reduce the use of the dollar to a certain extent, which in turn makes the demand for the dollar in China and Iran also change and become less.
Both the global trading system and the global financial system have undergone certain changes over time, and have gradually developed in the direction of diversification and complexity, and countries around the world are more inclined to use their own currencies for payment when conducting international trade.
The same is true when investing, as far as possible, will use the national currency as the denominated currency, in the greatest extent, reduce the dependence of their own country on the US dollar. All this has made the globalization status of the dollar have been affected to a certain extent, and the United States has been forced to face some challenges.
Once the countries of the world really reduce their dependence on the dollar and use their own currencies in international trade and investment, the dollar will lose its dominant position in the global currency, which will also cause the United States' own financial system and economic trade to suffer a huge impact.
The United States can no longer print dollars as before, in order to meet the needs of countries around the world. Prior to this, most of the time the United States continued to print dollars to maintain its own national balance, if the dollar could not be circulated as the main currency of global trade, the United States' own balance of payments and trade with other countries would be greatly affected.
As a result, the international status of the United States has been affected, and its voice in international affairs has become smaller. Therefore, from this point of view, the oil trade between China and Iran will indeed have an adverse impact on the United States on a certain basis.
Why is the United States in this situation? What causes this?
As the world's largest economy, the strength of the United States in all aspects is unquestionable, so why can an oil trade between China and Iran have an impact on the global status of the dollar, further affecting the US economy?
In the final analysis, it is the United States itself that is overconfident in dealing with some affairs, which has led it to make some strategic mistakes that have led to today's situation. Some outside media believe that the reason why the United States is facing today's situation is entirely because it has made three strategic mistakes.
The first strategic mistake made by the United States was to choose to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement, and in 2018, the US government suddenly publicly announced its unilateral withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, and at the same time, and united with its friendly allies to impose all-round sanctions on Iran, which made Iran's development face great challenges.
Due to the draconian sanctions of the United States, Iran has no way to conduct its own international trade in a normal manner. From the perspective of international law and conventions, this act of the United States is extremely inappropriate and has seriously violated international law and conventions.
While bringing great resistance to Iran's economy and trade, the United States itself has also been affected, its influence and image in the Middle East have plummeted, and most countries in the Middle East have also lost trust in the United States. In the multi-faceted sanctions of the United States, Iran has to choose to survive in the cracks and actively seek cooperation with other countries.
As one of the world's largest oil importers, China has a strong demand for cooperation with Iran, so far, China and Iran have reached an agreement on oil trade, and choose to use RMB or other currencies for trade settlement, which also reduces the dependence and demand of China and Iran on the US dollar.
With the deepening of oil trade between China and Iran, the amount of oil imported by China from Iran continues to increase, and the oil trade settlement between the two countries no longer uses the US dollar, which to a certain extent has a certain impact on the global status of the US dollar and has also had a certain adverse impact on the US financial system.
The second strategic mistake the United States has made: launching a trade war against China. As we all know, in 2018, the United States took the lead in launching a trade war with China, wanting to cause certain damage to China's interests by increasing the collection of tariffs, and to put pressure on China to force China to make concessions in the trade between the two countries.
Because the United States launched this move too suddenly, it did have a certain negative impact on China's economy, but the result did not go as he hoped, China not only successfully survived that relatively "difficult" time, but also made its own economy further develop with its own efforts.
However, the United States not only did not benefit from this move, but also lost China as a partner, and at the same time, lost China's huge market, which can be said to be somewhat worth the loss.
In the face of the improper measures of the United States, China did not choose to blindly tolerate again, but used the same countermeasures against the United States, which not only effectively protected its own rights and interests, but also promoted the adjustment of its own economic results to a certain extent, improved its own scientific and technological innovation capabilities, and reduced China's dependence on other countries' technology and external markets to varying degrees.
However, objectively speaking, the negative impact of the trade war on China and the United States is unpredictable, and as the world's largest economies, the two countries broke out a trade war, which also had a greater adverse impact on the development of the world economy.
The third strategic mistake made by the United States is to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. As a sovereign country, we must defend our territorial integrity and sovereign independence to the death. Since 2019, many high-level officials in the United States have repeatedly talked about China's internal affairs in different public occasions, and issued warnings and threats to China on China's internal affairs, in an attempt to split China and hinder China's development.
In fact, the US move has not received the support of too many countries and has not been recognized by the international community, but has damaged its international image. Today, the United States can openly interfere in China's internal affairs, so who can guarantee that it will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries tomorrow? On the contrary, the state and society have unanimously praised and appreciated China's firm efforts to safeguard its national rights and interests.
China has also actively responded to the call of the international community and contributed its own strength to the stability and development of the international community. In contrast to the United States, which is committed to maintaining its position as the world's hegemon, and even does not hesitate to provoke war, world peace has been greatly challenged, and the credibility of the United States in the international community has once again declined.
epilogue
The purpose of US Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to China is to no longer "decouple" trade between China and the United States, and she has publicly stated many times that the United States cannot choose to "decouple" from China if it wants its own economic development to continue to maintain a good trend.
It is reported that Yellen met with Chinese high-level officials and reached a number of consensuses, but it is uncertain whether these consensuses can help the United States solve its own difficulties.
The United States has made these three strategic mistakes, and if it wants to solve them by Yellen's visit to China, it is unlikely to be achieved, and to truly solve these problems, the United States needs to adjust its attitude and way of doing things.
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