If Yellen's visit to China fails, will the United States start a war against China?
Before and during Yellen's visit to China, the US media threatened China that if Yellen's visit to China failed, the United States would start a war. For this threat from the US media, there are also some domestic views that if Yellen's visit to China fails and the US demands cannot be met, then Washington may launch a war against China.
In response to this problem, many comrades-in-arms asked what they thought. There are two connotations of how to see this, one is whether Yellen's visit to China is successful or unsuccessful, and the other is if the United States finally confirms that China cannot meet its demands, will it really start a war against China?
In fact, as stated in the analysis before Yellen's visit to China, Yellen's visit to China cannot get what she wants, in fact, Yellen made it clear before her visit that she should not expect this visit to China to be really effective. In fact, towards the end of her visit to China, she held a press conference to conclude that despite the remaining differences between the United States and China, the meetings of recent days have further pushed bilateral relations back to a stable track. She reiterated that the United States does not seek to "decouple" from the Chinese economy.
Yellen said at the press conference that the visit involved about 10 hours of bilateral talks with Chinese officials, which were "direct, substantive and productive" and a step forward for the United States to promote "a stronger foundation for the U.S.-China relationship."
Yellen's words fully show that the United States has put forward what he wants China to do, and China has also put forward its own concerns and conditions, so the actual result is that Yellen has not taken away any substantive results, and China and the United States have only conducted "direct, substantive and productive" exchanges, just taking a step forward to promote a more solid foundation for Sino-US relations.
So, how does such an access define success and failure? If the criterion is whether or not the United States is met, then the visit is a failure, because Yellen has not taken anything substantial. On the contrary, if direct communication was used as a criterion, the visit was a success. However, it is clear that the visit is a clear failure if the US media demands.
However, from Yellen's statement, we can see that the so-called United States because it cannot meet the requirements to launch a war against China, in its opinion, now the United States does not dare! Or rather, the United States itself does not dare to directly clash with China now. On this point, we can see from the Biden administration's request for the installation of "guardrails" in Sino-US relations in the past two years that the United States does not want to provoke China and trigger a conflict between China and the United States because of its provocations. What the United States hopes to achieve is for China to tolerate American provocations, so that the United States can provoke China to the greatest extent while China can endure American provocations. But the fact is that China simply did not endure it, so the United States is very worried about the possibility of conflict between China and the United States.
If a hegemonic country like the United States is useful for China, will he still be so sharp? Therefore, it is believed that the United States alone does not dare to directly launch a direct military conflict against China at present. What the United States wants is to drag China into the quagmire of war with the help of conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, the peninsula, and the South China Sea, instead of directly entering into conflict with China itself.
China and the United States are not without the risk of conflict, but there is only one point where direct conflict between China and the United States is really possible, and that is because of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In fact, the United States does not dare to break out a conflict with China in the South China Sea, which was measured as early as 2016. At that time, the two US aircraft carrier fleets were forced away by China's live-fire naval exercises, and if they could conflict, they would already have clashed in 2016, how could they wait until 7 years later? Compared with 7 years ago, China's strength is now incomparable, 7 years ago the United States did not dare, how can it dare now?
So why might a conflict in the Taiwan Strait lead to a conflict between China and the United States?
The reason for this is very simple: once China uses force in the Taiwan Strait, it will inevitably take control of Taiwan in one fell swoop. China's military control of Taiwan means that the first island chain of the United States will be completely broken, and if the United States does not respond, the United States will face the embarrassing situation of having to withdraw from East Asia. If the United States were to withdraw from East Asia, it would mean that he would lose the entire Western Pacific. In this case, the possibility of a military conflict between the United States and China in order to compete with China for the Western Pacific is greatly increased. It is precisely because of this logic that there is a plan that must be taken into account by the United States, Japan, and Australia when China's military means are used to solve the Taiwan issue.
Therefore, Zhan Hao (WeChat public account: Zhan Hao) believes that the so-called failure of Yellen's visit to China will break out a military conflict between China and the United States, China and the United States can only break out a military conflict on the Taiwan issue, any other peripheral problems will not lead to a direct conflict between China and the United States, and the failure of the United States to find teeth in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea still makes the White House palpitate.
The United States did not dare to use force against China, and in addition to the historical shadow of the defeat of the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, the more important factor was China's industrial capacity and military strength. China has a huge industrial population, the most powerful manufacturing industry, strong scientific and technological strength, and a strong war potential, all of which are the reasons why the United States does not dare to go head-to-head with China around China. But, in addition to this, the United States has now practically lost the courage to go to war with China on its own.
This is not a casual statement, but there is a good basis. If the United States wants to win the war against China, it must overwhelm China at the naval and air force levels. Why not mention the Army? Because China is the king of land wars! In the 1950s, when China had no air supremacy, it could win the US army with the army alone. Therefore, for the US military, to win the war against China, it must completely press China in the navy and air force.
If the navy overwhelms China, the United States can control the entire ocean, and then cut off China's supply chain with the world, and it can block the Chinese economy. And if the navy wants to overwhelm China, the United States must first win air supremacy, the air force overwhelms China, and China is compressed in the air within the mainland, so that the Chinese navy cannot go out to sea, so that the United States can control the sea. By controlling the seas, it controlled China's economic development, and of course, the United States won the war.
