Private placement results released in the first half of the year: bond strategy leads! A number of tens of billions of private equity performance "counterattack"
China Foundation News reporter Ren Ziqing
With the end of the first half of the market, the first half of the private placement performance has also been released. According to data from the private placement ranking network, as of July 5, 24,283 private securities products with performance records had an overall return of 3% in the first half of the year. In terms of sub-strategies, bond strategies led the performance in the first half of the year, with an average return of 5.04%, multi-asset strategies ranked second with an overall return of 3.21%, followed by equity strategies and fund of funds, and futures and derivatives strategies ranked bottom among the five major strategies in the first half of the year.
In addition, from the performance of tens of billions of private placements in the first half of the year, more than 70% achieved positive returns, of which 11 private placements such as Zhengyuan Investment, Comand Capital, Wangzheng Assets, and Oriental Harbor achieved more than 10% in the first half of the year.
The bond strategy led the performance in the first half of the year by nearly 90%, achieving positive returns
According to data from the private placement ranking network, as of July 5, the overall return of 24,283 private securities products with performance records was 3% in the first half of the year, of which 14,566 products achieved positive returns, accounting for 59.98%.
In terms of sub-strategies, the five major strategies all achieved positive returns in the first half of the year, and the bond strategies led the performance in the first half of the year. According to the data of the private placement ranking network, the overall return of the 1,958 bond products with performance records in the first half of the year was 5.04%, and the proportion of positive return products was 89.43%. With its excellent performance in June, the multi-asset strategy surpassed the equity strategy in the first half of the year, ranking second with an overall return of 3.21%.
The overall performance of equity strategies declined again, with the overall return of 15,472 stock strategy products with performance records in the first half of the year being 3.14%, and positive return products accounting for 55.88%. Although the overall performance of equity strategy products is average, most of the high-yield products mainly come from equity strategies, of the 8645 equity strategy products that achieved positive returns, 47 returned more than 100%, 177 returned between 50-100%, 1037 returned between 20-50%, and 2006 returned between 10-20%.
The fund of funds of funds performed decently, diversifying risks and diversifying returns. The overall return of 1149 fund of funds was 1.71%, and the proportion of positive return products was 69.28%.
In addition, futures and derivatives strategies ranked bottom among the five strategies in the first half of the year, with an overall return of 1.07%. Although the futures and derivatives strategy was at the bottom in the first half of the year, the overall performance of the futures and derivatives strategy has been getting better this year, and since May, the overall income of the futures and derivatives strategy has turned a profit, and the overall return has been further expanded in June.
According to data from the Good Buy Fund Research Center, in the first half of 2023, bond strategies led major strategies with an average yield of 3.91%, market-neutral, multi-strategy and equity strategies all had an average return of more than 2%, and managed futures strategies were at the bottom, with an average return of 0.15% in the first half of the year. The data provided by Chaoyang Sustainability also shows that bond strategies performed best in the first half of this year, followed by hedging arbitrage strategies and market-neutral strategies, while equity strategies performed relatively flat, and commodity futures strategies performed poorly.
Regarding the performance of private equity funds in the first half of the year, Liu Zelong, a researcher at the Good Buy Fund Research Center, said that in the first half of 2023, all major strategies showed a slight increase, showing a certain money-making effect.
Xie Shiqi, an investment researcher at Geshang Fortune Jinzhang, said that in the overall market environment this year, the performance of mainstream private equity funds during the year was between -10% and 20%, and the performance was quite differentiated.
Nearly 80% in half a year, more than 10 billion private equity performance "counterattack"
In the first half of this year, the A-share market showed extreme structural characteristics, and in the rapidly changing market environment, there were still many private equity performances "soaring". Specifically, more than 70 billion private placements achieved positive returns in the first half of the year.
