This week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen officially arrived in Beijing. But she was greeted without flowers or a red carpet, only a "red line" sign at the airport that guides her route. Some netizens ridiculed that this proves that China's mentality has changed when dealing with the United States, and before the United States learns to respect China's "red line", senior officials of the Biden administration do not want to unilaterally enjoy China's concessions and preferential treatment as before.
And so it is. By the time Yellen arrived in Beijing, the Chinese high-level had already left Beijing for an inspection in the Eastern Theater. In his speech during the inspection, the four words "preparing for war" were once again put out by China and shown to the whole world. In addition, just days before Yellen's visit to China, China announced that it would formally take measures to control the export of rare metals.
China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs issued an announcement to implement export controls on two key metals, gallium and germanium, from August 1, 2023. The outside world generally believes that this is in response to the increasing "science and technology war" against China by the United States. These movements of the Chinese side prove that after several years of running-in, the attitude of China and the United States in dealing with each other is indeed different. To sum up, it is to return the other way and the other body.
At the beginning of Biden's presidency, many people at that time were looking forward to the warming of Sino-US relations. After all, if the two great powers of China and the United States continue to face Mai Mang, it will not be a good thing for the two countries themselves and the world. As a politician labeled as an "establishment", Biden should be more rational than Trump, who started as a populist, and know how to abide by basic international rules and diplomatic etiquette when dealing with China.
However, the interaction between China and the United States in recent years has proved that China still thinks too well about the current United States. Unlike Trump, who engages in indiscriminate attacks, Biden says one thing and does another. Not only do they not want to correct the wrong line of the Trump era, but they also want to put what Trump screwed up on the table and use it as a bargaining chip to put pressure on China.
It is natural for the United States to unilaterally undermine the benign interaction between China and the United States and assume the responsibility of repairing relations. However, Biden obviously does not think so, always thinking that China will take the initiative to make concessions and repair relations. In recent years, when dealing with China, senior officials of the Biden administration have never taken the initiative to assume the responsibility of creating a good atmosphere of dialogue, and each time they must first create cards to exert pressure, and then dialogue with China. Sometimes, in order to make cards, they even directly "collapsed" themselves.
Biden
Among them, the most typical negative textbook is Blinken. At the beginning of this year, because of the hype of "stray balloons", internal public opinion was out of control, and his original plan to visit China was also lost, and it was only in June this year that the trip was difficult to achieve. China is willing to establish channels of communication with the United States, but it will not tolerate the United States playing the same tactics over and over again. Since the United States has played its cards indiscriminately, then China is now going to play a dozen of its cards.
Yellen's visit to China is a good opportunity for China to counter the United States. The reason why I say this is because in this matter, on the one hand, the United States is not decent first, first showed its fist to scare people, and China knocked and knocked, so it is reasonable to find fault; On the other hand, now that the United States is asking for China, playing cards at this time can make the smallest chips play the greatest effect and help China quickly seize the initiative.
It is said that the United States is not decent because Yellen's visit to China shouted that she should communicate and dialogue with China well, but in fact, she is still playing the old routine of first pressure and then negotiation. After arriving in China, Yellen met with senior Chinese officials and members of the U.S. business community. China's Ministry of Finance pointed out that the essence of Sino-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win, and there are no winners in trade wars and "decoupling and breaking chains". It is hoped that the US side will take concrete actions to create a good environment for the healthy development of economic and trade relations between the two countries and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.
Yellen
However, during her meeting with the U.S. business community, Yellen emphasized her commitment to China not to seek full separation and decoupling of the Sino-US economy, but at the same time released harsh words, the United States is strongly concerned about China's "punitive" behavior against US companies, especially the control of gallium and germanium exports, and warned that it will unite allies to fight back.
In the week before Yellen confirmed her visit to China, the United States did a total of three things. The first is to force the Netherlands to implement new measures to further tighten export restrictions on chip equipment to China. Secondly, it is to release the wind, saying that Biden has been blowing the wind for half a year, and the investment restriction order for Chinese high-tech enterprises may be implemented in the near future, and the draft is already being prepared.
Finally, through "insiders" revealed to the media that Biden is "considering" further reducing the scope of chip sales of US semiconductor companies to China on the basis of announcing comprehensive restrictions on semiconductor technology exports to China last year. These three things are obviously a set of combos. According to the US script, in July, the Netherlands and Japan should announce stricter semiconductor export bans, followed by the United States, restricting investment and announcing a new round of control measures.
