Today's central bank "cut interest rates", bonds fell wildly, AI soared, and after the market came out Bloomberg's "package of policies" small composition, the RMB exchange rate rebounded, the market was quite lively, talk about the market, see if there is a policy bullet to come out?
1. Let's talk about the "interest rate cut" itself, and the 30-year Treasury bond ETF that happened to be listed today.
On Friday, Chairman Yi Gang of the central bank came to Shanghai and stressed the need to "strengthen countercyclical adjustment."
Today, the central bank is moving.
In the morning, the central bank announced that it would reduce the 7-day reverse repurchase winning interest rate from 2% to 1.9% by 0.1%.
This is the first time the central bank has lowered the rate in 10 months, after a total of two cuts last year.
Explain this matter, please ignore it.
Helped everyone find a picture.
Our domestic interest rate system and regulatory framework are first based on the policy interest rate of the central bank, then transmitted to the market benchmark interest rate, and finally form the market interest rate, and the change of the market interest rate ultimately affects the income change of the fixed income financial management and fixed income fund we buy.
Today, the central bank through OMO (Open Market Operation) lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, that is, the price of 7-day funds lent by the central bank to commercial banks (only some banks with primary dealer qualifications in open market business can be), which is 0.1% cheaper, and this reduction will eventually be transmitted to the market price.
For example, after today's central bank announcement, the one-year interbank deposit certificate issued by the bank has followed up a lot, you can understand that my XX bank borrowed 0.1% cheaper from the largest large amount of money from the central bank, then the money I borrowed from others does not have to be so expensive.
Therefore, when you open the App tonight, the interbank certificate of deposit index fund bought in the early stage should skyrocket.
Moreover, everyone listens to fund companies selling certificates of deposit index funds, and the sales will say to you:
The yield of interbank certificates of deposit is in an interest rate corridor, the top is the price of MLF, the bottom is the price of DR007 plus points, and now after the OMO is lowered, because the price of DR007 fluctuates around OMA, the yield of interbank certificates of deposit is also opened.
Although it has fallen more today, but there is no upward factor in the short term, if you want to buy a certificate of deposit index fund, wait for the last week of June, when the capital is slightly tight, and the short-end interest rate has risen, the experience may be better.
The fundamentals of the economy are relatively weak, to some extent, in a downward cycle, so the central bank should strengthen the "counter-cyclical adjustment".
Now, the market expects that the 200 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility, which is one-year funds lent by the central bank to commercial banks) will expire on Thursday and may also be lowered.
After adjusting the MLF, it is further expected that the LPR (Loan Prime Rate, loan market quotation rate) on the 20th will also be reduced, and the mortgage interest rate will eventually be reduced, to see if it can stimulate the enthusiasm for buying a house.
Long-end bond rates have also fallen wildly.
10-year treasury bonds fell sharply by 4bps, and more sensitive treasury bond futures also rose sharply, 30-year treasury futures rose 0.46%, 10-year treasury futures rose 0.28%, and 10-year treasury futures have broken the previous high, as shown below.
Today's most favored in the whole market, I am afraid that the following 30-year treasury bond ETF, listed on the first day today, the result of the central bank "interest rate cut", 30-year treasury bond futures ushered in the largest one-day increase since listing, today's turnover rate of 50%, may suddenly be concerned about to increase.
Therefore, the success of a bond product is, of course, inseparable from the fund company's own efforts, but the core still depends on the face of the central mother...
The variety of bond ETFs in the market is a very subdivided track, including the circle of friends issued by a brother who looks at Ping An Fund today, and their 0-3 CDB ETF has exceeded 2 billion for the first time, tripling in 3 months.
The other largest bond ETF, EFORTIS' short-term ETF, also broke 20 billion for the first time this month.
This year, my cousin judged that on the one hand, there may be three credit bond-related ETFs, because the supply is not increasing, and the demand is expanding, there will be a step; On the other hand, a major trend in the next few years is that there are a large number of insurance funds, as well as some other institutional funds, whether equity or fixed income, investment will begin to try, from active management to passive index.
My cousin said last time that there is a chance to pick up the doorway inside this variety alone, and if the MLF rate is lowered on Thursday, we will nag about this.
At the end of last week, Everbright Securities Fixed Income's article, "The current 10Y Treasury bond yield has been significantly low", said that the lowest point of last year's 10-year treasury bond was 2.58%, and the lowest point of last year's monthly average was 2.67% (August and September last year), while as of last week, the 10-year treasury bond yield was 2.67%, the article said that it was already low, and the result was completely broken through today.
Of course, I believe that the lower the interest rate, the more panicked the small partners who do and sell debt will be.
Because everyone habitually judges that there is always a bottom in interest rates, this also means that there are not a few BPs left in their "career".
Around the end of the afternoon, a small essay in yellow on a black background came out, saying that today's interest rate cut is the first step, and the GOV is considering a package of policy measures to promote the economy to stabilize and recover.
If interest rates are accompanied by fundamentals this year, first down and then up, and then another wave of upward movement at the end of the year, then this year may be the same as last year, and it will be a busy year, and a wave of redemptions at the end of the year.
Let's see if there are any big moves in the back.
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Talk about rights.
2. Nikkei 225 broke 33,000 points, a new high since the 90s.
Not commenting, it's too much.
3. The NASDAQ 100 soared, the NASDAQ Technology soared, and S&P Information Technology's floor products jumped 5.6%.
Not commenting, it's too much.
Today, I talked with the general chop of the ETF section of a stock trading software.
This year, China and the United States are actually AI+, both are technology stocks.
It is a pity that the weight of our mainstream index technology equity is too low, and we have become famous in another (vertical) finger (sub).
4. I have a big A share, and the ChatGPT index has reached a new high! AI and media led the rise.
If interest rates are further cut, because the inversion of interest rate differentials between China and the United States (the United States is high, we are low, funds are going to the United States) is getting more and more serious, in fact, the pressure on the exchange rate is great.
Today, both onshore and offshore renminbi fell by nearly 200 basis points, and then after the small Bloomberg essay came out, it quickly converged.
The renminbi has fallen nearly 3 points against the dollar this year, down nearly 7 points from the strongest node before the Spring Festival.
That is, buy the NASDAQ this year, even if the NASDAQ does not move, the exchange rate part earns, it can outperform the wind full A.
And if interest rates continue to be cut this round, it will be more beneficial to growth stocks.
Today, the ChatGPT index broke the previous high in early April and reached a new high! The figure below, this year's 93% increase, almost doubled, so our AI is not worse than the American AI.
The TMT sector was led by computers, media, electronics, and the related media ETF (512980) rose 3.27%, and has rebounded 15 points in the past three weeks, and is about to double the lowest point.
The core is that there are several large models to be released in June, as shown below.
According to the trend of U.S. stocks, the strongest main line this year may still lie in AI+, and China Special Estimate can only avoid its edge.