According to data from the private placement ranking network, as of July 3, the overall income of 94 private placements with performance records in the first half of the year was 2.63%, of which 69 achieved positive returns, accounting for 73.40%. Among the 10 billion private placements that achieved positive returns, 24 had returns between 5% and 10%, and 11 private placements, including Zhenyuan Investment, Comand Capital, Wangzheng Assets, and Oriental Harbor, had a return of more than 10% in the first half of the year.
Liu Zelong also said that among the tens of billions of private placements, Oriental Harbor, Wenbo Investment, Comand Capital, Kuande Investment, Innova Assets, Wangzheng Assets and Ruixian Assets performed well overall. "Managers with better performance in the first half of the year have more or less seized the TMT and China Special Valuation market since the beginning of this year, while managers who have temporarily fallen behind have experienced phased pressure on their performance, mainly from the drag of the consumption and new energy sectors."
It is worth mentioning that private equity tycoon Dan Bin achieved a headwind reversal during the year, because of seizing the investment opportunity of the US stock AI concept, many products under Oriental Harbor performed well during the year, and the half-year return of some products was nearly 80%.
"From the perspective of the rise and fall of the theme, the artificial intelligence index, the China Special Valuation Index, and the Information and Innovation Industry Index have risen very obviously, while the pharmaceutical CXO, new energy energy storage, photovoltaic, wind power index and food and beverage liquor index have all fallen by more than 10% this year." If the subjective private placement did not participate in artificial intelligence this year, nor did it participate in the special assessment, the performance would basically fall. The more fundamental-focused private placements are, the worse the performance. For quantitative funds, the underlying logic is to find the direction of short-term stock price fluctuations through price and volume, to find stocks with rising trends to participate, there are some themes in the market this year, quantitative funds are actually easier to participate. Xie Shiqi said.
In the face of market uncertainty, small and medium-sized private equity dark horses have frequently emerged. Judging from the performance of the past three years, the overall income of small and medium-sized private placements is better than that of tens of billions of private placements, especially the performance of private equity managers with management sizes between 5 billion and 1 billion yuan.
According to data from the private placement ranking network, as of the end of June this year, the overall return of 1,973 private equity products of different sizes with performance records in the past three years was 25.11%, of which 1,354 private equity managers achieved positive returns, accounting for 68.98%.
Among them, the equity strategy products of private equity managers with a management scale of 5-1 billion yuan have performed the best in the past three years, with an overall return of 46.97% and a positive return of 81.82%. The equity strategy products of 108 private equity managers with a management scale between 2 billion and 5 billion yuan have also performed well in the past three years, with an overall return of 42.67%. The returns of private equity managers with a scale of 5-10 billion yuan and more than 10 billion yuan in the past three years are not much different, 36.99% and 36.09% respectively. Those private equity managers with a scale of less than 500 million yuan have been at the bottom of the performance in the past three years, with an overall return of 19.97%. The overall return of private equity managers with a scale of between 1 billion and 2 billion yuan in the past three years was 28.49%, the second most performant.
Xie Shiqi analyzed that since 2021, market black swan events have been frequent, and the performance of managers of all sizes has fluctuated greatly. In 2021, the overall medium-sized managers performed well, some of them grasped the transformation and upgrading of China's high-end manufacturing in the new energy field, and the performance was high, and some managers exceeded the scale of tens of billions. However, in 2022, growth managers and tens of billions of managers will begin to pullback, but some small and medium-sized private placements can flexibly adjust investment direction and control positions, which has a certain excess performance relative to the market. By 2023, the market will only have two main lines, artificial intelligence and medium special estimation, and the performance of private placements of various sizes will be more differentiated, and if it does not participate in the above two directions, the performance will basically decline.
"Thanks to the good investment experience in the past two years, quantitative private placement has become a phased hot spot. At present, the overall sales situation is average, the structural characteristics are prominent, the sales of subjective private placements have not shown signs of recovery, and the overall sentiment of investors is still relatively cautious. Liu Zelong said.
