Recently, Sany Electric Heavy Truck Magic Tower 1165 and DeepWay Deep to Star have completed the demonstration operation of long-distance trunk lines, and have been broadcast live online. Based on the official data released by the two models, according to the calculation formula of the heavy truck industry, commercial vehicle Bang analyzes whether electric heavy trucks are suitable for long-distance trunk transportation from five dimensions: technical route, transportation efficiency, timeliness, energy consumption cost and TCO.
Technical route
Sany electric heavy truck Magic Tower 1165 adopts large-capacity power battery, high endurance technical route, its matching power battery capacity has reached more than 1100 kWh, the route of this demonstration operation is from Changsha to Shenzhen, the whole 800 kilometers. With a total weight of 40.45 tons, the vehicle and cargo eventually traveled 817 kilometers, and the official energy consumption figure is 1.17 kWh/km. Since its average driving speed has not been announced, Merchant Vehicle Bang calculates according to its motor parameters (2 motors, peak power of 275 kW, peak torque of 850 Nm), and its economic speed should be controlled at 85-90km/h; According to the empirical formula of heavy truck energy consumption, the wind resistance of the vehicle consumes 30% of the power when driving at 90km/h, assuming that the total weight of the vehicle and cargo is increased to 49 tons, its energy consumption is 1.34 kWh/km, and the cruising range is 710 km. According to the official introduction, the energy density of its power battery can reach 139Wh/kg, according to 1165 kWh (kWh) conversion, the weight of its power battery is about 8.38 tons, and the weight of the tractor has reached 15 tons.
DeepWay uses low wind resistance design, new platform development, fast charging technical route, its matching power battery capacity of 466 kWh, the route of this demonstration operation is from Beijing to Shanghai, the whole distance is 1110 kilometers, the total weight of vehicles and goods is 49 tons, and finally after 4 intermediate charges, a total of 39 hours to reach. The official energy consumption is 1.36 kWh/km (speed 65-75km/h) and 1.51 kWh/km (speed 85-90km/h). According to the official introduction, the weight of the tractor is 11 tons.
These are two different technical routes, the advantage of Sany electric heavy truck Magic Tower 1165 is a long mileage on a single charge, but the disadvantages are also very obvious, its own weight is too heavy, about 4 tons heavier than the mainstream electric heavy truck, and the price of the whole vehicle is high. According to the price of lithium iron phosphate power battery 900 yuan / kWh estimated, the price of its power battery has reached 1.05 million yuan, according to the official introduction, the price of its tractor is about 1.9 million yuan, in the absence of any subsidies, right of way preferential policies, the purchase price has made many customers daunted; The advantage of DeepWay Deep Star is low wind resistance, the wind resistance coefficient is 0.35, while the current wind resistance coefficient of flat-headed heavy trucks is 0.51-0.56. In addition, there is a power exchange mode, which can replace the power battery in 6 minutes and last more than 300 kilometers. However, the power exchange method is to replace the power battery box from the lower part, and the structural complexity of the power exchange station is much higher than the current mainstream replacement method, and the construction cost of the same capacity of the power exchange station will inevitably increase slightly. At present, DeepWay has only built a demonstration exchange station in Tianjin, and there is no exchange station on the high-speed main road, and can only use charging methods to increase mileage. The two technical routes have their own advantages and disadvantages, and can only let "time and market" give an objective evaluation.
Transportation efficiency
Transportation efficiency refers to the weight of goods transported under the same fuel consumption, and is proportional to the transportation time, which is commonly interpreted as "Dora fast run". The weight of Sany electric heavy truck Mota 1165 has been as high as 15 tons, the weight of the 3-axle skeleton semi-trailer and container is expected to be 8 tons, the total weight of the vehicle cargo is 40.45 tons, the weight of the transported cargo is 17.5 tons, assuming its driving speed is 90km/h, this model is only suitable for express transportation or high value-added electronic products express transportation two scenarios, transportation efficiency is much lower than fuel heavy trucks. Compared with the current 6-axle total weight of 49 tons and 35 tons of loaded cargo, there is no competitive advantage in other transportation scenarios; DeepWay Deep to the stars of the weight of 11 tons, this test used 3-axle aluminum alloy lightweight semi-trailer weight of 6 tons, the total weight of the vehicle and cargo 49 tons, the weight of the transported goods is 32 tons, assuming that the future highway exchange station density can reach 200-300km, the driving speed is 90km/h, it can adapt to express, express, general cargo, green pass and other transportation scenarios, transportation efficiency and fuel heavy trucks are basically the same.