However, the reality is that it is no longer possible for the US Navy and Air Force to win against China, or more accurately, it is impossible for the United States, whether it is the Navy or Air Force, to defeat China in the Western Pacific, the South China Sea, and the Indian Ocean.
Regarding the Navy, there was a recent interview with Admiral Paparo, commander of the US Navy's Pacific Fleet, in which he unabashedly expressed concern about "China's ability to deny long-range precision strike firepower in the Pacific region." He publicly acknowledged for the first time in an interview with CBS that "U.S. Navy aircraft carriers are unsafe within 1,500 nautical miles of China's coastline, and the U.S. military is working every day to develop strategies, technologies and operational procedures to deal with all this, and is working hard to develop weapon systems that can defend against China's long-range precision strike fire."
Paparo said in the interview that China has a large number of new anti-ship means, and the aircraft carrier represented by the USS Ford has become "a piece of fat meat" at sea.
In fact, Paparo's fears are not unfounded, but a series of facts. China now has many means to strike at the aircraft carrier fleet, and we can list some at will.
First of all, China has the ability to hit aircraft carriers with ballistic missiles, and both the DF-21D and DF-26 can hit aircraft carriers, which is already a very mature means for China.
Secondly, China also has the Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile that has been disclosed that it can also hit the aircraft carrier, and this missile has been mastered as early as the 70th anniversary parade of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 2019, I believe that China's hypersonic missile is not this one, and even we can believe that the Dongfeng-17 is not the most advanced hypersonic missile at all.
Third, China has the world's most advanced 055 destroyer, which carries a hypersonic missile YJ-21, which has a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, a flight speed of up to Mach 6, and a terminal speed of Mach 10. The range of the YJ-21 is even about the farthest combat radius of the US carrier-based aircraft, and once encountered at sea, only Chinese destroyers can fight the US military, while US warships cannot hit China's most advanced destroyers.
Fourth, China's H-6K fighters can carry hypersonic missiles to strike aircraft carriers. On this point, just before Blinken's visit to China, China's H-6K had already demonstrated this to the United States. In the face of the provocative demonstrations of the US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, the H-6K flew directly at low altitude, then passed through the air defense network of the US aircraft carrier fleet, and finally pulled up at a position of tens of kilometers from the US aircraft carrier, and then carried out radar illumination on the US aircraft carrier without the US military reacting. If even the bomb-6K can break through the air defense network of the US aircraft carrier, what qualifications does the United States have to make irresponsible remarks?
In fact, China is not the only means to attack aircraft carriers, China also has a series of means to attack US aircraft carriers.
In addition to China's anti-aircraft carrier strength that the United States does not have, China's current warship technology has also significantly surpassed the United States, China's 052D destroyer combat capability has been similar to the most advanced Arleigh Burke class in the United States, China's 055 destroyer combat effectiveness is much higher than Arleigh Burke class. Although China has not fully caught up with the United States in terms of aircraft carriers, China's electromagnetic catapult technology is superior to that of the United States. Although China is inferior to the United States in terms of the total tonnage of warships, China has surpassed the United States in the number of warships. Moreover, now China is building ships much faster than the US military.
In terms of shipbuilding capabilities, China is much stronger than the United States. China completed about 40 million tons of shipbuilding tonnage in 2022, while the US shipbuilding industry completed only 600,000 tons. For the United States, the more unfavorable news is that American warships have entered an aging period, a large number of aircraft carriers, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers have entered the retirement period, and the speed of US ship building cannot keep up with the speed of warship retirement. Over the next decade, a large number of U.S. aircraft carriers and destroyers face decommissioning, while Chinese warships are accelerating their manufacturing. It is estimated that in another decade, the total tonnage of China's warships will be close to or catch up with that of the United States.
In terms of air force, China's J-20 fighters have completely surpassed the American F-22 fighters, and even the technical capabilities of China's early warning aircraft have surpassed those of the United States. Chinese fighters can see American fighters, but American fighters cannot see Chinese fighters, which is mainly due to China's early warning aircraft technology and ground radar technology surpassing the United States.
Although China cannot catch up with the United States in the number of fighters, China has caught up with or even surpassed the United States in fighter technology. Then, if in the time of war, with China's industrial capabilities, once the industrial machine is started, the numerical advantage of the United States will soon disappear.
Let me ask, in this case, how can the US military single-handedly start a war with China? Moreover, although the US military still surpasses China in the total armament of the navy and air force, it is in peacetime, what if in wartime? Moreover, as far as the Asia-Pacific region is concerned, the total amount of equipment of China's navy and air force is still superior.
With these military strengths, it is impossible for the United States to make up its mind to fight China directly without the United States tearing their faces on the Taiwan Strait issue. Of course, for us, even the slightest possibility, China must be fully prepared! Once a conflict breaks out between China and the United States, China will resolutely fight and win! In a war around China, the United States will undoubtedly lose, and there is not the slightest possibility of defeating China!
Source: Zhanhao WeChat public account