On Monday (7.10), the three major indexes ushered in a shock rebound, the Shanghai Index ended its three-day losing streak, and the reddish closed up 0.22%; The ChiNext index rose 1.37%, leading the gains in both markets.
On the market, new energy track stocks collectively strengthened, and photovoltaic and lithium batteries rose sharply throughout the day; The "duty-free leader" China once closed the board, driving the recovery of consumer stocks; Medical, electrical, intelligent driving and other active performance. CPO, bots, ChatGPT concepts, etc. are deeply called.
After the adjustment in the second quarter, the current valuation of the A-share market has fallen back to the historically low level again, and the market is in a short-term trend of shock and bottoming, waiting for positive factors to catalyze.
With the concentrated disclosure of listed companies' interim forecasts/reports from mid-July to August, industries and individual stocks that have an inflection point in performance improvement or exceed expectations may gradually become the main line of investors' attention.
According to CICC's statistics and forecasts, the year-on-year profit growth rate in the second quarter was higher in retail, tourism, hotels and catering, non-alcoholic food and beverage, media and Internet, and light industry and daily chemicals.
In terms of specific direction, CICC recommends focusing on three main lines:
1) The main line of recovery where fundamentals are facing an inflection point and gradually bottoming out, such as bottom-up opportunities in the pan-consumer industry, midstream manufacturing and TMT;
2) Growth areas that benefit from industrial policy support and upward industrial trends, including technology software and hardware and high-end manufacturing;
3) High boom areas with reported performance exceeding expectations or improving month-on-month, such as export chains.
Let's take a closer look at today's market review.
【Market Hot Spot Review and Interpretation】
Today, the three major A-share indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.37%. The market volume can continue to shrink, with the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today being less than 800 billion yuan, and northbound funds buying a net of 1.23 billion yuan today.
From the perspective of individual stock performance, the stocks of the two markets were mixed today, with 2510 stocks rising, 2411 falling, and 279 flat, making money effect "preference".
From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry, today's power equipment, commercial retail, and basic chemicals are in the forefront of gold absorption, with the main funds increasing their positions by 5.252 billion yuan, 1.7 billion yuan and 1.424 billion yuan respectively. In terms of net outflow, today's main funds focused on reducing positions in computers, communications, electronics and other sectors, with net outflows of 1.901 billion yuan, 945 million yuan and 841 million yuan respectively.
Today, we will focus on the trading and fundamentals of the three thematic themes of chemicals, medical and brokerages.
I. 【Chemical ETF (516020)】
Today, new energy sectors such as photovoltaic, energy storage, and lithium batteries have collectively strengthened, "taking flight" to upstream chemical leaders. The subdivision chemical index rose more than 2% in early trading, and the gains fell in the afternoon, closing up 1.73% in late trading.
In subdivisions, fluorine chemicals, battery chemicals and other industries rose first. Sankeshu led by a 7.86% rise in half-year results, fluorine chemical leaders Juhua shares and polyfluoride rose 6.49% and 3.90% respectively, and battery chemical leaders Tianci Materials and Enjie rose 3.27% and 2.76% respectively.
In terms of representative ETFs in the market, chemical ETF (516020) maintained high volatility throughout the day after rushing higher in early trading, and the price in the market closed up 1.59% at the end of the day, and the daily turnover was enlarged to 26.24 million yuan. At the beginning of July, the ETF has received net subscriptions for four consecutive days, which may reflect that the market still has strong confidence in the recovery of the sector in the second half of the year.
1. Lithium carbonate futures and options are about to be listed, and the price of "white oil" is expected to stabilize
On the news, the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently approved the registration of lithium carbonate futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. In the next step, the CSRC will urge the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to do a good job in various tasks to ensure the smooth launch and steady operation of lithium carbonate futures and options.
In recent years, the spot price of lithium carbonate has shown a "roller coaster" market, which has a great impact on the upstream and downstream industries. Like in the first half of this year, the price of lithium carbonate showed a wave of downward trend, the price fell from a high of 566,000 yuan / ton to less than 200,000 yuan / ton, and the current price rebounded to around 300,000 yuan / ton.
Guosen Securities believes that the launch of lithium carbonate futures and options is expected to form a lithium carbonate price mechanism, improve spot price transparency, and provide effective risk management tools for industrial enterprises.
Looking forward to the future market, West China Securities pointed out that the peak consumption season of new energy vehicles is approaching, and material factories will enter the peak season replenishment stage, and it is expected that the market's procurement expectations for the middle and downstream will support lithium salt plants in the short term.
