Jordan takes away draft bad luck? The Hornets draft night will be a shame on whether Henderson can save Charlotte

Originally compiled from: The Athletic

Written by Sam Vecenie

原标题：Hornets NBA Draft Big Board: They should draft Scoot Henderson, but will they?

The Charlotte Hornets are in a time of change. Michael Jordan officially sold his majority stake in the team to Gabe Plotkin and Rich Schnarr, and he is no longer the team's main owner. Due to the upcoming free agency, some unfortunate veteran health and some draft missteps in 2021, the core squad they have assembled around LaMelo Ball is a bit shaky.

However, in addition to the No. 27, No. 34, No. 39 and No. 41 picks, the Hornets also received the No. 2 overall pick. This is a real opportunity to bring a lot of talent and asset value. We'll delve into the team's roster profile and draft history, then provide a look at the Hornets' possible draft plans and potential actions on the trade market.

Team evaluation

The Hornets are in a fascinating position. With the exception of Ball, it's hard to identify the long-term "core" of the team. Charlotte's first-round pick last year, Mark Williams, performed well in the center position and ended the season strongly. In addition, substitute Nick Richards signed a team-friendly contract extension at the end of the season. I'm a Williams supporter, and Richards' contract extension makes me feel like adding personnel to the center position is not a priority other than the veterans that may appear in the market this offseason.

In addition to the second-place pick Ball and Williams, the two potential cores of the offseason will be restricted free agents. Teams need to make decisions on strikers Miles Bridges and PJ Washington, and the situation is complicated due to a variety of factors.

Last season, Bridges missed the game after an offseason incident involving the mother of his child. He did not plead to a single felony charge of domestic violence last November, and as part of an agreement with prosecutors, he will face a three-year suspended sentence but will not go to jail. Starting in the 2023-24 season, he will be banned for another 10 games (20 of which are considered to have been banned). If I were managing the team, I wouldn't have let Bridges come back. But I'm not the head of this team, and there are signs that this team is about to reunite with Bridges.

On the court, Bridges is a talented player who averaged 20.2 points and seven rebounds per game during the 2021-22 outburst. Considering that there are many factors involved in renewal negotiations, it is not convenient to guess the content of the contract at this time.

Washington set a career-high score last season, starting every game and averaging 15.7 points per game. However, his efficiency dropped, and he shot less than 55 percent from true range in three of his four NBA seasons. Other high-level data were not particularly friendly to him. But on the other hand, he's an all-around defensive player with the potential to be a mid-level three-point shooter, a combination that often helps teams win.

But Washington could also be the kind of player whose team struggles to weigh in on contracts. Last October, Brandon Clark signed a four-year, $50 million contract with the Grizzlies that seemed like a solid analogy. Maybe the Hornets will add a little premium to the deal for his shots and push Washington's next contract between $55 million and $60 million for four years. This feels like a reasonable value. We'll see how things play out.

Recent rookies James Bornett, Kay Jones and JT Thor have yet to establish themselves in the team in a positive way. Bryce McGoins, a second-round pick last season who averaged 11 points and 2.5 assists in his final 11 games, showed some interesting flashes, but he is now more of a lottery ticket than a cornerstone of the team.

In addition to them, the team has three veterans who can be used to flesh out the lineup or as trade chips. Gordon Hayward enters the final year of his contract and will receive a salary of $31.5 million. Terry Rozier has three more years on his contract and about $75 million. Cody Martin's contract is very reasonable — $24 million for three years — as long as he recovers from a knee injury.

This list tells me that the Hornets desperately need more high-end talent right now. There are still too many problems to solve this summer.

Draft history

From 2018 to 2020, the Hornets were one of the most underrated draft teams in the league. Bridges was invaluable in the 12th overall pick in 2018, at least until he was charged with domestic violence. They also drafted Derwent Graham with the 34th pick for two years of starting at the starting level, then signed and traded him to New Orleans in exchange for a 2022 first-round pick that later became Williams. The 2019 NBA Draft was rewarding for the Hornets, as they acquired Washington with the 12th overall pick and contributed solid value, followed by Martin in the second round and Jaylen McDaniels in the recent trade. Ball has been doing well after being drafted No. 3 in 2020, and Richards is also worth the money as a second-round pick.

