In the past two months, whether it is a new house or a second-hand housing market, it is not good, and whenever this happens, there will always be some "magical" sales routines.
Last year, in the marvel of "wheat for house, garlic for house", a few days ago Hangzhou has real estate to buy a house can take gold, up to 2 kilograms of gold, which is equivalent to 450,000. Although it has been stopped, it can actually reflect how cold the current market is and how anxious developers are.
And the more the trough of the market, the closer it is to the introduction of big moves~
Domestic demand is insufficient, and exports have plummeted
Last Friday (June 9), the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data, and the CPI (national consumer price) in May fell by 0.2% month-on-month and rose 0.2% year-on-year, and the downward pressure has not eased. PPI (National Industrial Producer Factory Price) continued to bottom, falling 0.9% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year, the lowest value since 2016.
The performance of the two sets of data shows that the CPI has not eased in the downward pressure, the PPI is mired in the shrinking demand, the people do not spend money, and the factory can only continue to reduce the allocation contraction.
Before we always said that domestic demand was insufficient, but according to the latest data, external demand is also weak.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, exports fell 7.5% year-on-year in US dollar terms, down 16% from April. In renminbi terms, exports fell 0.8% year-on-year in May, down 17.6% from April.
Exports turned from positive to negative, and the growth rate fell sharply, reflecting the serious contraction of external demand. Export and consumption, the two carriages that drive the economy are stalled.
The economy is not good, everyone's eyes are aimed at stimulating domestic demand or investment, no matter which head bears the brunt of real estate. But now the pessimism in the real estate market is still spreading, and hundreds of billions of housing enterprises are lined up to delist.
The overall supply and demand of the market are weak, the monthly performance of the top 100 housing enterprises last month decreased by 14.3% month-on-month, and only 200 of the top 100 housing companies increased month-on-month, and the purchasing power of the market is still confident that they are hovering at a low level.
The expression has changed: countercyclical adjustment
The economic environment is not good, superimposed on the serious shortage of demand, will definitely be adjusted from the monetary policy, last Thursday the first punch will not first "hammer" the deposit rate, cut interest rates again. Interest rates were cut on Thursday, and Friday's economic data came out less than expected, as we said in last week's article.
Now the support for private enterprises is also mentioned again and again, which is a bit of a "reminiscence" feeling.
First, the relevant departments in Shanghai issued a document to allow private enterprises to participate in the trillion-yuan new infrastructure project. Secondly, Li Yunze, director of the State Financial Regulatory Administration last week, specially proposed at the "Lujiazui Forum" to optimize the private financing environment, strengthen the financial services of private enterprises, and protect the passion for the development of private enterprises.
It also means that vigorous blood transfusion should be carried out for private enterprises, after all, stabilizing the survival and development of private enterprises is to stabilize the basic plate of employment and people's livelihood.
Another incident happened last Friday, the latest statement on monetary policy by the governor of the central bank, Yi Gang, when he was researching in Shanghai. When referring to the relationship between monetary policy and economic cycles, the expression has changed, and he uses the seven words "strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment" instead of "do a good job of cross-cyclical adjustment".
The central bank's monetary policy committee meets quarterly and issues a circular to convey the latest signals on monetary policy. In the fourth quarter of last year, it was expressed as "strengthening cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment", while in the first quarter of this year, it was "doing a good job in cross-cyclical adjustment".
Generally, when emphasizing "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustment", it often means that in the face of downward pressure on the economy, overall measures such as reducing the reserve requirement, cutting interest rates, and increasing the money supply may be adopted, and tend to "increase the intensity of regulation and control". Just like after the release of the circular in the fourth quarter of last year, the result was a RRR reduction in the first quarter of this year, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in the broad sense also increased.
In the first quarter of this year, it emphasized "doing a good job in cross-cycle adjustment", that is, the policy observation period, focusing on structural policies and directional policies. Monetary policy in the market is still accommodative, but it will not slam on the gas pedal anymore.
Last week, the monetary policy was changed to "counter-cyclical", which is related to the cooling of the economy since April.
Now whether it is data feedback or interaction with everyone in the live broadcast room, you can feel that everyone's overall mentality is not very good, it is easy to be disturbed by external emotions, and they are unwilling to consume and invest.
On the one hand, the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 is as high as 20%, on the other hand, in May this year, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Jinan and other places have successively issued online car saturation warnings, and even some cities have suspended the acceptance of new business of online car hailing transportation permits.
Industries such as food delivery and ride-hailing may have been used as a guarantee industry after losing unemployment in middle age, but since the beginning of this year, the industry has become younger and younger, and even a large number of women have appeared, which is not a good phenomenon.
Prepare for the positive
In the face of the current situation, it is natural to go all out to fight for the economy and stabilize the overall economic market.
The key point to strengthening counter-cyclical adjustment now is to continue to promote the rebound of the stock of social financing.
The next move is likely to reduce the reserve requirement and interest rates, including for real estate, will also increase support, do not mention the property market to think of house price rise, this time, the pattern is more important, otherwise everyone game over.
The current LPR interest rate has not moved for 9 consecutive months, combined with last week's fixed deposit interest rate reduction, it may create space for the next LPR interest rate and loan interest rate reduction. The surprise sent to the market by the central mother may have entered the countdown stage~