Sudden bearishness! The renminbi plunged more than 500 points, A-shares closed down, Hong Kong stock technology fell nearly 2%, and AI overheated

Last week's central bank interest rate cut and Blinken's visit to China triggered market hopes for stable management growth and improved Sino-US relations, A-share consumption, medicine, new energy and other low-level sectors rebounded violently, the renminbi also appreciated sharply, and the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index exceeded 20,000 points. But there was no further favorable introduction over the weekend, the results of Sino-US talks did not exceed expectations, the market's optimistic expectations for the economy fell, today's intraday RMB depreciated sharply, foreign capital in last Thursday, Friday after a sharp purchase of 20 billion today slightly outflow today, last week's sharp rebound of consumption, medicine, new energy and other low-level sectors also pulled back, only AI-related sectors thrived.

Specifically, today's intraday offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated sharply by more than 500 points without strengthening the US dollar index, falling below 7.16.

We found that the RMB exchange rate was particularly weak in the stock and bond exchange. China's 10-year government bond yields have fully recovered losses caused by interest rate cuts due to the fermentation of stable growth expectations on Friday, returning to the choppy range of May. The second chart is the South China Commodity Index, which has also rebounded a lot from the end of May, indicating that the pessimistic expectations of the bond market and commodity market on the domestic economy have been repaired, but the renminbi is still at a low level, which may be different from the expectations of domestic and foreign investors.

Due to the realization of interest rate cuts and Blinken's visit to China, today's A-shares, Hong Kong stocks are low and weak, Hong Kong stocks rebounded more today also fell more, the Hang Seng Technology Index once fell nearly 3%, A shares are mainly liquor, real estate, infrastructure and other weighted sectors weakened, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell sharply, which reflects the market's lack of confidence in policy expectations.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.54%, the ChiNext Index was down 0.21%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index was down 0.77%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index was down 1.57%. The turnover of the two cities increased slightly to 1.1 trillion, and the northbound funds sold a net 1.447 billion.

In terms of industries, computer, communications, electronics, media, automobiles and other industries led the rise, while food and beverage, commercial retail, construction, real estate, non-ferrous metals and other industries led the decline.

On the news, the weekend computing power side continued to ferment, an optical module company research minutes show that the demand for 800G from AI is growing rapidly, and the demand for 800G in the whole industry has at least doubled compared with the demand expected at the beginning of the year. At present, AI is similar to April, are accelerating the market, the market hot money is in AI, the top 30 stocks in terms of turnover are basically AI concept stocks, the turnover of the four major TMT industries of computer, electronics, media, and communications accounted for 40% again, and the congestion returned to a high level and entered the silly relay stage.

The problem with A-shares now is that it has become a consensus that the economy is weak, but the management does not want to provide a strong stimulus policy or the market expects that the management will not make a big policy. Therefore, in the context of residents and local governments can not increase leverage, even if the central bank cuts interest rates, the market will only deal with the expectations as they land, and will not believe how much the economy will pick up in the short term, or continue the previous thematic investment ideas, rather than switch to the recovery line.

However, there is a paradox here, if the downward pressure on the economy is really large, then the policy must eventually be let go, and if the economy has the motivation to repair endogenously, the recovery line is over-falling. Entering July, the second quarter results will be disclosed, AI can be said to have no performance in the first quarter, but the second quarter has blown so many additional orders, there can be no performance, is the mule is the horse has to pull out and slip. In addition, we must not believe that AI does not look at the performance, the semiconductor plunge in April is the performance thunderstorm, although the fall may rise, but the high buy into and encounter the thunderstorm loss will be relatively large.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently