Under the background of unprecedented changes in a century, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, strategic emerging industries have become the focus of international competition and the direction of industrial development.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to "adhere to the core position of innovation in the overall situation of mainland modernization", pointing out that it is necessary to promote the development of strategic emerging industry integration clusters.
Focusing on 11 emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, big data, industrial Internet, robots, integrated circuits, intelligent networked vehicles, new displays, innovative drugs, energy storage, photovoltaics, hydrogen energy, etc., the consultant conducted systematic and scientific analysis, based on multiple dimensions such as technological change, market demand and policy promotion, evaluated the development potential and competitive pattern of these industries, judged their future growth space and risk points, and revealed their life cycle changes and transformation opportunities, so as to predict the development direction and challenges of these emerging industries in 2023.
Artificial intelligence: The general big model opens the first year of "AI for all"
Qianqian consultants believe that in 2023, the landmark ChatGPT general artificial intelligence will promote the "leopard transformation" of China's AI large model to general, thus opening the first year of "AI for all". The application of artificial intelligence will be upgraded from the handicraft workshop stage to the industrial era, forming a new development momentum for the industry.
In the past decade, the application of artificial intelligence in specific fields such as smart security has entered a mature period, but problems such as difficulty in AI landing and serious fragmentation have led to high costs, high thresholds and high losses for AI commercialization, and as of October 2022, 30% of mainland AI listed companies have experienced business losses and 45% have experienced revenue declines.
In the first half of 2022, the security-based SenseTime smart business and smart city businesses fell by 12% and 45% year-on-year, and Hikvision's net profit fell by 11.14% year-on-year, showing the first decline since 2010, and industry-specific dividends are disappearing.
In the next decade, artificial intelligence will develop towards large-scale applications. Qianqian consultants believe that 2023, as a key year for the direction change, the cognitive intelligence hard core technology with AI large models as the core is expected to make major breakthroughs, promote the upgrading of model research and development from the manual workshop stage to the industrial era, and will promote large-scale mass production, standardized output, and low-cost replication of AI applications, forming a new development momentum for the industry.
Huge capital injection, computing power improvement, and application expansion have accelerated the maturity of AI large models.
The first is to inject huge funds into betting on AI large models. In China, the Shenzhen Municipal Government allocated 4.2 billion yuan to build a parallel training platform for ultra-large-scale AI models "Pengcheng Cloud Brain II". SenseTime invested CNY 5.6 billion to build its own artificial intelligence computing center to complete trillion-parameter model training. Abroad, in January 2023, Microsoft plans to acquire OpenAI shares for $10 billion to deepen AI big model and supercomputing research and cooperation.
The second is to improve computing power and break the bottleneck of the development of AI large models. In the past few years, the lack of computing power has been a major bottleneck restricting the development of large AI models in the mainland, and at the end of 2022, AI chips will promote the improvement of computing power to make a qualitative leap, with the breakthrough of 4nm 3D stacked chip packaging technology and the mass production of RISC-V chips as the traction, Huawei HiSilicon, Unigroup Zhanrui, Pingtou Ge, Cambrian and other enterprises AI chips broke the blockade of advanced processes in the United States, and helped the large-scale deployment of AI large models with quantitative transformation and qualitative changes.
The third is the application of AI large models out of the circle. Relying on natural language processing, computer vision, cross-modal and other fields, the large model provides strong support for artificial intelligence-generated content (AIGC) such as chatbot ChatGPT and AI painting, promotes AIGC technology innovation, expands its application boundaries in media, e-commerce, film and television, entertainment and other fields, and continues to accelerate the landing of commercial scenarios.
In 2023, the AI big model will drive the development of the AI industry to accelerate in an all-round way.
The first is to promote the large-scale commercial use of AI applications. Through the paradigm of "pre-trained large model + downstream task fine-tuning", the threshold and cost of AI development are reduced, and the large-scale commercial use of AI is accelerated in general scenarios such as identification, classification, and detection, as well as in industry scenarios such as telecommunications, banking, and education. At the same time, the AI big model will effectively solve the AI landing problems such as demand diversification and scenario fragmentation, efficiently meet the application needs of different industries and enterprises to achieve large-scale and industrialization, and accelerate the realization of business value of AI applications.
The second is to accelerate the development of AI super computing power. It is estimated that the number of pre-trained model parameters and the scale of training data will increase according to the trend of 300 times / year, and the supercomputing power as the key support of AI large models will also be vigorously developed, which will have great benefits for the development of AI chips, AI computing power networks, super intelligent computing power platforms and other computing infrastructure-related enterprises.
The third is to help accelerate the improvement of the AI general basic model. AI big model will accelerate the evolution of artificial intelligence to a general basic model, in which deep learning and reinforcement learning promote each other's development, integrate a large amount of industry knowledge, continuously improve the ability to adapt to changes in the market environment, and develop to a unified, cross-scenario, multi-task, and large-parameter multi-modal basic model.
Big Data: Plug in the "data value" rocket and take off
The consultant before the rain believes that based on the issuance of the mainland's first special policy document on the release of the value of data elements from the high level of production factors, in 2023, data elements will usher in the era of industrialization, and promote the development of productivity with the comprehensive release of the three values of business integration, digital intelligence decision-making, and circulation empowerment, and realize value multiplication driven by data "new capital".
Since the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China added data as a new production factor, the development of the mainland data field has continuously reached a new level, the market entities and environment related to data elements have been continuously improved, and the quality of factors has been greatly improved, but many basic and key problems restricting the market-oriented allocation of data elements still need to be solved.
On the one hand, the data resource process still faces problems such as insufficient available data, low data quality, and weak application capabilities. The scale of the mainland open data set is only about 11% of that of the United States, and only 7% of the production and operation data of enterprises comes from the government. The scale of dirty data and fake data is large, and nearly 85% of the data integrity in the current government data platform is not high. Enterprise data application capabilities are low, and it is difficult to complete the whole chain task from data collection to scenario application.
On the other hand, the exploration of data assetization is subject to factors such as data ownership system, pricing system, and distribution system. At present, there is still great controversy in the definition of data ownership, which is a worldwide problem involving the whole body; Lack of data price formation mechanism and insufficient initiative of data market transactions affect the existence of problems affecting data circulation transactions. At present, the data distribution mechanism is difficult to meet the basic allocation principles and requirements of the participation of elements according to contribution.