Timeliness
Timeliness refers to the time it takes to complete the same distance, and the shorter the time, the more time-sensitive it is. Since the Sany electric heavy truck Mota 1165 does not charge halfway, its driving speed can reach 90km/h, and the timeliness is basically the same as that of the fuel heavy truck; The DeepWay underwent 4 charges at 65-75km/h (in order to maintain speed with the comparison model), spending a total of 39 hours. According to the survey of commercial vehicles, the fastest Beijing-Shanghai special line transportation time is 17 hours. Assuming that the speed is 90km/h, after 4 charges, each charging time is 1 hour, it is estimated that its transportation time should reach more than 21 hours, the timeliness is slightly worse than that of fuel heavy trucks, and it is only suitable for general cargo transportation in the charging mode.
Energy costs
At present, the total weight of the 6-axle fuel heavy truck is 49 tons, and the average fuel consumption is 30 liters/100 kilometers, and the fuel cost per kilometer is 2.3 yuan according to the calculation of diesel 7.5 yuan / liter. The power consumption of Sany electric heavy truck Mota 1165 converted to a total weight of 49 tons is 1.34 kWh/km, and its electricity fee per kilometer is 2 yuan according to the current fast charging fee of 1.5 yuan / kWh; DeepWay's electricity consumption is 1.51 kWh/km, and the electricity cost per kilometer is 2.3 yuan. It can be seen that if the electric heavy truck uses a commercial fast charging pile, the energy consumption cost is basically the same as that of the fuel heavy truck, and there is no competitive advantage. If you build your own fast charging pile, calculated according to the commercial electricity consumption of 1 yuan / kWh, plus night charging discounts, electric heavy trucks have a certain competitive advantage over fuel heavy trucks, saving 0.8-1 yuan per kilometer. According to the calculation of driving 200,000 kilometers per year, it can save 160,000-200,000 yuan in energy costs.
TCO analysis
The official price of Sany electric heavy truck Magic Tower 1165 is about 1.9 million yuan, while the current mainstream long-distance trunk logistics fuel heavy truck price is 450,000 yuan, the former is 4 times that of the latter. If Sany Electric Heavy Truck Magic Tower 1165 can save 160,000-200,000 yuan in energy consumption costs and 20,000 yuan in maintenance costs, it is expected that TCO balance will be reached in 7 years. At this time, the electric heavy truck has driven 1.4 million kilometers, and the current B10 life of the electric heavy truck is about 1.2 million kilometers, while the fuel heavy truck is 1.8 million kilometers. Since DeepWay did not announce the official price and the cost of building the swap station on each vehicle, it was impossible to make a TCO calculation.
In the short term, electric heavy trucks have not reached a balance point in the market ownership, and when the supporting facilities are not perfect, they run long-distance trunk line transportation, and their TCO has no competitive advantage. This is a "chicken or egg" problem, and when the price of power batteries declines in the future, the density of fast charging piles increases, and the price of diesel continues to rise, electric heavy trucks will have a competitive advantage in the market.
From the perspective of future development trends, the price of power batteries will continue to decline, assuming that it reaches 300-400 yuan / kWh, the price of Sany electric heavy truck Magic Tower 1165 can be reduced to about 1 million yuan (calculated by annual sales of 20,000 units), users can reach the TCO balance point in 2.5 years, and earn 600,000-1 million yuan more in the later 3-5 years; From the perspective of the density increase of the substation station, assuming that the highway can reach a density of 200-300km, the timeliness of DeepWay will be greatly improved, and in theory, it can travel more than 1500km a day, and the transportation efficiency and timeliness will have a strong market competitive advantage.