Xie Shiqi said frankly that investors' risk appetite is not high at present, and the sales of bonds, insurance and quantitative products will be better than subjective funds. From the perspective of the trading situation of the entire market, the turnover rate is still at the bottom position in nearly ten years, and the sentiment of market participants is relatively low. In addition, from the perspective of risk premium, it is in a relatively high position in history, which means that investors are relatively cautious overall.
More than 60% of the stock private placement achieved positive returns in the first half of the year, reflecting on the investment in the AI sector, optimistic about these directions
China Foundation News reporter Wu Jun
In the first half of this year, the overall performance of active equity private placement was stable, and the average return of equity strategy private placement products in the first half of the year was 2.61%, of which more than 60% were positive. For the layout of the AI (artificial intelligence) sector, some private placements have grasped it, and some private placements have reflected on thematic investment. Some private equity believes that after the market fully explores the AI sector, the market style may change in the second half of the year; However, some private placements are still firmly optimistic about the interpretation of the AI sector in the second half of the year.
In terms of investment strategy, private placement is mainly short-term defense, maintain concentration, reverse layout, and can pay attention to the mid-July market. In the second half of the year, we are optimistic about the direction of previous adjustments such as pharmaceuticals and new energy, as well as AI, high dividends, automobiles and other sectors, and continue to pay attention to the recovery of the consumer sector.
More than 60% of the stock strategy private placement achieved positive returns, and the private placement reflected on investment in the field of AI
Chaoyang Sustainable data shows that the 28,849 equity private equity funds included in the statistics achieved an average return of 2.61% in the first half of the year, of which nearly 63% were funds with positive returns.
Yu Dingheng, chairman and investment director of Yihu Investment, concluded that the income of A-share products in the first half of the year was small, and the performance of US stock accounts was relatively strong. At the end of January, the company captured the industrial trend of artificial intelligence led by AIGC, and made corresponding layouts in A-shares and U.S. stocks in advance, and achieved good returns. However, in the Bank of America turmoil in March, because it was impossible to predict the Fed's rescue of the market, on the basis of the lack of sufficient time and information to make research and judgment, the company had to respond in time, quickly did risk control, and reduced the position of the product. "Some regrets, the varieties that reduced their positions returned strongly, although there were successive increases in positions, but with the concentrated trading of the sector, AI speculation gradually reached a high, and also missed a good layout time, did not enjoy the full benefits of the high position."
Liang Hui, general manager and fund manager of Juju Capital, said that the allocation at the beginning of this year was relatively balanced, one was the layout of consumption related to the post-epidemic recovery, and the other was a growth company with continuous upward improvement in earnings, but the proportion of thematic allocation was not much, so when the market switched rapidly in the first few months, it did not particularly cater to market hot spots. "We reflect that in the current macro environment of weak economic recovery, market valuation is in a relatively low position, in fact, thematic investment can be moderately participated, but overall the allocation will not be particularly high."
However, the reporter found that some private equity have divergent views on investment in the direction of AI in the second half of the year. Zige Investment believes that the economic recovery in the first half of the year was lower than expected, and active equity strategy funds showed an outflow. In this environment, the thematic investment style is more obvious, and the market has fully explored with AI as the main line. Today, there is more mining for thematic investments, and more adjustments to non-thematic sectors, "so we expect that the market style may change in the second half of the year." ”
Yu Dingheng said that in the long run, the direction of AI is more optimistic about domestic computing power companies, especially leading enterprises, which are relatively more likely to deliver performance and have higher investment certainty. However, after short-term crazy hype, the valuation deviation of the entire AI sector is too high, the demand is strong but the supply needs to keep up slowly, and it takes time to cash out the performance, and be wary of valuation traps.
Private equity is optimistic that the equity market will continue to pay attention to economic recovery and interest rate hikes in the second half of the year
Many private placements are optimistic about the equity market in the second half of the year, Liang Hui believes that the current market valuation position is not high, coupled with external risk factors such as US dollar interest rate hikes have formed a market consensus, it is difficult for the index to have a large adjustment, it should be a more structural market. At the same time, opportunities for individual stocks will emerge, and it is necessary to dig deeper into the targets of continuous upward improvement in earnings.