The consultant before the rain believes that 2023, as the year of transformation of data elements from understanding and advocacy to institutional innovation, data elements will usher in the era of industrialization - based on unique policy design, the basic system will be used to solve the basic problems in the release of the value of data elements, which will open up new space for economic growth for data "new capital".
The state attaches great importance to the development of the data element market, and at the same time, the perfect digital infrastructure and rich application scenarios provide fertile soil for the data economy.
First, the national special policy is to "raise the flag and orient" the development of the data element industry. The "Data Twenty Articles" not only conforms to the objective law that after the development of economic and social digitalization to a deep level, it urgently requires seeking new momentum for development from the source of value of production factors, and is also a policy response to the current pain point of all sectors of society suffering from not solving the basic problems of data and unable to fully develop the value of massive data, so it is of milestone significance in the process of releasing the value of data elements.
Second, breakthroughs in key technologies promote the marketization of data elements. In terms of data security circulation technology, the national standard for privacy computing interconnection has made a major breakthrough in 2022, and has entered the stage of best practice and further deepening, and it is expected to achieve real growth in privacy computing ecological power and data value network effect in 2023 to break the "computing island". In terms of data management technology, new technologies such as data weaving and data mesh have obtained the "market" pass, which can effectively break the problem of "data islands", such as IBM, Denodo, Talend, Stardog, Vertex Software and other manufacturers' data weaving solutions have achieved multi-industry commercialization, and the winning projects have reached tens of millions. In 2023, it is expected to promote the transformation of the data management system from "point breakthrough" to "network breakthrough", providing a stronger technical foundation for the release of the value of data elements. In terms of data analysis application technology, the embedded integration of AI technologies such as machine learning and deep learning has greatly reduced the application threshold of data analysis technology on the business side, and data product innovation and data service research based on AI technology will empower the innovation and development of the data element market in 2023.
Third, the data element market supply and demand docking has expanded to multiple industries. At present, the entities participating in the data element market are relatively concentrated. From the supply side, governments at all levels, telecom operators, large state-owned enterprises and Internet companies have gathered massive data and provided a variety of supply forms. From the demand side, it is mainly financial institutions, retail enterprises and other institutions that need external data to achieve business optimization. In 2023, with the deepening of industry data integration and application, as well as the outbreak of data demand in government affairs, meteorology, transportation, medical and other industries, the data element market will enter a stage of rapid development of group breakthroughs, and the market size is expected to reach 130 billion yuan.
In 2023, with the support of top-level planning and supporting implementation, the advantages of the mainland's massive data scale and rich application scenarios will be activated, ushering in the full release of data value.
In terms of data property rights, with solving the actual problems encountered by market entities as the main point, the concept of diluting ownership, emphasizing the right to use, and strengthening the management of data classification and hierarchical management.
In terms of circulation transactions, first, the data transaction and data circulation supervision system have been gradually improved, and the effective market and the active government have combined and coordinated development; The second is to promote the integration and innovation of public data and social data, stimulate the value of public data, and help the development of the data transaction market.
In terms of revenue distribution, based on the construction of data traceability system, value hierarchical management is carried out to help scientifically optimize data elements and share revenue distribution mechanisms.
In terms of security governance, we will maintain the bottom line of compliance in the circulation of data elements and build a compliant and efficient data security system.
Industrial Internet: Breakthrough in key technologies into the "deep water area"
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, the landing of key technologies such as 5G and edge computing will drive the industrial Internet to expand in depth, promote the expansion of industrial Internet applications from peripheral auxiliary links to core control links, and enter the core "deep water area" of industrial production lines.
In 2022, the mainland industrial Internet will still achieve rapid development under the background of the gradual decoupling of science and technology between China and the United States and the severe situation of the international supply chain, and the industrial added value will reach 4.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 3.64% of GDP. Industrial Internet has been widely used in industrial production auxiliary links such as industrial collaborative R&D design and machine vision inspection, but it is relatively insufficient in core links such as C2IO control and multi-device communication collaboration.
As the key 5G technologies represented by RedCap, TSN, and uRLLC enter the commercial testing stage, the industrial Internet is expected to solve the problems in industrial data transmission, equipment interconnection and other fields, and promote the penetration of application scenarios from auxiliary links to the production line level, workshop level and deeper core links at the factory level.
The four driving factors of policy, capital, demand and technology accelerate the in-depth development of industrial Internet integration and application.
First, the foundation of industrial Internet policy is consolidated. The national "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to "build a number of international standard industrial Internet platforms and digital transformation promotion centers in key industries and regions". The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "5G Fully Connected Factory Construction Guide" proposes to "promote the construction of 5G fully connected factories for various industries such as raw materials, equipment, consumer goods, electronics, and key industries such as mining, ports, and electric power", and in the "Industrial Internet Innovation and Development Action Plan (2021-2023)", it is also mentioned that in 2023, 30 5G fully connected factories will be built in 10 key industries, and the coverage and application level of 5G virtual private network industry will be further improved.
Second, the government has increased spending on digital transformation to help the integrated development of the industrial Internet. In 2021, the mainland's digital transformation expenditure reached US$27.51 billion, and is expected to reach US$2.38 trillion from 2022 to 2026, with a compound growth rate of 18.6%. This fully shows that the government pays close attention to the digital transformation process of small and medium-sized enterprises and is fully promoting the full application of digital technologies such as the industrial Internet.
Third, changes in market demand promote the upgrading of the industrial Internet industry chain. Intelligent manufacturing application demand accelerates the landing of emerging application scenarios, and the collection demand requires more collection, better accuracy, more complete types, and higher frequency. Connection requirements require an increase in the number of connections, an increase in the amount of transmitted data, and an increase in latency reliability. Analysis requirements require accelerated computing power, accelerated modeling process, and deepened analysis accuracy, thereby promoting the upgrading and development of the entire industrial Internet industry chain.
Fourth, information and communication technology innovation accelerates the transformation of the industrial Internet industry. The accelerated integration and application of key technologies such as 5G, edge computing, industrial intelligence, digital twin, and blockchain with the industrial Internet will continue to expand the capability and role boundaries of the industrial Internet. With the breakthrough of lightweight 5G technologies such as RedCap, the price of 5G industrial modules will drop to between $20-30 in 2023, and the domestic 5G module price is expected to drop to less than 300 yuan. The flexible application of 5G modules in industrial sites will promote the accelerated penetration of "5G + industrial Internet" applications from auxiliary links in manufacturing to the entire production chain.