2. During the reporting window, high-performing stocks may become the main line of market attention
Entering the mid-report window, the first batch of chemical half-year performance forecasts surfaced. Recently, Sankeshu, a constituent stock of the chemical ETF, issued a pre-increase announcement on its 2023 half-year results, and it is expected that the company's half-year net profit attributable to the parent in 2023 will be 300 million yuan to 330 million yuan, an increase of 212.93% to 244.22% year-on-year; Guangdong Hongda expects the net profit attributable to the parent in the half year of 2023 to be 302 million yuan to 327 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%-30%; Zhongjian Technology expects the net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of 2023 to be 200 million yuan to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33% to 19.16%. At present, in the context of the ongoing recovery, the core indicators of chemical companies have quietly improved. Reflected in today's market, these three component stocks are all red to varying degrees, and the three trees rose 7.86% to lead the sector.
Nomura Oriental International believes that the chemical industry as a whole is operating in the bottom area, and enterprises optimize supply and demand by actively controlling the operating load, and the chemical leading chemical companies with leading advantages in technology, cost and management have strong performance resilience, and it is recommended to pay attention to the main line of performance in the report.
In the second half of the year, policy catalysis or will still be the main driving force for the current market repair, the valuation of the previously adjusted subdivision chemical index is cost-effective, with the strengthening of policy expectations, economic recovery accelerated, the chemical sector is expected to usher in repair.
The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Thematic Index, covering all segments of the chemical industry. Among them, nearly 50% of the positions are concentrated in large-capitalization leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Shares, Enjie Shares, Hualu Hengsheng, Tianci Materials, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc., to share the investment opportunities of the strong Hengqiang; The remaining 50% of the positions take into account the layout of leading stocks in phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical, fluorine chemical, nitrogen fertilizer, coal chemical, titanium dioxide and other subdivisions, and fully grasp the investment opportunities in the chemical sector.
II. 【Medical ETF (512170)】
Policies and "recovery" expectations continue to improve, and A-share medicine and medical warmth are gradually emerging. Today, the medical service sector is active across the board, with CXO concept stocks Haoyuan Pharmaceutical rising 6.41%, CXO leader WuXi AppTec rising 0.94%, and Kanglong Chemical and Kailaiying rising more than 1%; The hospital concept rebounded strongly, with "Eye Mao" Aier Eye Department rising 4.04% and "Tooth Mao" Tongce Medical rising 3.79%.
In terms of ETFs, the top medical ETF (512170) rose to 1.69% in early trading, driven by medical service weighted stocks, and then fell back in shock, mainly dragged down by medical equipment and medical beauty-related component stocks. By the close, the price of the medical ETF (512170) rose 0.72%, ending a three-game losing streak.
It is worth noting that the price of the medical ETF (512170) fell back to the range of the market again showed a premium, and the premium widened further in the afternoon, reflecting the relative strength of buying funds, or the continued entry of contingent funds. Wind data shows that in the downturn of the medical sector last week, the medical ETF (512170) accumulated more than 1 billion yuan to increase its position against the trend.
1. Heavy file release! What is the impact on the pharmaceutical and medical industry?
In terms of policy, the National Medical Security Administration recently issued two documents, the Rules for Negotiating Drug Renewals (2023 Draft for Comments) and the Rules for Non-exclusive Drug Bidding (Draft for Comments), which are important supporting documents for the management of the national basic medical insurance, work-related injury insurance and maternity insurance drug catalogue in 2023.
Hu Jie, fund manager of Medical ETF (512170), latest interpretation: The release of these two documents is expected to restore the confidence of the pharmaceutical and medical industry. Since 2018, the overall policy trend of the Medical Insurance Bureau has been to reduce prices and control fees, whether it is innovative drugs, generic drugs, and medical devices, but this document, the medical insurance renewal negotiations for innovative drugs, the price reduction requirements for renewal products have been reduced, and the amount of medical insurance payment nodes has also been increased by 50% (landing in 2025). For innovative pharmaceutical companies, it undoubtedly releases the signal that medical insurance will further increase support for innovative products, giving entrepreneurs and scientists more confidence, and for primary and secondary investors in the pharmaceutical industry, the future price decline of innovative products is expected to shrink, profit expectations are improved, and it will also help to repair investment confidence.
Combined with the marginal easing signal of the centralized procurement policy of medical consumables since the third quarter of last year, we can believe that the era of the most stringent cost control of the Medical Insurance Bureau has basically passed, and the formulation of national negotiations and centralized procurement rules will be more scientific and rational, and will be more from the perspective of supporting industrial innovation and development. This is a very significant benefit for the entire pharmaceutical and medical sector. Specific to the sub-sectors, we believe that the most direct benefits are the innovative drug sector and related industrial chains, such as CXO, as well as upstream innovative supply chain related companies; Secondly, from the perspective of the relaxation of payment restrictions on innovative products by the Medical Insurance Bureau, it is undoubtedly good for the innovative medical device sector.