Bamboorun Investment is optimistic about the performance of the equity market in the second half of the year, mainly for two reasons: first, the index has been adjusted for a year and a half, and the valuation of many industries has been relatively low; Second, the decline in risk-free interest rates, including the continuous reduction of bank deposit rates, has further promoted the funds of the whole society to find assets with slightly higher returns and risks than fixed deposits. This was the core driver of the rally in highly valued dividend stocks in the equity market in the first half of the year, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
In the direction of investment, Yu Dingheng said that in the first half of the year, funds revolved around AI and China Special Valuation to open the market, market risk appetite turned to defense, the switch between high and low funds was inevitable, and sectors with excessive gains in the early stage needed to be vigilant. July began to usher in the market of the report, whether it is policy, economic or sentiment, I believe that the inflection point is constantly approaching, and the overall market in the second half of the year remains neutral judgment. "When the performance game is underway, our choice direction in the short and medium term is still to find relative certainty, performance-driven, stable demand can resist the downward cycle of sectors."
Zige Investment said that if the intensity, rhythm and direction of policy efforts change in the second half of the year, new sector opportunities may arise; If the policy does not change much, because the current stock prices of some companies have been fully adjusted, they have also entered the range of both offense and defense. Specifically, recently, pharmaceutical policies have released favorable pricing for innovative drugs, the automotive industry has also launched industry self-discipline restraint behavior in response to price competition, there have been major breakthroughs and substantial progress in power system reform, and new energy has gradually ushered in the era of solar storage parity. These changes were previously overshadowed by the aura of the AI sector, waiting to be discovered and mined by the market.
However, private equity believes that there are some variables in the market that need to be continuously monitored, and Liang Hui believes that the key factor in the second half of the year is the economy's own cycle. Now look at the cycle of the economy itself, look at inventories, and the income and profit growth of industrial enterprises. Revenue and profit growth are currently negative, and inventories are down. "Looking forward to the second half of this year, the economy may still be in a relatively weak environment, we judge that if the market can really rise, at least see that inventories can reach a bottom, or industrial enterprises profit income and other composite indicators have signs of bottoming, so the recovery of the economy may be later in the second half of the year."
Zhurun Investment said that the follow-up may need to pay attention to two variables: one is the marginal change of the US interest rate hike policy, the probability of raising interest rates in July is relatively large, the key depends on the situation of the interest rate hike in September, once the marginal US interest rate hike policy turns, the suppression factors of overseas markets on A-shares will also be eliminated; The second is the progress and intensity of the introduction of mainland economic support policies, and at the same time pay attention to the economic data, once the economic data stabilizes and enters an expansion cycle, pro-cyclical related industries will perform.
Yu Dingheng reminded that Powell released a signal at the end of June that this year or two consecutive interest rate hikes, the Fed's interest rate hike will have a strong disturbance to global capital flows, especially emerging markets.
Short-term defense is the mainstay, focusing on the layout of the Chinese newspaper market, AI is also optimistic about medicine, new energy, etc
"The current configuration is defensive, mainly choosing to focus on domestic demand, which can counter the downward trend of the cycle, and the demand determines the sub-industry without speculation." At present, maintain a neutral position, short-term defense is the mainstay, maintain concentration, reverse layout. Yu Dingheng said.
Liang Hui said that in the face of an uncertain market environment, investment mainly follows two ideas: on the one hand, looking for opportunities in segments with good fundamentals; On the other hand, grasp the opportunities brought by the market itself and participate in some thematic investments, "The theme I understand is the trend of relatively clear long-term prospects, but the current value of individual stocks is not clear, and a large long-term space can be estimated when investing." Of course, there will be some uncertainties in the middle, such as market competition, industrial chain location, development speed, etc., and we will choose the optimal configuration in the industry that can be seen more clearly. ”
Zhurun Investment said that the current position structure is mainly urban investment bonds and agreement repurchase, and will continue to pay attention to equity assets and some oversold real estate bond assets. Specifically, in equity investment, on the basis of controlling valuation, to find industries and sectors with relatively high prosperity, the holding period is relatively long, and will not blindly chase hot spots.