In 2023, "5G + Industrial Internet" will evolve in the direction of technology industrialization and standardization, and realize "two-way empowerment" for upstream and downstream.
First, to promote the improvement of the upstream 5G industrial terminal ecology, overall, 5G industrial terminal types will gradually shift from single data transmission to multi-functional devices in terms of function, and the application mode will gradually shift from the indirect use of 5G with the help of external devices to the direct use of 5G in embedded devices, such as 5G cameras, 5G drones, 5G robots, etc.
The second is to accelerate the implementation of fully connected factories, based on the means of 5G connection, through measures such as ubiquitous data collection, flexible production, transparent visualization of resources, and cloudification of machines, to provide high-value connection capabilities of factories and help factories reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The third is to expand the penetration of vertical industry applications, in the face of the increasing number of 5G chips, modules and terminals in the field of industrial manufacturing, industrial applications will gradually penetrate into the core control links of production, which will effectively promote industrial transformation and upgrading and industrial integration and development.
Robots: cross-border entry of enterprises ushered in "a hundred flowers"
Consultants before the rain believe that in 2023, the demand for robot applications will continue to grow at a high rate. As capital and market continue to heat, more companies choose to enter the robot track, which gives birth to more segmented scenarios, promotes robot companies to derive different models and types of products according to the application needs of different scenarios, and forms a development trend of product diversification and scene diversification.
At present, the market structure of the robot industry is dominated by industrial robots and service robots, among which, in the robot industry, industrial robots are the earliest commercial application, the technology is relatively mature, and the industry market is mainly controlled by ABB, Yaskawa, Fanuc and KUKA "four families".
In recent years, the proportion of industrial robots in the industry has decreased from 54% in 2019 to about 40% in 2021, and it has begun to show a trend of diversified development of market segments.
In 2022, the number of financing projects in the robot industry reached 275, an increase of 39% over 2021.
From the perspective of categories, capital is paying more and more attention to subdivided fields, from extensive investment to precision investment, more than 30 medical robot investment and financing projects, more than 20 mobile robots, service robots, industrial robots investment and financing projects, and more than 10 parts and special robot investment and financing projects.
From the perspective of enterprise layout, cross-industry enterprises have entered the robot industry has increased, and the total number of domestic robot-related enterprises has reached more than 421,000, of which 73,000 new registered enterprises from January to July 2022, with an average growth rate of 39%, with the upgrading of artificial intelligence and other technologies, iFLYTEK, SenseTime and other enterprises have expanded to service robots, and home appliance giants such as Haier have also begun to lay out service robots.
Robot head companies began to expand subdivision tracks, such as Keenon increased its efforts to layout welcome and delivery robots, Pudu Robot entered the distribution and cleaning track, and Gaoxian Robot planned to enter the catering track.
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, the robot industry will be more segmented, the product categories will continue to be enriched, and the application scenarios will continue to expand, and it is expected that iconic and representative robot products will appear in many industry scenarios such as medical care and education, and gradually form a characteristic and open industry ecology.
Demand-driven, technology-driven, and policy-driven are the leading factors supporting the extension of the robot industry to subdivided fields.
First, the disappearance of the demographic dividend has caused demand to rise, driving the continuous innovation of robot products in subdivided fields. At the end of 2022, the national population will decrease by 850,000 people year-on-year, with the change of per capita education and demographic structure, as well as the reduction of labor supply and the rise of wages, the labor cost of the mainland manufacturing industry no longer has advantages, industrial robots can reduce labor costs for the manufacturing industry by at least 16%, and it has become inevitable to improve the quality and breadth of the industry through automated production lines and industrial robots. Coupled with the upgrading of consumer demand, robots in household cleaning, nursing escort, logistics and distribution, education and training and other fields have become more and more valuable, the service industry in the application of robots cost reduction of about 50%~75%, news editors, restaurant chefs, supermarket salesmen, telephone customer service and many other occupations will gradually be replaced by robots.
Second, the integration of multiple technologies promotes intelligent upgrading and accelerates the penetration of robots into subdivided industries. Driven by the integration and innovation of artificial intelligence, materials, algorithms and other technologies, robots are becoming more intelligent and flexible, the capability boundary continues to expand, accelerating the evolution from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence, intelligent stand-alone to intelligent systems, greatly improving complex operation capabilities and unstructured environment perception capabilities, and extending application scenarios from simple human-machine collaboration to precision operations, business services and other fields. For example, Universal Robots has launched the 20kg payload collaborative robot UR20, which is widely used in applications such as palletizing, material handling, machine loading and machine care. At the same time, due to the improvement of the level of flexibility, the robot can achieve higher precision and stronger sensitivity applications, and achieve new breakthroughs in the fields of footwear and clothing manufacturing, fast-moving goods production, biomedical development, food processing and other fields.
The third is the release of policies in multiple application fields, which promotes the accelerated integration of robots into thousands of industries. The "Robot +" Application Action Implementation Plan jointly issued by 17 departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to accelerate the expansion of robot applications, and selected 10 key areas with a certain foundation, wide application coverage and strong radiation driving effect to promote application. In terms of "robot + energy", the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Energy Electronics Industry", encouraging the development of intelligent cleaning robots for photovoltaic power plant systems, intelligent inspection drones and other products; In terms of "robot + manufacturing", multiple departments released the "2022 Intelligent Manufacturing Demonstration Factory Unveiling Unit and Excellent Scene List", and a number of intelligent production lines using robot technology were selected. Driven by policies, the government and industry will open up more robot application scenarios, and innovative robot products suitable for new application fields will emerge one after another.
In 2023, the diversified development of robot products will bring changes in the market pattern.
First, explosive items continue to emerge. Robot product performance improvement and product iteration speed is the key variable affecting the competition of the robot market, at present, robot companies are in the key stage of core product landing, seizing the subdivision track, will continue to create the "first" "new" products in the trillion robot market share.
Second, continuous innovation in application scenarios. Robots are market-driven products, high requirements for cost control, especially in the field of consumption, and constantly expanding the market to achieve large-scale production is an inevitable trend of future development, the industry and enterprises will actively act, in medical testing, education and training, survey and rescue, commercial retail and other scenarios to increase the layout, to application scenario innovation to drive industrial innovation and high-quality development.