2. Can medical treatment be "on the bus"? CICC: The bottom range may be actively concerned
Since the adjustment in the second half of 2021, the adjustment period of the medical sector has lasted for two years, and the valuation level of the CSI Medical Index has fallen back to a relatively low historical level, Wind data shows that as of July 7, the PE of CSI Medical was 28.69 times, at the 9.13% quantile since 2015, 50% lower than the historical median of 57.46 times.
Based on the current point of time to discuss the investment strategy of the medical sector, CICC's latest research report bluntly stated that "the bottom range may be actively concerned". CICC pointed out that recently, the stock prices of medical service companies represented by Aier Ophthalmology and Huaxia Ophthalmology have continued to reach new lows, and their valuations have entered the bottom range. We believe that the demand penetration rate of various projects is still very low and still strong in the current context, especially represented by disease and adolescent projects, with rigid demand and high performance fulfillment; Looking forward to the future, various project technologies are still in the stage of continuous iterative progress, which is expected to further improve the project penetration rate and consumers' willingness to pay. At the same time, the market share of various leading listed medical institutions is still at a low level, and the mature and expansion space of hospitals is large; Overall, the logic of long-term volume and price increases has not changed, and investors can consider actively paying attention.
CSC Securities said that it is expected that the domestic diagnosis and treatment volume will continue to recover in the second half of 2023. Since February 2023, the volume of diagnosis and treatment in mainland hospitals has gradually recovered, and the first quarterly report of listed companies also reflects a good recovery of terminals. It is expected that under the low base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of mainland hospitals in 2023Q2-Q4 will recover well.
From a strategic perspective, CSC said that the medical device sector selects structural opportunities around hospital-side recovery, policy clearance and pattern changes. Medical equipment: New medical infrastructure remains prosperous, optimistic about upstream investment opportunities in endoscopy, rehabilitation and equipment. High-value consumables: centralized procurement promotes the strategic adjustment of listed companies, and pays attention to the inflection point of the performance of centralized procurement varieties. IVD: Focus on routine diagnosis and treatment recovery and policy implementation. Low-value consumables: recovery of domestic beneficiary diagnosis and treatment volume and product upgrade, continuous acquisition of orders from overseas beneficiary large customers. Medical services: optimistic about ophthalmology and serious medical segments, terminal demand will continue to repair in 2023, and ophthalmic medical services will be more flexible.
Bullish on the valuation repair expectations of the healthcare sector and the medium and long-term investment value, focusing on the healthcare ETF (512170). According to the data, the constituent stocks of the CSI Medical Index tracked by the Medical ETF (512170) fully cover the subdivision leaders in the field of medical devices and medical services, of which the weight of medical devices is about 40%, which directly benefits from the new medical infrastructure in the post-epidemic era; The weight of medical service + medical beauty is about 50%, covering 9 CXO concept stocks, which directly benefits from the general trends of the times such as population aging, medical consumption upgrading and medical beauty. Medical ETF (512170) is an efficient investment tool for investors to "one-click layout of national health rigid demand sectors".
III. [Brokerage ETF (512000)]
Today's brokerage sector maintained a narrow red range for most of the time, and turned red again after a short green session in the afternoon, including 50 listed brokerage stocks, the CSI All Index Securities Company Index closed up 0.2%, individual stocks rose by half, Xiangcai shares rose 1.79%, Shenwan Hongyuan rose 1.7%, CICC rose 1%, China Galaxy, Guolian Securities, Guotai Junan and other gainers.
On behalf of ETFs, brokerage ETF (512000) opened high and volatile in early trading, rising as high as 0.82%, fell below the water surface in the afternoon, turned red again, and finally closed flat. The full-day turnover was 301 million yuan, a decrease of nearly 16% from the previous day.
1. The public offering fee was changed to boots, and the brokerage company welcomed the second configuration time window in the year
On the news, some head fund companies issued announcements last week to reduce the management fees and custody fees of their equity funds. A number of institutions issued comments, generally believing that the impact of this move on the performance of listed securities companies is controllable, which is beneficial to securities companies with superior institutional business.
Guotai Junan believes that the original intention of the policy is to promote a more sustainable and high-quality development of the fund industry, although the management fee for some fund products has been reduced, but taking into account factors such as reduced operating costs and minority shares, the impact on the overall profits of listed securities companies holding equity in fund companies is very small.
At the same time, the implementation of the policy is conducive to alleviating the market's pessimistic policy expectations for listed securities companies, and the subsequent performance of securities firms with competitive advantages in institutional business exceeds expectations.
West China Securities also believes that the public offering fee reduction mainly affects the performance of listed securities companies through two ways: agency sales and fund management. According to the 2022 data, it is estimated that the after-tax profit of listed securities companies brought by public offering fee reduction through agency sales decreased by about 0.55%, and the after-tax profit brought by fund management decreased by 1.89%, a total of 2.44%, and the overall impact was controllable. With the introduction of the reform policy on the investment side, the development of the A-share market will improve for a long time, and securities firms and public funds will continue to benefit.