Gallium and germanium
This set of "combined fists" is estimated to set off a new climax of the Sino-US "science and technology war". Obviously, Biden is now holding the fist of "technology war", following Yellen, telling China, if you are not willing to reach a compromise with Yellen, bleeding to buy long-term Treasury bonds that the US Treasury is about to sell, and help the Fed tide over the difficulties, then I will "hit hard" your high-tech industry.
Under such circumstances, China does not give the United States a good look, and even raises its fist, which is bigger than the fist of the United States, which is completely courteous. It is said that China can take the initiative because, whether it is on the US debt issue that Yellen is concerned about, or the "trade war" issue that she is holding as a bargaining chip, as long as China is determined to punch, the fist is really bigger than the United States.
Needless to say, U.S. debt. In this matter, it is entirely the United States that demands from China. At present, the United States issues short-term treasury bonds, which move the money of reverse repurchase in the market, and produce and sell it itself. Once long-term government bonds are issued, if large overseas buyers like China do not make a move, they will most likely pay for it from bank reserves.
U.S. Debt
At that time, at the beginning of this year, the bank "serial explosion", Wall Street everyone is in danger, the scene will most likely repeat a round. At this point, global confidence in the U.S. economy may hit rock bottom. Biden's election situation is estimated to be "discounted". As for the "tech war", the same is true. In the current deep globalization of the industrial chain, the United States and China have never had a one-way stuck neck between one party and the other.
The United States was able to unilaterally flaunt its might before, but it was only the result of China's repeated tolerance. The United States stuck China's neck from the technical end, and China can jam the American neck from the raw material side. A spokesman for the U.S. Department of Defense acknowledged that the U.S. has a strategic reserve of germanium, but does not currently have a stockpile of gallium. Not only that, the Western media are now highly concerned about whether China will play the "rare earth card" next.
Of course, it is still that sentence, the neck is actually a matter that harms others and does not benefit itself, this is the case for the United States, and it is also true for China, so China has been unwilling to play cards like this before. Now China has made a move, on the one hand, the United States has gone too far, and it is impossible to endure it and no longer need to endure it; on the other hand, it may be that China's "backup plan" has been almost prepared.
Zhongsha
Those who follow the technology industry should be able to notice the news that a few days before Yellen's visit to China, Saudi officials announced in Hong Kong that they would strengthen cooperation with China in the high-tech field. Note that this is talking about cooperation, not China's unilateral export of technology. This matter, together with the rumors that Saudi Arabia will join the BRICS in the second half of this year, and the BRICS will establish a settlement model independent of the SWIFT system and cannot be tracked by the United States, is very intriguing.
For example, Saudi Arabia, which wants to "revitalize" the semiconductor industry, imports some high-end equipment from European and American manufacturers, and then this equipment enters the "second-hand market", and the buying and selling process is realized through the BRICS internal trading system, which the United States cannot track. Will such a turnaround become a possibility?
The United States has been encircling and blocking China's high-tech industry for nearly 10 years. In other words, China has spent at least a decade ahead of time in order to formulate a response plan. Now that the cards are played, it is the turn of the United States to panic. Of course, showing each other's fists is not China's intention. China's card to deal with the United States this time is actually a "war to stop the war", before the good discussion and the United States did not understand, then it can only be slapped to see if there is a reaction.
Central America
Now, on the US side, calls for adjusting the course towards China are becoming more and more numerous. The South China Morning Post described business people within the United States, as well as European partners, as the "weak link" in the United States' pressure on China. European politicians, business circles, and the U.S. business community are joining forces to lobby the U.S. government to reduce pressure on China.
Compared with increasing pressure and releasing signals of détente, China can feel the sincerity of the US negotiations. Biden is not without cards that can be used to ease relations with China. For example, since the end of May, the Biden administration has begun to re-examine the Trump-era tariff policy on China to determine whether it should be partially or completely eliminated.
China also mentioned earlier that the call for the cancellation of the 301 tariff by name is actually sending a signal to test it. If Biden can correct his mentality and do more things that are of positive significance to easing Sino-US relations, China is likely to be willing to return the favor. Now, it depends on whether Biden has the courage to take this step.