Third, the industrial ecology has been gradually improved. At present, there are more than 10,000 robot enterprises (clearly marked in the enterprise name) in China, and the key elements of industrial advantage resources and innovation continue to gather in areas with great robot application potential and good industrial foundation. The industrial robot industry, which developed earlier, has formed an upstream and downstream model of the industrial chain of "core components-ontology manufacturing-integrator". With the continuous increase of market capacity and the gradual maturity of the supply chain, leading enterprises in other subdivisions such as service robots will accelerate the layout of industrial ecology and drive the coordinated development of upstream and downstream.
Integrated circuits: encountered political and economic "double killing" into the reshuffle period
Qianqian consultants believe that under the background of intensifying geopolitical games and declining industry cycles, the global integrated circuit industry will usher in a period of reshuffle of supply chains, talents and enterprises in 2023, and the competition pattern of the entire industrial chain will shift from "global division of labor" to "regional concentration".
Integrated circuit is a highly globalized industry, since the 21st century the global division of labor pattern gradually clear, the United States retains the core design link with higher profit margin, China Taiwan, South Korea in the advanced process manufacturing below 10nm has absolute right to speak, Japan relies on materials, equipment to occupy a place, China relies on the huge downstream market, in the packaging and testing, design links have a certain influence, but no country has a complete independent and controllable industrial chain.
In recent years, events such as the Sino-US science and technology war, the new crown epidemic, and the Russian-Ukrainian war have stagnated the flow of integrated circuit technology, capital, talents and other factors, and the long-term global division of labor market pattern is gradually being rewritten, gradually evolving into independent regional value chains such as the United States, Europe, and China.
Geopolitical games, sluggish market demand, and the initial formation of domestic substitution will promote the integrated circuit industry into a period of reshuffle.
First, the Sino-US science and technology war has further intensified. The United States has continuously imposed sanctions on China in terms of supply chain and talents, and has joined hands with Japan, the Netherlands and other countries to restrict the export of advanced equipment and hinder the development of China's integrated circuit industry; On the other hand, the United States, Japan and other countries have successively introduced the "chip bill", attracting professional talents and boosting production capacity through huge subsidies, trying to build industrial chain clusters in China; All parties are trying to control the high-end of the integrated circuit value chain, TSMC has announced the construction of wafer fabs in the United States and Japan, and the European Union has also restarted advanced process plans below 5nm.
Second, the end market is sluggish. Consumer electronics is the main battlefield of integrated circuits, and smart phones are facing the same long-term decline trend as PCs in the past, XR and other innovative consumer terminals are difficult to have explosive growth in the short term, the growth of the automotive field is difficult to support, global integrated circuit leading companies have passed pessimistic expectations, Intel 2022 net profit fell 60%, negative growth for three consecutive quarters, TSMC said that the global semiconductor industry other than storage will decline by 4% in 2023.
Third, the domestic substitution opportunities in the low-end integrated circuit market are highlighted. In 2022, China's integrated circuit production will be 324.2 billion pieces, the first negative growth in nearly a decade, more than 20% of integrated circuit design listed companies have losses, in 2022, China will revoke and cancel 5,746 chip-related enterprises, an increase of 68% year-on-year, and the domestic low-end integrated circuit market has gradually changed from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean".
In 2023, the domestic substitution of integrated circuits will show "three accelerations".
First, the process of localization has accelerated. The US sanctions against China will no longer be limited to "advanced processes" and "American enterprises", but will be restricted in all aspects of industrial chain, technology and talents, which will also drive more verification resources and opportunities for domestic equipment and materials.
Second, the commercialization of new technologies has accelerated. In EUV lithography machines, high-end logic chips below 7nm and other links that cannot achieve domestic substitution in the short term, Chiplet, FD-SOI and other advanced process chip alternative solutions accelerate commercialization, and cutting-edge fields such as silicon carbide and RISC-V with small gaps are the core direction of technological breakthroughs.
The third is to accelerate the mergers and acquisitions of enterprises. Sluggish market demand and vacillation of core personnel will become the main dilemma for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, extension mergers and acquisitions are an important part of the development of integrated circuit industry, and the mergers and acquisitions of high-quality enterprises and high-precision talent teams will become the next main theme.
Intelligent Connected Vehicles: Entering the "Fast Lane" of Commercialization in Dedicated Scenarios
Qianqian consultants believe that in 2023, the commercialization of autonomous driving scenarios will be further accelerated under policy guidance, technological breakthroughs, and capital attention, and the scope of landing operations will expand from closed scenarios to low-speed open scenarios, promoting industry development into the fast lane of industrialization.
Under the wave of "new four modernizations" of automobiles, intelligent networked vehicles with Internet of Vehicles, data ecology, and road digital infrastructure as the core have entered the growth stage, autonomous driving has entered the stage of product and business model verification, and driverless taxis, unmanned buses, and unmanned logistics have become the main directions for the commercialization of autonomous driving.
At present, the commercialization of autonomous driving in the field of passenger cars is slow, the penetration rate of L2 assisted driving passenger cars in mainland China is less than 40%, and L3/L4 autonomous driving passenger cars are still in the road test stage and have not yet achieved large-scale mass production.
The commercialization process is not as expected, and the industry heat has plummeted, and the financing scale of the autonomous driving industry will shrink by nearly 80% in 2022, and negative news will continue, such as the bankruptcy of the star company Argo AI, the discounted listing of Mobileye, and the halving of Tucson's future valuation.
At the same time, the commercialization process of autonomous driving in special scenarios such as ports, mining areas, airports, parks, and terminal logistics has accelerated, and in 2022, more than 15 ports and 20 mining areas have landed unmanned projects in mainland China, and the operation volume of unmanned trucks and unmanned mining trucks has exceeded 300 and 400 respectively. The cumulative number of terminal logistics vehicles exceeded 5,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 150%.
Qianqian consultants believe that the commercialization of autonomous driving scenarios will be further accelerated in 2023, promoting the development of the industry into the fast lane of industrialization.
Policy guidance, technological breakthroughs, and capital attention help accelerate the commercialization of autonomous driving scenarios.
First, frequent policies pave the way for commercialization. As of the end of November 2022, the state and various localities have successively issued nearly 80 autonomous driving-related policies, among which the Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China and Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Tianjin and other places have clearly supported the demonstration and application of autonomous driving in specific areas and specific scenarios such as ports, mines, airports, and parks, and the intensive introduction of policies has further promoted the commercialization of autonomous driving scenarios.