But in the past two years, there have been more failures than successes. The entire 2021 draft season looked futile, with Bornett, Jones, Thor and Scott Lewis not creating any value for the team so far. Last year, the team's draft reviews were good, Williams looked like a good choice, and McGoons also had a lot of potential. But management also made a maddening trade, handing the No. 13 pick to the Pistons in exchange for a 2023 Nuggets first-round pick and four second-round picks. The deal ended up trading for the 27th, 39th and 41st picks in the draft in 2022 as the 13th pick, plus trading the draft assets used by McDaniels earlier this season and acquiring McGoons last year. From a value standpoint, the deal was a pretty shocking decision that should have been obvious from the start, given that the Nuggets still had two-game league MVP Jokic at the time.

In terms of draft tendencies, the historical summary of the Hornets over the years is that they like aristocratic college players who have had a lot of success at the college level. Think Kemba Walker, Frank Kaminsky, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bridges, Washington, Malik Monk, Cody Zeller, Gerard Henderson, Adam Morrison, and many more. But in recent years, they've changed that model, preferring to bet on high-variable, high-potential young players, including Ball, Thor, McGoons and Jones.

Other teams in the league are likely to laugh at current general manager Mitch Kupchek's emphasis on pre-draft tryouts. But even in that disastrous 2021 draft, the team's overall assessment was good, with more hits than turnovers.

Top-notch draft program

1. Scout Henderson, 19, guard, G League Ignite

If I were Charlotte, I would do it. I won't overcomplicate this choice. As I mentioned in the team evaluation section, I firmly believe that the Hornets just need more talented players. In my opinion, after Victor Venbanyama, Henderson is the most talented player in this draft.

No matter where Henderson goes, he's going to be a very difficult defensive trouble to solve from his first day in the NBA. His ball holding and protecting the ball is very well-rounded. He can make an emergency stop. He can hit jump shots. He can rush all the way to the basket and finish scoring with violence or soft touch. He can play slow or fast, he can make high-level passes. On top of that, he makes a strong punch in the conversion so that he can score easily. Jumpers are a problem, but Henderson's offensive skills are so well-rounded for a teenager, and on top of that, he's very athletic.

As for the popular idea that Henderson and Ball can't coexist: Not only do I disagree with this view, but instead I actually think their styles are complementary.

Henderson is a strong ball handler who has the ability to finish games under the basket while also having a strong mid-range shooting ability. He prefers to score first in style, although he also has the ability to make high-level passes through cover with the ball. He can create passing opportunities by dribbling. Ball, on the other hand, is a more skillful and skillful player, and he excels at three-pointers and layups. He is selfless and when decisions are put on the table, he comfortably plays as a pass-first player.

Most importantly, both players thrive with other ball carriers and know how to operate without other ball carriers. Ball grew up playing with his older brother Lanzo. Henderson just played with Jayden Hardy and Dyson Daniels last season. The two will help each other be more efficient, not take away opportunities from the other.

There are concerns that the combination of Ball and Henderson on the defensive end could be difficult. But I think Henderson's presence will actually free Ball from his current offensive burden, which is better for his long-term development. On top of that, current head coach Steve Clifford excels defensively, with the Hornets ranking sixth in defensive efficiency during this time after Valentine's Day.

Finally, I would like to point out that Henderson is a true culture changer. Talk to someone from the Development League Ignite and they'll tell you that his presence boosts the energy and intensity of the entire team. He already has a professional mindset and demeanor, and he is competitive and has a real drive to succeed. I want him to lead my team. He will continue to work hard and keep improving.

This will be my choice.

2. Brandon Miller, 20, small forward/power forward, Alabama

Miller also makes sense in the Hornets' potential draft plans. I think he's a good choice. But I just don't think he's the right person.

Miller complemented Bridges' position on the flank well if he could come back. Miller's ability at half-time, as a catch-and-shooter, to open up space on the court, locking defenders in situations of mismatches and covering the ball, would go well with Bridges' ball-carrying conversions, off-ball cuts, and open offensive abilities. Miller is fourth on my personal list after Cam Whitmore, regardless of other factors, but the two are so close that it pays to choose the one that best optimizes your roster. For me, it's more likely Miller. His height and size blend well with Washington, who is not tall, and Bridges, who is undersized, especially given his scrambling ability on rebounds and his ability to complete defense.

Still, I'd choose Henderson over Miller because I think he's a player with more potential. As mentioned above, I think he's harder to be tackled by defenders than Miller because his skills in covering the ball are so diverse.

I also think Miller has a little more shortcomings than it seems. He shot just 39.5 percent from the field at halftime, which is a bad number for a 6-foot-9 winger, and given how important the technique is to his game, he's shooting more from three-point range than you might think. In his first 13 games, he shot 44.8 percent from three-point range. Over the next 12 games, he shot 40% from the field (still good). But in his final 12 games, he shot just 30.6 percent from three-point range (pretty bad). According to KenPom, Miller shot just 33.1 percent from three-point range in 16 games against Division A opponents.

