Prosperity index of real estate brokerage industry in key cities in May 2023
Compared with the overall decline in the brokerage industry in 40 key cities in April, the brokerage business prosperity of 11 cities rose slightly this month, mainly due to the slight rebound of the property market and the growth of the new housing channel index. In April, 20 cities reached their lowest value since 2023, and in May the number fell to four, but overall, the decline is still the majority.
This phenomenon is more manifested in the slight rebound after the industry crash, such as Hefei and Guiyang, where the popularity of second-hand housing fell by about 20% last month and rose slightly by 2% this month. The overall recovery momentum of the industry is insufficient, especially the obvious decline in Shanghai's industry prosperity in first-tier cities this month, which is a relatively negative signal for the market. The following June, July and August are the traditional off-season of the property market, and it is expected that it will be difficult for the market to have a significant rebound, and the real estate brokerage industry will face difficulties in operation, and the downward pressure on the industry prosperity is great.
Industry background: The policy continued to be loose, and the transaction volume in key cities declined overall
In May 2023, domestic real estate policy continued to be loose. At the central level, the central bank released the first quarter of 2023 China's monetary policy implementation report, which proposed to adhere to the positioning of "housing and living without speculation", stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations, and do a solid job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood, and stability; It is necessary to meet the reasonable financing needs of the industry and effectively prevent and resolve the risks of high-quality head real estate enterprises; It is necessary to adapt policies to support rigid and improved housing demand. Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, introduced the operation of the national economy in April, and also pointed out that the real estate market as a whole is in a period of adjustment, and efforts are still needed to stabilize the real estate market and ensure and improve people's livelihood.
At the local level, policies still continue to support the housing demand side, such as issuing housing purchase subsidies, optimizing purchase restrictions and loans, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans, aiming to ease the pressure of housing purchases and boost demand for housing purchases. In general, the introduction of policies this month is mainly in third- and fourth-tier cities, and some hot cities continue to fine-tune, and the frequency and intensity of policies have weakened compared with the previous period.
In terms of the new housing market, the total transaction volume of 40 key cities this month fell month-on-month, of which the first-tier Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen turned to a high level, and the second-tier cities also fell more or less, although the overall decline narrowed, but mainly because the transaction volume of a few core cities such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Foshan and Ningbo continued to increase month-on-month. Although the monthly volume was slightly better than the same period last year, it was still significantly lower than the same period in 2019-2021. The national real estate development investment data in May also showed a relatively sluggish trend. In terms of the second-hand housing market, the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Hefei, Suzhou and other second-tier cities with a large proportion of second-hand housing transactions, the transaction volume of second-hand housing this month also declined or remained flat.
1. Brokerage companies: The online start index has generally declined
In May, the number of online real estate brokerage stores in 40 key cities still increased slightly compared with the previous month, but the increase continued to fall, the scale adjustment of the industry affected by seasonality has basically ended, and the development of brokerage business has gradually entered normalization. Affected by the "May Day" holiday, the number of travelers has surged, which has caused certain interference to the heat of the property market in many cities, and the motivation of real estate agents to operate is slightly insufficient, resulting in a decline in the number of online operations of brokers.
In 36 of the 40 cities, the online brokerage industry start index decreased from the previous month, specifically, Changzhou fell the most; Guiyang, Nanning, Zhongshan and Hohhot real estate brokerage industry online start index rose in May from the previous period, with Guiyang rising the most, mainly due to the number of brokers increasing by more than 10% compared with April.
Second, new houses: the heat is stable and decreasing, and the canal opening index has increased slightly
After a sharp decline in March and April, the popularity of new housing in 40 key cities fell to the bottom range, and the popularity of new houses in May remained stable compared with the previous month. The popularity of new houses in 16 of the 40 cities has rebounded, of which Dalian, Shijiazhuang, Wuhan and other cities have rebounded the most, with the popularity rising by about 10% month-on-month, mainly due to the superimposed May Day marketing strategy in urban supply, such as Wuhan holding the Spring Housing Fair in May, and launching specific housing purchase subsidies, preferential policies, etc. during the Housing Fair, driving the popularity to rise. At the same time, there are 17 cities where the popularity continues to fall, of which the largest decline is Sanya, down more than 20%, with the arrival of summer, the weather turns hot, Sanya real estate market also entered the off-season, the heat dropped significantly.
Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xiamen and other hot cities in the early stage of the hot city of new housing have declined, on the one hand, the impact of the supply structure, on the other hand, due to the release of the early purchasing power concentration into a period of weakness, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities with the improvement of the concentrated market, customer demand diversion, the market is facing pressure.
In addition, based on the statistics of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, although the proportion of three-room attention in May is still the highest, it has a downward trend. The proportion of new housing products below 70 square meters and more than 300 square meters in each echelon city has increased, which shows that all echelon cities are facing the situation of weak mainstream market demand. In the future, the market will mainly be the rigid demand and the ultimate improvement demand.
Overall, the new housing market has gradually entered a cooling-off period, and the heat of the new housing brokerage business will also cool down.
In May, Hefei, Guiyang, Taiyuan and other 12 cities of new housing projects opened the index increased, of which Hefei has the highest appreciation value, brokerage industry operation benefited, on the one hand, the market itself opening index is not high, but the new supply is close to the impact of the waist, resulting in the index rising, on the other hand, it is also due to the difficulty of market decentralization, making new house sales more dependent on channels. The proportion of new housing project channels opened in five cities, including Hangzhou, Fuzhou and Zhongshan, decreased.
On the whole, the proportion of cities with an increase in the opening index of the new housing market in the key 40 cities increased slightly, and the new housing brokerage business operated smoothly and fluctuated less. However, due to the decline in market heat, the difficulty of transaction has increased, and the difficulty of actual payment collection of brokerage business has increased, and the prosperity of the industry has also been affected.
Third, second-hand housing: the city is clearly differentiated, and the listing time is extended
In May, the popularity of second-hand housing viewing in 40 key cities was further differentiated, according to the statistics of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, the popularity of 17 of the 40 cities rebounded month-on-month, and the popularity of 19 cities decreased. Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing rebounded by more than 10%, Sanya and Haikou fell by more than 10%, and other cities rose and fell within 10%.
Changzhou, Chengdu and other cities are mainly due to the high market heat in the early stage, and now with the gradual release of demand into the decline stage, Sanya and Haikou are mainly affected by seasonal reasons, and the popularity of second-hand houses and new houses has declined. The popularity of second-hand housing in Guangzhou, Suzhou, Hefei, Wuhan and other cities has rebounded briefly, on the one hand, due to the large decline in popularity in the early stage, and this month is a slight rebound after the big fall; On the other hand, it may be related to the decrease in the supply of the new housing market, and the popularity of the new housing market will decline, and the purchase demand of some customers will be diverted to the second-hand housing market.
Among the 40 key cities, only six cities, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Taiyuan, Guiyang, Fuzhou and Zhongshan, have shortened the shelf time, and the shelf time of second-hand houses in 31 cities has increased, of which Shanghai has increased the most.
Combined with the transaction status of second-hand housing, this situation is not caused by the acceleration of transactions, but more because the listing of second-hand houses in the city is still in addition, leveling the shelf cycle. In addition, the listing prices of second-hand houses in Wuhan, Taiyuan, Guiyang, Fuzhou and other cities have also declined, even in some core school districts.
In May, the overall shelf time of 40 key cities increased, fell for three consecutive months, and then increased again, indicating that the transaction cycle of second-hand housing transactions was extended, the difficulty increased, the market entered a state of stagnation again, and the wait-and-see mood of buyers gradually intensified.
At present, the second-hand housing market in 40 key cities is in the trend of increasing shelf volume, extending shelf time, and decreasing average listing price, and the supply and demand ends are gradually moving towards a stalemate, and the market may continue to explore the bottom twice. If the supply and demand structure is not improved in the future, it will not be conducive to the development of related brokerage business.
Due to the new housing market and the second-hand housing market has a certain linkage, the current "old for new" phenomenon in some cities, mainly new housing and second-hand market demand there is a certain price and product difference, in the future, if the city's new housing market and second-hand housing market supply and demand structure complementary, or will be conducive to the formation of a virtuous cycle of the market, if the new housing and second-hand housing market structure homogeneity is serious, it is a greater pressure on both markets, for the brokerage business as a whole will have an impact.
4. Analysis of typical cities
1. First-tier cities: Guangzhou and Shenzhen stabilize, north up and down
The prosperity trend of the brokerage industry in four first-tier cities this month diverged, of which Guangzhou and Shenzhen recovered this month, and Beijing and Shanghai showed a downward trend.
The relevant indicators of the new housing brokerage bank business in Guangzhou and Shenzhen remained stable, and the prosperity of the brokerage industry was mainly due to the rebound of the popularity of second-hand housing search, on the one hand, due to the large decline in popularity in the first two months, and on the other hand, it was also related to the large decline in the supply of new housing in the city, and the popularity of customers was diverted to second-hand housing.