Second, technological breakthroughs provide strong support for commercialization. The first domestic L4 autonomous driving chip mass-produced by Horizon breaks the monopoly of foreign countries, with a single computing power of 128TOPS; MANA OASIS released the autonomous driving intelligent computing center MANA OASIS with 6.7 billion floating point operations per second; Telecom operators are accelerating the R&D and verification of key 5G technologies such as virtual private networks and network slicing, enabling dedicated scenarios to carry out autonomous driving applications.
Third, capital focuses on providing acceleration for commercialization. In 2022, under the cold capital winter, the enthusiasm of investment and financing for autonomous driving in mainland special scenarios will not decrease, with more than 50 important investment and financing events, with a total investment of more than 6 billion yuan, accounting for more than 65% of the investment and financing in the commercial field. In January 2023, eight important investments and financings in the field of autonomous driving commercialization around the world were related to dedicated scenarios, with a total investment of more than 1 billion yuan.
In 2023, the scope of operation of autonomous driving scenarios will continue to expand, business models will mature rapidly, and industrialization will enter the fast lane.
First, the low-speed opening scene will set off a wave of commercialization. On the one hand, the commercial operation of closed scenarios such as ports, mines, airports, and parks has moved from the pilot trial period to the rapid promotion period, on the other hand, driven by the issuance of unmanned vehicle road test permits in many places, low-speed open scenarios such as terminal logistics and unmanned sanitation will become the next battlefield for the commercialization of autonomous driving.
Second, the rapid establishment of a win-win alliance. With the acceleration of commercialization, autonomous driving technology companies will change from the initial dominant party to the participant, forming an ecological alliance with enterprises in vertical fields such as ports, mines, airports, and parks, and the cooperation model of "autonomous driving solution + vehicle + operation" is becoming increasingly mature.
The third is to accelerate the normal operation of "de-security officers". After taking the lead in realizing the normalization of the operation of unmanned vehicles "de-safety officers", the mode of discharging safety officers in ports and mining areas will be quickly copied to achieve an unmanned closed loop. Closed scenarios such as airports and parks will gradually realize the normal operation of "de-safety officers" according to the gradual route of the safety officer withdrawing from the main driver to the co-driver and the safety officer getting off the car and remote monitoring.
New display: Chinese mainland OLED challenges South Korea's supremacy
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, the global OLED panel industry competition pattern will accelerate the adjustment, Chinese mainland OLED production capacity may surpass South Korea, and the absolute dominance of the Korean display industry will be challenged.
Under the dual drive of market demand and technological innovation, the new display mainstream technology continues to iterate, the display panel to fast response, good color performance, thin and light performance, endurance for a long time continuous evolution, at this stage of the mainstream application of the three major display technologies, OLED has low energy consumption, thin and suitable and flexible characteristics.
In 2021, South Korea still occupies a leading position in the OLED field, with its global market share reaching 82.8%, but with the release of domestic OLED production capacity, the total production capacity of OLED panels Chinese mainland in 2022 accounts for nearly 45% of the world.
Therefore, before the rain, consultants believe that China is expected to replace South Korea as the world's largest OLED panel supplier in 2023, and the level of supply chain autonomy will continue to increase.
Unlike the LCD industry entering the market when it enters a mature period, domestic panel manufacturers cut into the layout in the early and middle stages of the OLED industry development, and accelerated to catch up in technology, production capacity and market applications.
First, the technology industry leads. Through more than ten years of technology research and development and patent layout, BOE, Visionox, Tianma Microelectronics and other domestic panel manufacturers have mastered key technologies in the OLED field. In 2022, the domestic display leader BOE surpassed Samsung with 2,195 patents, ranking 11th in the world in the US patent authorization ranking, and as of December 2022, BOE has accumulated more than 80,000 independent patent applications, including more than 28,000 flexible OLED-related patent applications, covering core technologies such as flexible folding, full screen, under-screen camera, and pixel arrangement.
The second is the forward-looking layout of the production line. At present, there are more than 20 new or proposed OLED production lines in mainland China, with a total investment of more than one trillion yuan, and the number and investment amount exceed that of South Korea. With the commissioning of BOE's Chongqing plant, Tianma Wuhan plant and Visionox Huishan plant, Chinese mainland AMOLED production capacity has increased rapidly, and the Chinese mainland AMOLED production capacity will reach 17 million square meters in 2022, with a five-year compound growth rate of 87.26%.
Third, market demand pulls. The market penetration rate of full-size OLED has accelerated, promoting the rapid development of the domestic OLED industry. On the one hand, OLED is accelerating the replacement of LCD in the field of small and medium-sized sizes, according to Omdia data, AMOLED penetration rate in the field of smartphones has reached 35.3% in 2021, and is expected to further increase to 42.5% in 2023; On the other hand, OLED has accelerated its penetration into medium and large size fields, with OLED tablet and notebook computer penetration rates of 1.8% and 2.7% respectively in 2021, and it is expected that the penetration rate is expected to increase to 10.2% and 22.5% in 2029.
In 2023, the strong rise of domestic OLED will drive the coordinated development of the industrial chain and supply chain.
The first is to enhance the independent controllability of the domestic new display industry chain supply chain. Under the new development pattern of OLED industry, domestic leading enterprises with international competitiveness will accelerate the localization of supply chains, promote the agglomeration and integration of resource elements in the four major gathering areas, continuously enhance the independent innovation ability of materials and equipment and the overall technical level, and improve the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain.
The second is to improve the added value of the domestic new display industry chain supply chain. In the OLED industry chain, display materials and equipment costs account for the highest proportion, of which organic material costs account for 23% and equipment costs account for 35%. With the increase of domestic OLED panel manufacturers' production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of upstream materials and equipment with high profit margins will be further improved, and the mainland's new display industry will accelerate its leap to the high-end value chain.
The third is to promote the optimization of the collaborative innovation ecology of the domestic new display industry chain and supply chain. The domestic new display industry is leading in the field of system integration and manufacturing, but its dependence on key materials and processes, components and preparation technologies, and high-end equipment is still high. From a major display country to a display power, the mainland will accelerate the construction of a collaborative innovation and development mechanism between upstream materials and downstream panels and terminal enterprises, create an innovation ecology with diversified participation, and enhance the maturity of key technologies, continuous innovation capabilities and product market competitiveness.