Western Securities further pointed out that the short-term bearish landing, the brokerage sector may usher in the second allocation time window in the year.
1) The "rate reduction" boots landed, the short-term impact on profits is limited, the forecast or similar to the situation introduced at the beginning of the year Huatai Securities allotment plan, there will be a short-term impact, but after the bearish landing, the sector will usher in a rebound.
2) Brokerage sector sentiment & valuation has fallen to the lowest point, and there is a high probability that it will rebound in the future. The current valuation of the brokerage sector is at a historical low, and the valuation of the securities company index on July 7 was 1.28xPB, which is at the 8.54% decile point in the past decade; At the same time, the trading volume of securities stocks shrank to a low, with the turnover of brokerage stocks on July 5-6 reaching 8.8 billion yuan, down more than 90% from the high point on May 9.
3) After the rate reform is implemented, it will alleviate the market's pessimistic expectations for securities companies' policies, and pay attention to the marginal improvement of policies.
2. The attention of the performance of the report is heating up, and institutions: optimistic about the opportunity to repair the low valuation of securities firms
In the middle of the year, the mid-reporting season has arrived, and the market is paying more attention to the interim performance of brokerages. Institutions generally believe that brokerages will achieve profitability in the first half of the year.
CICC expects that in the second quarter of 2023, the revenue of listed securities companies will decrease by 14% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. Net income decreased 18% year-over-year and 7% sequentially; In the first half of 2023, the cumulative profit of listed securities companies increased by 15% year-on-year.
Huachuang Securities expects listed securities firms to achieve a net profit of 80.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%; Q2 net profit was 38.09 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year, and the recovery of self-operated business income promoted its performance growth in the first half of the year.
AVIC Securities said that from the performance point of view, because the overall performance of the market is better than the same period last year, proprietary business is expected to still become the performance support point of most brokers, so the overall revenue and net profit of brokerages still have a high probability of achieving positive growth. At present, the valuation of securities firms is at the bottom of history, with a high allocation cost performance, it is recommended to pay attention to the boosting effect of mid-report performance on valuation.
Looking forward to the future market, GF Securities pointed out that the short-term suppression of the industry has landed, and it is expected that the bottom of pan-wealth management will pick up. Leading securities firms with institutional advantages have stable endowments and medium-sized securities firms with high-quality regional low valuations have elastic advantages.
According to the data, the CSI All Index Securities Company Index tracked by the brokerage ETF (512000) includes 50 listed brokerage stocks with one click, of which nearly 60% of the positions are concentrated in the top ten leading brokers, and the "big asset management" + "big investment bank" leaders gather; In addition, 40% of the positions take into account the high flexibility of the performance of small and medium-sized brokerages, absorb the characteristics of small and medium-sized securities firms with high outbreak in stages, and is an efficient investment tool that concentrates on the layout of leading securities firms and takes into account small and medium-sized brokers.
Risk warning: Chemical ETF passively tracks the CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, the base date of the index is 2004.12.31, the release date is 2012.4.11; the medical ETF passively tracks the CSI Medical Index, the base date of the index is 2004.12.31, released on 2014.10.31; the brokerage ETF passively tracks the CSI All Index Securities Company Index, the base date of the index is 2007.6.29, released on 2013.7.15. The composition of the constituent stocks of the index is adjusted in due course in accordance with the rules for the preparation of the index, and their backtest historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only an objective display and listing of the constituent stocks of the index, and are not recommended as any individual stocks, and do not represent the investment direction of the fund manager and the Fund. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, reviews, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expressions, etc.) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any investment behavior that they decide independently. In addition, any opinions, analyses and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor are we responsible for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investors should carefully read the fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract, Prospectus, and Fund Product Information Summary, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are compatible with their own risk tolerance. A fund's past performance is not indicative of its future performance! According to the fund manager's assessment, the risk level of chemical ETF, medical ETF and brokerage ETF is R3-medium risk. Sales institutions (including fund managers, direct sales institutions and other sales institutions) conduct risk evaluation of the Fund in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, investors should pay attention to the appropriateness opinions issued by the fund manager in a timely manner, the opinions of the sales institutions on appropriateness are not necessarily consistent, and the risk level evaluation results of fund products issued by fund sales institutions shall not be lower than the risk level evaluation results made by the fund manager. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract differ depending on the factors considered. Investors should understand the risk return of the fund, carefully select fund products based on their own investment objectives, duration, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks. The registration of the Fund by the CSRC does not indicate that it has made a substantive judgment or guarantee on the investment value, market prospects and income of the Fund. Fund investment should be cautious.
This article is derived from financial world information