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Two days ago, Zhang Songwen was a little depressed and even lost sleep.
One day Guo Fan showed him a video of a foreigner's performance, and then asked him: "How do you think he acted?" ”
Zhang Songwen said: "The performance is very good, quite heartfelt. ”
Then Guo Fan told him that this was an actor made by AI.
Then Guo Fan looked at him proudly and said, "This is the challenge of the future." ”
So that night, Zhang Songwen lost sleep.
At an event in Shenzhen two days ago, he sighed and said:
"I wondered, will there be a day when the actor industry will not exist?
Because it can replicate countless very real people, and even copy me, he can replace my performance.
I'm thinking, AI is so perfect, it really can do everything, how can I fight it in this era? ”
Do you think Zhang Songwen's worries are superfluous?
Last weekend I happened to attend a client-hosted AI conference, where OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman answered that question.
He believes that within a decade there could be very powerful AI systems, and we need to be ready immediately.
It was Altman's first public speaking in China since ChatGPT's popularity.
However, other guests at the meeting also expressed different views, but one thing seemed certain:
AI will not replace people, but those who will not use AI will be eliminated.
Imagine a future war where, based on calculations and estimates by AI, the commander-in-chief is advised to sacrifice a large number of citizens or their interests to save more people.
How should you, as the commander-in-chief, make decisions?
If you veto such sacrifices, how can your reasons stand?
This is a question Kissinger asks in his new book, The Age of Artificial Intelligence and the Future of the Times.
Yes, you read that right, it was Kissinger, the diplomat who facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.
Henry kissinger
You may be the same as my first reaction, what does a politician have to do with artificial intelligence?
I guess he didn't use a computer until he was 60, and he hadn't heard of artificial intelligence until he was 80.
Why did he co-write the book at the age of 100 with former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and MIT School of Computer Science Dean Daniel Huttenlocher?
Because as he calls for in his book:
"We are entering a new era in which the rational mind of man is relinquishing its primacy as sole discoverer, knower and classifier of world phenomena.
The existing philosophical concepts and social institutions of mankind caught us off guard in the face of this revolution. ”
What does that mean?
For example, humans are like experienced teachers who feel that they can't keep busy, so they hire a small apprentice to help.
At the beginning, the teacher taught the little apprentice hand-in-hand, but he didn't expect that this little apprentice was a prodigy, never forgetting, teaching it, and being diligent.
If you are a teacher, you are panicking now?
Do you also have to weigh it: how can I make sure that the little apprentice does not rob his job?
The teacher did not think so, but for a reason.
As the book says:
Although AI can draw conclusions, make predictions, and make decisions, it is not self-aware, in other words, it does not have the ability to reflect on its role in the world.
It has no intention, motivation, morality, or emotion, but even without these attributes, it may develop different and unexpected ways to achieve its assigned goals. But inevitably, it will change humanity and the environment in which they live.
When a person grows with it or trains with it, he may be induced or even subconsciously personify it, treating it as a companion.
Are each of these three extremely scary?
That is why Kissinger appealed: "AI will reshape global security and world order, don't wait until the crisis to start paying attention." ”
You may say, then why does the teacher have to hire the little apprentice, and dismiss him?
Well, the teacher is already inseparable from the little apprentice.
In many ways, AI's powerful learning capabilities are beyond the reach of humans.
In many fields, including medical treatment and health, the benefits it can bring to human beings are also immeasurable.
So, going back is certainly not an option, the only option is how to establish an internationally agreed regulatory mechanism.
As Professor Max Tegmark, founder of the MIT Future Life Institute, said at the end of the conference:
Let artificial intelligence empower humans, not crush them.
Empower us, not over power us.
Altman, for example, suggested at the conference that an AI system could be tried to assist humans in supervising other AI systems.
In other words, it is to train another powerful little apprentice and let him supervise the lawless guy specifically.
Do you think it's feasible? (Share your thoughts in the comments section)
Sam Altman, co-founder of OpenAI
According to Google calculations, there are currently about 300 million books in the world, and in three years, machines can learn all the books in the world.
So how exactly do machines learn? Why does it learn so quickly?
Machines learn through a method called "deep learning" and do it through the brains of AI.
The brain of AI also has neurons, which are interconnected.
It looks like this:
Therefore, in terms of learning speed, you must not be able to catch up with the machine.