Innovative drugs: License-out promotes pharmaceutical companies to sail overseas
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, with the promotion of medical reform and drug reform, the License-out model, which is a stepping stone for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to go overseas, will continue to be hot, which will break the "involution" situation of domestic innovative drug enterprises, promote the internationalization, commercialization and differentiated development of domestic innovative drug enterprises, and become a breaking point for the rapid development of the innovative drug industry.
In the past decade, generic drug companies accounted for more than 90% of China's pharmaceutical companies, but a large number of domestic generic drugs are crude and inferior, safe and ineffective, with the gradual landing of policies such as "consistency evaluation", the generic drug industry has been completely reshuffled, and Chinese pharmaceutical companies have accelerated their transformation from generic to innovation, setting off a "tide of going abroad" in the market.
The number of license-out events and transaction value of pharmaceutical companies have increased year by year, from 10 cases and US$320 million in 2016 to 53 cases and US$14.48 billion in 2021, and some companies' earnings have achieved milestones. In the first half of 2022, SMEs joined the License-out team, reaching a total of 28 projects with a total transaction value of US$5.67 billion.
The popularity of license-out continues to grow, and in the next decade, this model will become an important choice for Chinese innovative drug companies.
The consultant before the rain believes that 2023, as a year of recovery in the multi-party market, the capital "winter will go", the demand and heat of drug research and development will continue to rise, and the "going overseas" of innovative drug companies has become an important trend under industrial upgrading and transformation.
Policy-driven, financing difficulties, and breakthroughs in capabilities stimulate the international development of innovative pharmaceutical enterprises.
First, policy-driven enterprise R&D transformation. In recent years, with the introduction of policies such as the acceleration of national drug procurement, the strengthening of medical insurance fee control, and the acceleration of the approval process of innovative drugs, the mainland biopharmaceutical industry has entered a period of major adjustment, with the average price of generic drugs falling by more than 50%, and corporate profits have been greatly compressed and gradually lost market competitiveness. Therefore, by increasing the scale of R&D investment of enterprises and increasing the proportion of innovative drugs in the pharmaceutical market structure, mainland pharmaceutical enterprises can realize the transformation from generic drugs to innovative drugs.
Second, the cold winter of capital stimulates enterprises to go overseas for financing. In 2022, with the global economic depression brought about by the epidemic and the increasingly complex international situation, the market value of some innovative drug companies hit a record low, investors' risk aversion has increased significantly, and the difficulty of financing innovative pharmaceutical companies has increased, according to arterial network statistics, the total financing scale of the domestic biopharmaceutical field in 2022 will be 172.14 US dollars, down 55.4% from the same period last year in 2021, and China's innovative drug industry has fallen to the bottom, which has forced innovative pharmaceutical companies to shrink their strategies, adjust their R&D pipelines, and International market development to cover drug development costs. For example, explore the common international pharmaceutical enterprise cooperation path, use the license-out model to cooperate with international large pharmaceutical companies, transfer part of the equity to obtain high cash returns, and support drug research and development and corporate operations.
Third, the ability to innovate has been internationally recognized. The recognition of domestic innovative drug companies by multinational pharmaceutical companies continues to increase, the number of small and medium-sized pharmaceutical companies going overseas in the license-out mode is increasing day by day, and the total transaction volume of drugs going overseas is constantly refreshed, and domestic capital will be able to use this model to successfully go overseas as an important criterion to evaluate their R&D capabilities, so that the valuation of innovative drugs is no longer subjectively judged by investors, thereby greatly enhancing investment confidence, and the degree of favor of innovative drug industry by capital has gradually increased.
In 2023, the license-out model will change the operation and R&D thinking of innovative drug companies.
The first is to explore the internationalization of drugs in the license-out model. Enterprises will no longer be limited to using this model to obtain funds to maintain the survival of enterprises in research and development, in the context of the gradual recovery of the primary and secondary capital markets and the continuous introduction of favorable policies, innovative drug companies will survive the cold winter period, improve the intensity of drug research and development, and use the license-out model to authorize the late-stage research and development of drugs to Europe, America, Japan and emerging markets along the Belt and Road, and explore the way for globalization.
The second is to explore drug development differentiation in the license-out model. Most enterprises that lack the strength of the whole process of drug R&D will clarify the commercialization mode of R&D drugs in advance, with the ultimate goal of successfully authorizing overseas and maximizing marginal benefits in the process of drug R&D, identifying overseas key directions from the beginning of project establishment, and developing differentiated products in clinical applications in related fields, so as to ensure that foreign companies continue to follow up the product after successful overseas expansion, so as to continue to make profits.
The third is to explore the commercialization of R&D results in the License-out model. The company divides the benefits of the drug R&D results that have successfully gone overseas in stages, and feeds back the company's innovation and R&D to form a complete closed loop. At the same time, maintain communication with partners, adjust the layout of its own product pipeline, and achieve complementary advantages, thereby reducing the risk of new drug research and development, accelerating the entry of domestic innovative drugs into the international market, and stepping out of the road of differentiation.
Energy storage: multiple factors create a "golden track" for industry and commerce
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, multiple factors such as the frequent occurrence of "power rationing orders", the high increase in new installed capacity of photovoltaics, and the widening of the peak-valley price difference will gradually reflect the economy of industrial and commercial energy storage, drive industrial and commercial energy storage into the "golden track", and promote industrial development to achieve quantitative variable growth from 1 to N.
2022 is the first year of the outbreak of energy storage, with a grid-connected scale of 7.76GW/16.43GWh, of which user-side energy storage only accounts for 10% of the total grid-connected volume (including some lead-carbon energy storage projects), and the corresponding lithium battery industrial and commercial energy storage projects are also less.
It is estimated that 0.7 yuan/kWh is the profit and loss dividing line for industrial and commercial energy storage for peak-valley price spread arbitrage, and from the peak-to-valley price difference of major provinces and cities in the country in January 2023, 11 provinces and cities have peak-to-valley price difference of more than 0.7 yuan/kWh, which has high economy.
In the next decade, industrial and commercial energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale application and promotion. The consultant before the rain believes that 2023, as a key year for the transformation track, the economic prominence of industrial and commercial energy storage and sufficient growth momentum will promote the continuous expansion of enterprises, the continuous extension of the industrial chain, and the continuous injection of capital, becoming an important growth pole for many enterprises and forming a new driving force for industrial development.
The frequent issuance of "power rationing orders", the high increase in photovoltaic installed capacity, and the widening of peak-to-valley price differences have boosted the accelerated growth of the industrial and commercial energy storage industry.