3. Cam Whitmore, 18, striker, Villanova

I believe in Whitmore very much, he's number three on my list, but I'm a little worried that Charlotte won't get the most out of his game. I think he'll do better in a squad that has established a real degree of ball transfer. Whitmore, whose assist percentage this season is the lowest in history among potential lottery players, could end up being a finisher. Overall, I think the Hornets should avoid these types of players.

Trading Watch?

The Hornets have done well in the draft in recent years, but the problem is that they don't have enough draft assets to continue adding helpers to Ball because they haven't quite hit bottom yet. Since 2014, they have had lotto picks in the draft in all but one season, but so far, only once in the top five picks. This year is an opportunity for the Hornets to add quality talent that hasn't had enough opportunities in recent years. They should take advantage of this opportunity.

I would choose Scott Henderson because I think he's a real first-line star. But if their assessment of Henderson's organizational ability is a bit low, they should consider potential trade avenues to get a real star on a long-term contract.

Of course, these guys are not easy to find. I'd even be hesitant to trade Pelicans star Brandon Ingram, whom I really value but who he only has two years left on his contract. (According to Will Guillory of The Athletic, the Pelicans are unlikely to add Ingram to any potential trade, so it's a theoretical deal.) I need to know in advance if Ingram is willing to renew his contract in six months. Ingram is a native of North Carolina and in a hypothetical deal, he would lose his top salary qualification, which may frustrate him and his agent, but he would be eligible to sign a regular maximum salary contract six months after the deal. I wonder if he's willing to play at that level for at least two more seasons.

If he doesn't want to, then I'll keep this No. 2 sign for myself.

Draft list for pick number 27

For this signing, I have removed all the top 16 players from my list, including the first four pages of the overall list. In addition, I removed Chris Murray, Jordan Hawkins, Jamie Jax, Nick Smith Jr. and Jett Howard, all of whom I believe could have been picked before the Hornets 27th pick.

If they decide to keep the 34th pick, the list may include players who should be the 34th pick.

1. Trading

The Hornets also have 34th, 39th and 41st picks,

They can get players in these positions who are worth a similar value to the No. 27 pick. I think the Hornets could trade at least two of those four picks, depending on who their potential picks are. There are plenty of competitive teams looking to get a second-round pick from the bottom or top 40. The roster includes Milwaukee, Phoenix and Cleveland, who are not authorized to speak publicly about other teams, according to anonymous sources in the league.

Knowing this, the Hornets' No. 27 pick is likely to be valuable, potentially allowing them to land a higher first-round pick in the future. Also, I think the No. 34 and No. 39 picks could have players at a similar level to the No. 27 pick.

2. Bryce Senzaburg, 19, forward, Ohio State University

NBA teams are still making a final decision on the Senzaburg medical report. He had two torn meniscus surgeries in high school and only recently began training with the team after dealing with a knee injury at the end of the season.

Here's the only reason he has a chance to be the No. 27 rookie. Senzaburg is one of the best scorers in the Class of 2023, and as a true freshman, he averaged 16 points per game while shooting 48 percent from the field, 40.5 percent from three-point range and 83 percent from the free throw line. I like Senzaab's ability to have the top 20 picks and think the Hornets have enough quality to risk him because they have so many draft picks.

3. Noah Cloney, 18, power forward/center, Alabama

I think Kroney could be picked for this position, but I'm not sure exactly where he will be. Kroney is well rated for his defensive approach, and as a sporting forward who is 6ft 10 in and has a 7ft 3 reach, he has a defensive advantage, and I think Steve Clifford will appreciate his future development. Kroney differs from Thor and Jones because of his ability to influence the game on the defensive end.

4. Olivier-Maxnes-

Prosper

, 20 years old, striker, Marquette

Prosper has been one of the strongest risers in the run-up to the draft, as he excelled at joint training camp in May and excelled in his career. He is an excellent defensive player who has blocked a number of players in the Eastern Conference this season, including potential first-round pick Whitmore, Colby Jones and Hawkins. He is also a shooter with room for improvement. For Clifford, he is a solid defensive pawn that can be used in the No. 2 to No. 4 position.

5.

Colby Jones, 21, guard/forward, Xavier

Jones is a consistent player and the Hornets have had success in previous years. Jones can shoot catch-and-receive three-pointers, hold the ball as a second playmaker, break through and pass, and complete offense at the basket. Most importantly, he is a reliable defender. If they choose him, he will be a solid addition to Ball and/or Henderson, or he can play alongside them as long as he can maintain the level of his catch-and-jump shot.