Regarding the investment direction in the second half of the year, Yu Dingheng said that focusing on the four major themes of population aging, emerging consumption, domestic substitution and climate, corresponding to the four major industries of medicine and health care, consumption (Generation Z), science and technology, and advanced manufacturing, looking for industry leaders with core competitiveness and truly creating shareholder value. For example, in terms of medicine, focus on innovative drugs, preferably subdivision leaders with international capabilities, and it is best to have multiple innovative drugs enter the commercialization stage; Optimistic about blood products with resource attributes, stable growth in annual performance, and industry mergers and reorganizations; However, the short-term confidence and consumption power boost in the consumer sector lacks effective catalysis, and market sentiment continues to be weak and still on the left side of the fundamentals.
Zhurun Investment said that equity positions are roughly in several directions: first, high dividend targets with relatively weak cyclicality, such as highway toll booths and railway transportation, of which the logistics industry benefits from liberalization, and the overall performance this year will be better than last year; Second, the high-prosperity sub-sectors in consumption, such as air conditioning, are resonated by multiple factors such as this year's El Niño, air conditioning user-side update cycle, channel-side inventory cycle, etc., and terminal sales data continue to be prosperous; Third, vehicle and parts companies in the high growth of Belt and Road exports, China's high-end manufacturing exports have performed well this year. In addition, the follow-up will focus on individual stocks in the food and beverage sector that are at historically low valuations under the background of economic recovery, as well as related sub-industries that return to offline scenes, such as scenic spots, offline retail formats, restaurant chains, movie ticketing, etc.
Zige Investment admits that it pursues a dynamic balance of security, certainty and resilience in terms of investment. With the adjustment of the chip structure, some high-performing stocks that were troubled by the outflow of institutional funds in the early stage once again have a better balance and value for money. These stocks are mainly concentrated in the new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors. "We focus on the opportunities of independent controllability, solar storage parity and power system reform, the performance of the consumer sector abandoned by the market in the third quarter, and the companies in the AI sector that are rising with certainty."
Quantitative private placements performed well
The policy "involution" requires continuous iteration
China Foundation News reporter Jiang You
In the first half of the year, the market was volatile, and the quantitative private placement strategy "talent" still maintained good positive returns overall. Market-neutral arbitrage strategies have positive returns of more than 3%, and tens of billions of quantitative private placement products have excess returns of more than 20%. Quantitative private equity interviewed said that the market hot spots switched quickly in the first half of the year, which was actually not conducive to quantitative play, but through the iterative evolution of strategy, the overall still achieved good returns, and the industry competition will become more and more fierce in the future.
Quantitative private placement performed well in the first half of the year
According to a number of third-party data, the quantitative private placement of neutral and arbitrage strategies in the first half of this year was significantly better than the private placement of stock long strategies, with less than 3% return. According to data from the Good Buy Fund Research Center, the performance of market-neutral and arbitrage-based private placements in the first half of the year was 3.67% and 3.45%, respectively, which are theoretically private placements with very low risk exposure. The data of Chaoyang Sustainability shows that the performance of market-neutral and arbitrage strategies is 3.01% and 3.33% respectively. Among the tens of billions of private placements that performed well in the first half of the year, many quantitative private placements such as Wenbo, Kuande, Innova, and Jin Techni ranked among them, and quantitative private placements occupied a relatively important position.
Zou Yitian, founder of quantitative private equity Blackwing Assets, told China Fund News that this year's market is structurally strong, hot spots switch quickly, and only a few sectors rose in most of the time, such as new energy tickets in January this year, China Special Valuation and AI in March. From the current market situation, it is expected that the future will still be a relatively differentiated structural market. From the perspective of the whole quantitative private placement industry, in the first half of the year, the quantitative strategies, especially the quantitative index increase strategy, became more difficult to obtain excess quotas, and the performance of the CSI 500 index increase was more obvious, but the overall performance of quantitative private placement was relatively stable, and the performance variance between different managers was relatively limited.