First, the demand side: the power rationing policy has spawned a strong demand for backup power from industrial and commercial users. Driven by the background of "dual carbon" and the transformation of energy structure, enterprises with high losses due to power cuts and production stoppages are more willing to seek backup power to avoid the impact of emergencies, and industrial and commercial energy storage has become an important means for domestic enterprises to achieve emergency power backup, maintain normal operations, and reduce energy expenditures.
The second is the supply side: the new installed capacity of industrial and commercial photovoltaics is high. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the greater demand for green energy has led to a rapid increase in China's distributed photovoltaic installed capacity, and photovoltaic energy storage can save the electricity cost of industrial and commercial enterprises, ensure the power supply under special circumstances, and will effectively drive the development of photovoltaic and storage integrated microgrids.
The third is the policy side: policy escort and optimize the time-of-use electricity price mechanism. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Signing and Performance of Medium- and Long-term Electricity Contracts in 2023, which pointed out that all localities should formulate a time-based price formation mechanism for medium- and long-term contracts that is compatible with local electricity supply and demand and market construction in light of actual conditions, reasonably widen the peak-valley price difference, and strengthen the connection between medium- and long-term and spot price mechanisms; In the future, the widening of peak-valley price difference is a policy trend, and the economy of industrial and commercial distribution and storage will be further highlighted, which is expected to promote the rapid growth of installed capacity.
In 2023, industrial and commercial energy storage will usher in an outbreak with increasingly favorable policies, increasingly mature technology, increasingly consolidated markets, and gradual improvement of profits.
Renewable energy continues to grow, the trend of peak-valley price spread widening is obvious, peak-valley time settings will be staggered with new energy power generation peak hours, in the increasing peak-valley price difference + peak-valley setting trend suitable for energy storage development, it is expected that the provinces suitable for investment in industrial and commercial energy storage systems at the national level are expected to gradually increase.
New filing projects are on the rise, industrial and commercial energy storage is gradually emerging, industrial and commercial energy storage priority to achieve high growth rate will be Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces with more developed industrial activities and higher economy brought about by changes in electricity price policies.
New industrial and commercial energy storage brands continue to influx, gradually with old players to form a dance situation, the current competition barriers of various enterprises are not obvious, the future new entrants can overtake through capital financing, differentiated market development, sales channel expansion and brand maintenance construction, so as to achieve the domestic industrial and commercial energy storage market from 1 to N.
Photovoltaic: N-type batteries are coming in an all-round way to accelerate the "change of dynasty"
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, the N-type cell production capacity of the photovoltaic industry will usher in a large-scale release, and the comprehensive replacement of P-type batteries will be opened, which will drive the backward production capacity of the photovoltaic industry to accelerate the elimination, promote the industry as a whole to enter the era of mass production conversion rate of 25%, and lead the photovoltaic industry to enter a new round of growth cycle.
In the past decade, P-type cells have dominated the crystalline silicon photovoltaic cell market, with a market share of 95%. Under the continuous iteration of the PERC technical roadmap, the efficiency of photovoltaic power generation continues to improve, and the cost of photovoltaic manufacturing continues to decline, promoting the photovoltaic industry from the policy-driven support stage to the market-driven "parity grid" stage.
As the conversion efficiency of P-type cells approaches the theoretical limit, N-type cells will open a new era of solar cell technology. In 2022, N-type batteries will gradually achieve mass production, and it is expected to officially usher in large-scale production capacity release in 2023.
In the next three years, the market share of a new generation of high-efficiency solar cells represented by N-type batteries will increase rapidly, and the comprehensive replacement of P-type batteries will be realized.
The influx of funds, leading layout, mature technology and stable prices of the industrial chain will promote the release of large-scale production capacity of N-type batteries, and the market share will increase significantly.
First, the influx of funds stimulates the accelerated expansion of production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, more than 20 photovoltaic companies will invest more than 120 billion yuan in N-type cells. Up to now, the domestic N-type high-efficiency battery production capacity planning has exceeded 640 GW, of which the planned production capacity of HJT battery exceeds 190GW, TOPCon battery benefits from the advantages of compatibility with the PERC production line, the capacity planning exceeds 450GW, IBC technology [] is not fully mature, the current capacity planning is not clear.
The second is the leading layout, and 2023 will usher in a large-scale production capacity release. In the past two years, leading photovoltaic companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Co., Ltd., and iKang Technology have all deployed N-type batteries. According to preliminary statistics, by the end of 2022, the completed production capacity of N-type batteries was nearly 96GW, but due to the limitation of capacity climbing, the actual mass production scale is currently insufficient. In 2023, the N-type cell production capacity is expected to reach 180GW, achieving large-scale mass production.
Third, the technology is mature, and the conversion rate of mass production drives the comprehensive industrialization development. In the past two years, the mass production conversion efficiency of N-type batteries has continued to improve, showing obvious advantages over the theoretical limit value of 24.5% conversion efficiency of P-type cells. At present, the latest mass production efficiency of N-type TOPCon batteries has exceeded 25%, and the mass production efficiency of HJT batteries is close to 25%, and it is expected that N-type batteries will fully enter the era of mass production conversion rate of 25% in 2023. With the continuous influx of N-type battery upstream equipment companies, it is expected that the investment cost will be further reduced in the future.
Fourth, the price of the industrial chain has stabilized, and N-type batteries have ushered in greater market space. Affected by high supply chain prices, the tender scale of N-type modules in the first half of 2022 was only 4.5GW, accounting for only 4.96% of the total tender scale. It is expected that with the gradual stabilization of upstream prices and the narrowing of the N/P cell cost spread, N-type cells and modules will usher in a larger market space in 2023, and the market share is expected to increase to 25.7%.
The large-scale industrialization of N-type batteries in 2023 will promote the comprehensive "reshuffle" of the photovoltaic industry.
The first is to promote the photovoltaic industry to concentrate on leading enterprises. Compared with traditional P-type batteries, N-type battery production line investment scale is large, technical requirements are higher, N-type battery large-scale industrialization will make profound changes in the competition pattern of photovoltaic enterprises, and the industry's competitive advantage will be further concentrated in the head enterprises and technical advantage enterprises. It is expected that in the next 3~5 years, the photovoltaic industry may usher in a wave of partial mergers and acquisitions.
The second is to promote the accelerated elimination of backward production capacity. With the full replacement of N-type cells, the mass production conversion efficiency of photovoltaic power generation has entered the 25% stage, which means that the existing PERC cell production line of nearly 460GW will face comprehensive technological upgrading or capacity elimination.
