May data fell short of expectations
May CPI -0.2% m/m and +0.2% y/y (prior: 0.1%), below expectations of 0.3%
May PPI -0.9% m/m and -4.6% y/y (prior-3.6%), below expectations of -4.3%
CPI and PPI are not as expected, indicating that the release of consumer demand is insufficient, the revenue boom of the enterprise side continues to decline, the overall demand is still not good, urgently need policy stimulation, this week's interest rate cut can actually stimulate CPI to a certain extent. The downturn of PPI is also more likely to trigger policy easing and lower interest rates, so we need to pay more attention to the industry prosperity when choosing industries.
Meso industry prosperity model
Inflection point varieties (boom running to the "bottom level"): semiconductors, consumer electronics, communication equipment
Elastic varieties (boom running to the "climbing position"): panels, games, thermal power, chemicals, home appliances
The prosperity of the industry is in a downhill position: coal, industrial metals, agrochemicals
Under the medium-view prosperity model, three high-win rate logic screening: electronics (AI + Apple MR), thermal power (electricity price marketization), media (AI + Apple MR + medium special assessment), communication (AI), alternative chemicals, and home appliances.
1. There is no weak recovery from price increases + abundant residual liquidity
2. The stock game situation is difficult to break before potential internal and external policy changes in Q3 and the valuation anchor switch, and the public offering chips are still the winners
3. The month-on-month improvement of prosperity under weak recovery is not scarce, the key lies in certainty and elasticity, and the variety with independence is better if the business cycle does not depend on the intensity of recovery
5 characteristics of the market entering the bottom
1, the policy bottom and the market bottom appear first
I have summarized a law of our A-share policy bottom → market bottom
The stock market fell→ fund managers shouted optimistic about the value of long-term A-share investment→ the stock market continued to fall→ fund companies began to buy their own funds→ the stock market continued to fall→ policy bottom appeared (such as leaders expressing optimistic views on the stock market, RRR cut, interest rate cut, Guo Jia team entered), → market over-bearish rebound→ continued to fall→ market bottom appeared → profit bottom continued to →rise
2. See the land price in terms of land quantity
At the bottom of every history, the trading volume is very small, and there are still more than 900 billion in the two cities, which is not yet met
3. The market must be followed by a panic kill
Many times, before the real bottom arrives, there will be a wave of killing and falling for no reason, and no specific bearish news can be found, such as some early strong stocks have made up for the decline, and this law has been in line with this law in recent days
4. New hotspots appear
The market has a new and sustained money-making hot spot, or a new growth stock that represents a new round of industrial direction, quietly and orderly began to rise
5, moving average long arrangement
Because of the involvement of bottom-reading funds, although the long-term moving average system is still a short arrangement, in the short term, the moving average system will become a long arrangement, such as the 5, 10, 20-day moving average turning up
Complete stock market decline→ upward cycle chart
The time-sharing chart specifically notes: 1. The time-sharing chart is based on the closing data of the CSI 300 and simulates the impact of large capital inflows and outflows on the index. 2, the yellow and white line has no meaning, just refer to the general trend
3, the accuracy rate is general, 5 days chart, up to 3 days 4, the time-sharing chart is only for your reference, can not be used as any investment basis 5, the stock market has great risk, investment needs extreme caution
In order for everyone to understand the forecast chart more intuitively, I specially bought a red water pen
Monday's time-sharing chart is only for long-term interactive shareholders and leaders