McKinsey Global Institute said in a report on employment forecasts that with the advancement of science and technology, 800 million people around the world will be affected by artificial intelligence, of which 375 million will face re-employment, and China accounts for 100 million people.
Chart: Affected populations in China and the United States and other countries, Source: McKinsey Employment Report
From left to right, the figure above is: the United States, other developed countries, China and other developing countries. The light blue square indicates that in the case of rapid development of artificial intelligence, 54 million, 64 million, 100 million and 72 million people in the four categories of countries will need to re-enter the workforce and learn new skills. The dark blue square indicates that in the case of relatively moderate development of artificial intelligence, 16 million, 17 million, 12 million and 10 million people in various countries will need to be re-employed.
If you want to reap the benefits of AI, you must go through the suffering of AI. The China Development Research Foundation, Sequoia Capital China, Microsoft, IBM, Alibaba, Tsinghua University, Renmin University and others jointly released the report "Investing in Human Capital and Embracing Artificial Intelligence: Challenges and Responses to China's Future Jobs". The report concludes: 70% of China's occupations will be impacted by artificial intelligence, the "machine substitution" movement has risen in the manufacturing industry, AI will reshape the human industrial structure - the proportion of AI in tertiary industry service work will be further increased, and the top priority for professionals is re-education.
The report analyzes the nature of the work and concludes that the completion of each job requires five broad categories of competencies: perceptual, social and emotional, cognitive, natural language processing and physical physical functions, and one or more of the 18 professional competencies. Less than 5 percent of all human jobs can be fully automated, but 30 to 60 percent of nearly 20 jobs can be completely replaced by artificial intelligence or robots. Among the jobs most vulnerable to automation are manual work in highly stable and predictable environments, as well as mental work such as data collection and processing.
Figure: Automation potential in selected occupations, Source: McKinsey Global Institute
The speed and scale of the impact of artificial intelligence on employment are closely related to the industry and its job characteristics, we take retail services, financial services, education services, transportation and logistics, and manufacturing as examples:
- Retail services
Alibaba Research Institute took Alibaba platforms (Tmall, Taobao merchants) as the research object, and used merchant research data and merchant focus interviews to carry out the first large-scale empirical analysis research in China. Through the use of artificial intelligence tools to measure e-commerce employment, personnel income, business performance and other indicators, the impact of artificial intelligence use on personnel with different positions and different technical levels is analyzed for the application of three typical artificial intelligence products in the e-commerce industry (intelligent customer service, intelligent store design, and intelligent data analysis tools). In the case of the continuous growth of merchants' business, the use of intelligent tools has an impact on about 1.8 million jobs (including customer service positions, store design, and data analysis positions), of which 1.7 million jobs have benefited from the use of intelligent tools, and 96,000 jobs have the possibility of replacement.
- Financial services
Based on a value chain analysis of the three major industries of financial services, banking, insurance, and capital markets, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) studies the potential impact of AI technology applications on occupational and functional activities in the three industries, and then measures the impact on the overall financial industry job market. BCG believes that AI technologies will transform the business world in three ways: automated, intelligent, and creative: driving new levels of automation, supporting intelligent analysis and decision-making, enabling new business models and industries, and creating jobs in the financial job market. The BCG team interviewed experts in the financial services industry and artificial intelligence, referenced and optimized industry-recognized analytical frameworks and methodologies, and developed BCG 2027 models for the impact of artificial intelligence on the financial industry job market. According to model calculations, by 2027, China's financial industry can employ 9.93 million people, of which about 23% of jobs will be disrupted by artificial intelligence, mainly including jobs engaged in standardized and repetitive work.
- Educational services
In the field of education services, artificial intelligence technology cannot completely replace the role of teachers. Because teachers not only need to impart knowledge, but also need to shape the quality of students through emotional communication and thought guidance. But in the future, AI could significantly reduce the need for teachers. AI can unleash teacher productivity to collaborate with teachers as an intelligent assistant to undertake repeatable, programmatic and memory-dependent teaching tasks. Teachers will focus on the cultivation of emotional interaction, personalized guidance and innovative thinking to continuously improve teaching efficiency. Internet technology allows teachers to teach multiple classes at the same time through live streaming. Artificial intelligence technology can help optimize the customized teaching between teachers and students in online education and improve the learning effect. This will promote the popularization of online education and reduce the need for regular teachers. At the same time, AI can significantly increase the number of students covered by excellent teachers at the same time, reducing the demand for ordinary teachers. This will have a profound impact on the organizational structure and operating model of the education industry.
- Transportation and logistics industry
According to the statistical survey of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the number of logistics employees in the mainland is 50.12 million, accounting for 6.5% of the national employment. At the same time, the mainland's labor force has been declining for many years, and it is difficult for the logistics industry with regular manual labor such as sorting and distribution to attract enough workers. In order to improve labor efficiency and solve the problem of recruitment difficulties, the logistics industry has upgraded from the traditional model to intelligent logistics. Whether it is Ali, Jingdong or Pinduoduo and other e-commerce platforms, most of them have realized the whole process of warehousing, storage, packaging, sorting and the whole system is intelligent and unmanned, which can reduce labor by 50%~70%, the picking efficiency of small goods exceeds 5 times that of labor, and the selection accuracy rate exceeds 99.9%.
According to the Ministry of Transport, the total number of employees in the transportation industry is about 40 million, including 17.28 million freight workers, 5.41 million ride-hailing drivers and 2.6 million taxi drivers nationwide. These people may all be affected by autonomous driving technology. Major ride-hailing platforms are already competing in the field of autonomous driving: In March 2023, Cao Cao Mobility released its customized car brand "Cao Cao Auto" and its autonomous driving strategy, and also reached a strategic cooperation with Geely Automobile to build an intelligent driving platform. In April 2023, Didi, the head player of ride-hailing, also brought the first future service concept car based on driverless driving, DiDi Neuron; Cui Dayong, CEO of T3 Mobility, judged at the beginning of the company's establishment that 2027 will be an inflection point for China to enter the development of autonomous driving.
- manufacturing
According to China's employment and population data, China's current secondary industry employs about 210 million people, accounting for 26% of the country's total employment. The secondary industry is mainly manufacturing and construction, of which manufacturing accounts for more than 70%, that is, more than 147 million people are employed. According to the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), predictable manual labor, such as assembly line operations, is particularly vulnerable to automation. Automation will eliminate one-fifth of China's manufacturing jobs by 2030.
and the catering industry, which employs a large number of people, with a total employment of nearly 30 million. With 50% of waiters, about 15 million people may be affected by automated ordering robots and takeaway businesses. Other essential workers in various industries, such as designers, planners, analysts, clerks, assistants, etc., are also greatly affected by artificial intelligence.
Figure: Schematic diagram of intelligent robots replacing industrial workers
According to rough estimates, the main job population in China that may be affected by artificial intelligence, automation and intelligent robots and face greater risk of unemployment is about 1~200 million.
This number does not include the potential for more impact on knowledge jobs as technical capabilities continue to improve. This time, the surging AIGC application tools, led by ChatGPT, will likely have a more profound impact on the job market. In any case, the advent of the era of artificial intelligence, the impact on society is huge, this wave swept in, came so quickly, are we fully prepared?