However, Professor Yann LeCun, one of the three giants of "deep learning", believes that people are always easily fooled by the speed of AI, but ignore the important point:
That is, AI still lacks common sense. 。
For example, one of my trainees once told me that he was asked this perverted question during an interview: "The boss's zipper is open, do you want to remind him?" How to remind? ”
Let's see how ChatGPT answers?
Be patient and respectful: Use a kind and respectful tone to make sure your reminder doesn't offend him.
Remind him privately: Find a suitable time to talk to him in private, rather than publicly reminding him in front of everyone. This avoids embarrassment and unnecessary attention.
Direct but gentle: Directly indicate that the zipper is open, but at the same time be gentle. You can say, "Boss, sorry to remind you that your zipper is open."
Suggest a solution: After alerting him, you can suggest that he take action to fix the problem, such as finding a place to fix it quietly.
Respect his decision: Some may appreciate your reminder and deal with the problem immediately, while others may think that this is not a big problem.
Does it look presentable?
The only problem is that the answer lacks "common sense" — if your boss is about to give a speech on stage, no one will know they're unzipped and think it's not a problem.
Therefore, as far as today, artificial intelligence is still far from the ability of human beings to think systematically and continuously deduce.
Even Altman believes that "it's much easier to understand the neural networks of AI than it is to understand the human brain." ”
If even a dramatist like Zhang Songwen is worried about losing his job, then as ordinary people, how can we fight against AI?
In my opinion, there are a few things that can be done:
1. Learn English well
There was no simultaneous interpretation for that day's meeting, just AI translation on the big screen. A visual accuracy rate of 70% is good.
Even so, many people sat on the ground and insisted on listening. Many students surrounded the foreign professors after the meeting.
I was touched to see this. There are so many studious young people in our country, this is our hope!
And those who call for not having to learn English anymore are either bad or stupid!
Learning English well allows us to get effective information quickly.
And whoever can grasp the information will grasp the future.
2. Think deeply
If machines can do deep learning, can we take full advantage of the unique ability of the human brain to solve complex problems?
And to do that requires deep thinking.
It's like when I listen to Yann talk about his big model, I can understand it for the first ten minutes, and then as soon as I get on the PPT, I can't understand it.
Also, people are Turing Award winners, is that the Nobel of the computer world?
But I still desperately want to see some patterns from the circles, blocks, and formulas in the PPT.
I was thinking, if I write an article about artificial intelligence, what will I write?
Deep thinking is a deep stretch of one's own thinking.
This means stepping out of your comfort zone, getting in touch with areas you're not normally familiar with, and diving into it.
One of the three giants of "deep learning", Turing Award winner Yann LeCun
However, as stated in the book "The Age of Artificial Intelligence and the Future of the Era":
"Today's almost constant stream of media increases the cost of thinking, which reduces the frequency of thinking."
In other words, humans have become less and less brainy.
And smart businessmen have long been aware of this, and they use powerful algorithms and all kinds of eye-catching things to satisfy our lazy and stimulating brains.
3. Be alone
Last week, after the hot incident of "holding hands on the door" that overwhelmed the college entrance examination in the limelight, in less than 24 hours, the "dismissal dress" on Miss Dong's body had sold 3,000 pieces.
I wondered, is the person who bought it really going to wear it, or what?
"The digital world has little patience for wisdom, and its values are shaped by praise rather than introspection."
Five hundred years ago, the Western philosopher Descartes once said: "I think, therefore I am";
In the era of artificial intelligence, how can we "think"?
In the book, the three authors also give their answer - alone.
The internet has allowed users to drown in the opinions of thousands, if not millions, of other users, depriving them of the sense of solitude they need to keep thinking.
Historically, it was this sense of solitude that gave birth to a belief in knowledge.
As the sense of solitude disappears, so does the spirit of perseverance.
Leave space in our lives and create some alone time, only then can we think deeply.
Think about the book Kissinger wrote at 99 and was published at 100.
You, me, still have a long way to go.
It doesn't hurt to live to be old, learn to be old, and slow down.
At the end of his speech, Zhang Songwen said:
"Because I had insomnia the night before, I woke up very early in the morning, and I stayed in bed for a long time, and I couldn't open my eyes.
I suddenly found that I also have my inertia and my cleverness.
I was thinking, AI is so perfect, but we humans are becoming more real because of our own flaws. This is exactly what AI technology cannot do. ”
Cover/"Her" movie stills
Illustration / Stills from the films "Machine Butler", "After Yang", "My Robot Girlfriend"
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