However, from the transaction situation, Guangzhou and Shenzhen second-hand housing transactions have decreased month-on-month, the transaction volume of new houses in the second city has also shown a downward trend month-on-month, consumer confidence recovery is less than expected, the current support of the property market mainly comes from improvement and luxury housing demand, but these two sectors, especially the luxury housing sector, relative to the property market, has a relatively high independence, although the market and economic macro impact is relatively small, but its volume is not enough to support the stability of the real estate market. Overall, although the brokerage industry has a recovery trend compared with the previous month, the industry is still under pressure in the short and medium term.
The prosperity-related indicators of the brokerage industry in Beijing and Shanghai showed a downward trend. In terms of new housing, although many developers took advantage of the May Day holiday to increase their marketing efforts, the market heat is still declining. The second-hand housing market has also begun to show signs of cooling, and it is still an important consumption to replace "new", and as the pace of second-hand housing transactions slows down, it begins to slowly affect the transaction speed of new houses. Therefore, even if the supply of new homes increases in the future, the height of the market rebound is relatively limited.
At present, the enthusiasm of owners in the market is still high, the shelf volume remains high, the buyer's choice space is large, the transaction cycle in the market is extended, although the market transaction is better than the same period last year, but the backlog of housing demand in the early stage is weakened, and the market is still in the rapid cooling stage, all of which indicate that the current market wait-and-see sentiment is still relatively strong, and the willingness to enter the market is weak. Judging from the current market situation, it is expected to show repeated fluctuations. June and July are still the traditional off-season, the market heat is expected to still decline, and the brokerage industry prosperity may continue to decline in the short term.
Overall, although the prosperity index of the brokerage industry in the four cities has different trends this month, the underlying logic of the market is basically the same, affected by the macroeconomic environment, the demand-side expectation is uncertain, and the market is under pressure. Whether it is new housing brokerage business or second-hand housing brokerage business in first-tier cities, it is facing greater pressure in the short term, and it is difficult for the industry prosperity to fully recover in the short term.
2. Hefei: The rise in the opening index has driven the prosperity of the new housing brokerage business
The improvement in the prosperity of Hefei's real estate brokerage industry this month is mainly reflected in the rise in the new housing opening index, in addition to a slight rebound in the popularity of second-hand housing. The new housing market in May improvement projects and cost-effective projects concentrated in the market, but the overall supply plunged sharply, although the demand side of the transaction also declined, but the overall supply is in a state of phased short supply, and because the price of new houses is slightly lower than the price of second-hand houses, customers are diverted to new houses, coupled with the improvement of the new housing project opening index, which is conducive to the development of new housing brokerage business.
In terms of second-hand housing, due to the large increase in the number of listings in recent months, it is beneficial for the brokerage department to undertake the seller's business, but due to the large increase in supply and limited demand, the market has entered the buyer's market, and the overall market may enter the stage of trading deadlock.
3. Guiyang: Rebounded slightly after the sharp decline
In May, Guiyang's indicators related to the prosperity of the real estate brokerage industry have rebounded, the number of stores and brokers has increased, the popularity of new houses and the opening index of new housing projects have increased slightly, and the popularity of second-hand houses has also rebounded. This was mainly due to the sharp decline in various indicators in April and a moderate rebound in May, which pushed the prosperity up slightly compared with the previous month.
From May 1, Guiyang has implemented a number of new policies for the benefit of the people, including that houseless workers can withdraw provident fund to pay the down payment for the purchase of a house, and increase the maximum provident fund loan amount for the purchase of the first home by dual-deposited employee families.
However, from the transaction side, the property market fell rapidly after high growth in March, and the market transaction situation in May was barely the same as in April. The number of second-hand housing listings is also at a high level, customers are in a wait-and-see mood, and the market is in a sideways state in stages. For the real estate brokerage industry, there is still great pressure to conduct business.
Brief summary:
Overall, the market fell after the small peak in February and March, the recovery of the property market came to an abrupt end in April, and sales fell steadily in May, which has shown that the release of demand accumulated in the previous period has gradually come to an end. At present, the favorable stimulus effect of various policies is relatively limited, the macroeconomic recovery is relatively slow, and the follow-up market enters the traditional off-season, it is expected that the overall market will still be in the bottom-building stage, urban differentiation will continue, and the brokerage industry will also be under pressure.