Kuande Investment told the reporter of China Fund News that the company's stock excess performance in the first half of the year was more eye-catching, representing that the excess return of the product since the beginning of this year is very obvious, ranking in the forefront of similar managers. Since the beginning of this year, the market has been more active and enthusiastic, and the turnover has frequently exceeded trillions, which is conducive to the profit of stock strategy trading. A 10 billion quantitative private placement in Beijing also said that the excess of the 500 index increase since the beginning of this year has reached about 11%.
Wenbo Investment also told the China Fund News reporter that the company's overall performance in the first half of the year continued the momentum of last year and still maintained the top position in the industry. The excess of 300 and 1000 indexes is obvious, the absolute return of quantitative stock selection for half a year is very high, and the return of neutral strategies is also good. At present, the company's partial price strategy is used in the whole product line, and the model and signal are basically consistent, but different product lines have differences in optimization goals and constraints, and in the context of management scale of more than 20 billion, a good balance between scale and income has been found, and I believe that it can continue to create value for investors.
Quantitative private placements also continue to grow. Rong Hao, wealth management partner of Private Placement, told China Fund News that in terms of quantity, the latest 10 billion private placements this year increased by 2 to 114, of which 31 were quantitative private placements, an increase of 3 over last year, which shows that quantitative private placements continue to "open up territory"; In terms of performance, the quantitative collective performance is stable, most of them have achieved positive returns, bond strategies have also performed well, and subjective bulls have diverged.
Rong Hao said that due to the impact of the recovery not meeting expectations and domestic and foreign policies, this year's bond strategy has come out of the bull market of expected reversal; Quantification is to continue to enjoy the dividends of scale and the good experience brought by relatively small fluctuations; Subjectively, there was a great divergence in the environment of extreme plate style in the first half of the year.
The future will need to polish the details of the strategy
Although the performance in the first half of the year was good, quantitative private placement is also constantly "involving". The above-mentioned Beijing 10 billion quantitative private placement said that at this stage, institutions need to continue to cultivate internal strength, polish details, and grasp innovative development opportunities. Under the premise of risk control, top talents with multidisciplinary backgrounds are encouraged to explore cutting-edge topics and continue to maintain technological iteration.
Zou Yitian also said that this year's market structure is strong, hot spots switch fast, sector rotation is obvious, this market style is not conducive to the play of quantitative index strategy, compared with the whole market quantitative stock selection this year has certain advantages. In order to better adapt to changes in the market environment, the company has made iterations in terms of strategic configuration, mining methods, AI technology applications, and product lines.
Wenbo Investment said that the adaptability and effectiveness of factors to the market is the basis for obtaining continuous excess, the company responds to the changing market by enriching data sources and reserves different types of factors, and at the same time, in terms of factor storage standards, the company pays special attention to investment logic, and its weight reaches 50%. In addition, the company has also done detailed work including mining new alternative data, deepening the application of timing factors, increasing computing power investment to expand signal frequency bands, etc., while exploring new derivatives composite strategies, and using a variety of derivatives tools to respond to market changes and style switching.
Kuande Investment also said that to ensure the sustainability of the excess, it is necessary to insist on investment research ahead of failure. After the dividend period of single strategy and methodology has passed, the future is to grasp the details, and it is necessary to continue to increase the weight from technology, talent, management and other aspects to further enhance competitiveness.
However, under the volatility of subjective private placements, investors still prefer quantitative private placements. Rong Hao said that from the new product filing data and industry seller feedback, sales have begun to show signs of recovery. Most customers with moderate risk appetite tend to choose quantification, while some large funds or institutional customers will also choose to adapt to bonds, arbitrage neutrality, etc. Subjective sales have also picked up, and customers are more considerate of manager selection.
Editor: Xiao Mo
Review: Xu Wen