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ESPN analyst: The impact of the Bradley Beal trade on the Suns!

author:Lazy people cut with the cut

Before the NBA draft, the Phoenix Suns made their first major trade in the NBA offseason, trading Chris Paul, Landry Charmett and future second-round picks/swaps for Bradley Beal.

The deal was mostly for salary dumping for the Wizards. While there are doubts about whether Paul's salary will continue to be guaranteed, it's almost impossible to predict where Paul, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma will play without knowing where the Wizards will be playing next season!

Meanwhile, the Suns have overhauled their team over the past six months. Matt Ishbia became owner of Phoenix in February and made his first major deal, trading McKar Bridges and Cam Johnson for Kevin Durant. After failing to reach the Western Conference Finals, the Suns fired Monty Williams and replaced him with Frank Vogel. Now, the Phoenix has four of the highest level players, including Durant, Devin Booker, Beal and Deandre Ayton, and potentially fills the roster with low-cost role players.

That being said, I still feel like the Phoenix haven't stopped on trades. The NBA's new CBA will make it difficult for teams to build superteams, and the Suns will almost certainly trigger a punitive clause known as the "Second Apron" that will make it difficult for them to sign free agents or trade for future draft picks. The Suns' problems last playoff were partly due to the team's over-reliance on core players and weaknesses in other positions, and the trade made things worse for them.

Booker could take on the role of point guard. He has enjoyed great success with the ball over the past two seasons and has excelled in the playoffs, averaging 33.7 points (58.5 percent shooting) and 7.2 assists per game, with a career-low 2.9 turnovers. Booker and Durant have shown excellent synergy on the court, often scoring more than 30 points with Booker as the primary ball handler. That left Paul, one of the NBA's best playmakers, forced to play the role of an off-the-ball shooter that didn't fit his technical profile.

Bale plays well here, as a scoring threat who can create his own shots off the ball. He was able to score efficiently. As Kevin Pelton points out, last season, Bell shot 52 percent from the field before holding the ball for at least two seconds (e.g., an estimate of self-created chances), while on shots with less than two seconds of possession, his effective shooting percentage improved to 61 percent. As the Wizards' primary scoring option, Bale has averaged 25.5 points per game over the past seven seasons (shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from three-point range), and he has never averaged less than 22.6 points per game during that time. He will be the third option for the Phoenix team, which means his shots will be reduced and his score may drop to 20 points low or even a dozen points higher. His efficiency should skyrocket, which may be enough for him to keep scoring more than 20 points per game. After averaging 5.5 assists per game over the past five seasons, Bale may be regressing as a distributor.

Durant has paired up with two heavy scoring players almost throughout his career, from his teamwork with Russell Westbrook and James Harden during his time at OKC, to his championship journey with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson with the Golden State Warriors, to his time with Kyrie Irving and Harden during his time in Brooklyn. Durant is one of the most efficient scorers in NBA history and should maintain that level next season. Compared to what he has seen with the Nets in past few seasons, his shots may be limited, as injuries and absences have made Durant a major scorer without at least one superstar teammate. Therefore, Durant's stats with the Warriors may be somewhat predictive of his performance next season. In three seasons from 2016-17 to 2018-19, Durant averaged 25.8 points (52.4 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from three-point range) and 5.4 assists. His scoring efficiency has also improved, shooting a staggering 50-40-90 from the field last season, or 56.0 percent from the field, 40.4 percent from three-point range and 91.9 percent from the free-throw line. Partnering with Booker and Bell should help him reach or even exceed these amazing levels of efficiency.

Ayton's shooting has dropped significantly since Durant joins the team, averaging 18.7 points on 13.8 shots in 53 games prior to last season, compared with 12.5 points on 9.9 shots in the eight regular-season games he played with Durant and 13.4 points on 11.1 shots in the playoffs. Ayton is not a dominant defensive/rebounding player at the center position, so he almost has to be a scorer to make an impact. It's hard to imagine that Bale would have been able to get more shots after joining the team, or even the same number of shots as before.

It's hard to gauge the Suns' prospects this season without knowing their future moves. Analysts have mixed opinions, from Kendrick Perkins' claim that the Suns are the best team in the NBA to Kevin Pelton's estimate that they may struggle to make the playoffs. I understand Pelton's concerns because the Suns' three best players all have a record of missing a lot of games due to injury, and the team lacks enough depth to deal with that. While Phoenix has one of the most threatening shooters/scorers in the league, they still lack the team defense, rebounding, and athletic skills necessary to compete at the highest level. If they don't make other adjustments, I expect they're a team that wins about 50 games and might compete for playoff home court advantage, but I wouldn't see them as favorites to win the championship.

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