Third, forward-looking technology-based enterprises are expected to overtake on curves. In the new round of photovoltaic industry competition, emerging technology-based enterprises with forward-looking layout of N-type batteries, such as Junda Co., Ltd., Mubang Hi-Tech, and Huasheng New Energy, are expected to overtake on curves and accumulate new development advantages. Forward-looking cities, such as Yancheng, Xuzhou and Chuzhou, are also expected to take advantage of the momentum and give birth to new forces in the photovoltaic industry.
Fourth, upstream equipment and auxiliary materials enterprises ushered in new opportunities. With the TOPCon in 2023, HJT production line continues to accelerate investment and expansion, and it is expected that upstream equipment and materials companies will continue to maintain a short outbreak window. For example, Jiejia Weichuang, North Huachuang, Suzhou Goodtech, Foster and other enterprises continue to provide POE film, boron diffusion furnace, laser etching equipment, LPCVD diffusion equipment, and low-temperature silver paste and other equipment and auxiliary materials products required by HJT production line for photovoltaic cell manufacturing enterprises.
Hydrogen energy: Green hydrogen on the first year to drive hydrogen cars to run fast
The consultant before the rain believes that in 2023, green hydrogen will begin to be applied to fuel cell vehicles in batches, promote the application of hydrogen energy in the transportation field to achieve a leapfrog transformation from gray hydrogen to green hydrogen, drive the downstream demonstration application of hydrogen energy industry into the "acceleration + green" development stage, and contribute to the "dual carbon" goal.
Since the birth of the first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in mainland China for more than 20 years, the development speed of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been relatively slow, and problems such as difficulty in large-scale hydrogen production, technical restrictions on storage and transportation, difficulty in the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, high cost of hydrogen, and lack of policy support have restricted the development of hydrogen energy industry and fuel cell vehicles.
According to statistics, the mainland will produce 33 million tons of hydrogen in 2021, green hydrogen accounts for only 3%, the current green hydrogen production is small, hydrogen has not yet been fully greened, the hydrogen used in the demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the domestic transportation field is basically gray hydrogen - by-product hydrogen, the proportion of green hydrogen is almost zero, and green environmental protection has not been achieved, which is very different from the "dual carbon" goal.
Accelerating the green transformation of the transportation field is the original intention of developing fuel cell vehicles, the use of clean green hydrogen is the ultimate goal, green hydrogen production will be widely used in the demonstration application of mature transportation field, "dual carbon" goals and hydrogen vehicle demonstration goals of the double blessing will promote green hydrogen acceleration on the car, become the future industrial development direction, fuel cell vehicles will also gradually achieve green hydrogen replacement.
The consultant before the rain believes that 2023 will be a key year for the large-scale production of green hydrogen, and fuel cell vehicles as an important downstream demonstration application will use green hydrogen in large quantities to promote the leapfrog development of gray hydrogen to green hydrogen in the transportation field.
Special projects, cost reduction and production increase, and breakthroughs in barriers promote the acceleration of green hydrogen.
First, special projects to promote green hydrogen on the car. Since 2022, green hydrogen projects specially set up for hydrogen vehicle operation are gradually increasing, state-owned enterprises have invested in a large number of green hydrogen special projects in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang and other regions, and the Ordos wind-solar hydrogen production integration project with an annual output of 72,000 tons of green hydrogen will be put into operation in 2023, in addition to a number of green hydrogen special projects will also be put into production one after another.
The second is to reduce costs and increase production to promote green hydrogen on the train. In 2022, domestic green hydrogen projects will show explosive growth, the total scale of hydrogen production of green hydrogen projects under construction and planning will reach 12.1GW, and the total installed capacity of projects completed and put into operation in 2023 will reach 1327MW, concentrated in wind and photovoltaic advantageous areas, will achieve an annual output of about 100,000 tons of green hydrogen, and new high-efficiency photovoltaic cells such as N-type TOPCon, high-power fans and other technological breakthroughs further reduce the cost of wind and photovoltaics, and the decline in renewable electricity prices promotes the cost of green hydrogen. It will enable the advantageous areas of wind and photovoltaics to realize the batch of green hydrogen.
Third, the breakthrough of barriers promotes green hydrogen on the car. 2022 is the first year of the policy of hydrogen production in non-chemical parks, and Shandong, Guangdong and other places have issued a number of relevant policies and landed a series of hydrogen production projects in non-chemical parks. Guangdong Province issued the "Guangdong Province Fuel Cell Vehicle Hydrogen Refueling Station Management Interim Measures", allowing the construction of hydrogen production and hydrogenation integrated stations in non-chemical parks, Shenzhen's first hydrogen production and hydrogenation integrated station has also passed the acceptance, will gradually begin formal demonstration, the legalization of hydrogen production and hydrogenation integrated stations will make green hydrogen on the car ready to meet the conditions.
In 2023, green hydrogen on the vehicle will promote the acceleration of hydrogen energy industry application and drive the "acceleration + green" development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
The first is to promote the expansion of the hydrogen vehicle market. With the batch application of green hydrogen to fuel cell vehicles, the problem of insufficient hydrogen supply in the transportation field has been solved, and after all the green hydrogen projects that have been disclosed are completed and put into operation, the total scale will reach an annual output of about 950,000 tons, which can be used for about 520,000 hydrogen vehicles for one year, coupled with the decline in the cost of renewable energy hydrogen production, the cost of hydrogen vehicles will also decline, thereby attracting enterprises to actively enter the market and expand the scale of the hydrogen vehicle market.
The second is to help accelerate the application of hydrogen energy + green development. The application of hydrogen energy in heavy trucks, logistics vehicles and other models is accelerating, driving the fuel cell vehicle industry to "run" out of acceleration, but also will encourage enterprises to vigorously develop green hydrogen projects, green hydrogen gradually replace gray hydrogen, help fuel cell vehicles achieve zero carbon emissions, the transportation field to achieve carbon reduction development, hydrogen energy applications in all fields are gradually taking steps towards greening.
The third is to force the progress of hydrogen energy technology. While promoting the mature development of downstream fuel cell vehicle applications, it will force the progress of upstream hydrogen production technology, which is expected to achieve large-scale production of green hydrogen, promote the rapid iteration of fuel cell technology, and promote the upstream and downstream circular development of the industry.
——END——