Reproduce the miracle of Emperor Zhan's 16-year turnover? Tencent netizens nearly 90% are bearish 5 disadvantages, detailed explanation, the heat is out of drama

Beijing time on June 10, is there still a miracle? While the Nuggets lost their home-court advantage in the first two games of the Finals, they came to the road and won two games in a row, extending the total score to 3-1 to claim the match point, one step away from winning the first championship in team history. On the other hand, the Heat have been pushed to the edge of the cliff by losing the game point, can they replicate the miracle of James leading the Cavaliers to a 1-3 comeback in 2016? Tencent News netizens are close to 90% are not optimistic, the Heat have been in the downside in multiple dimensions, they can no longer make people see the hope of turning over, and the fourth runner-up in team history is close at hand.

In the G4 game of the Finals, the Nuggets actually gave the Heat a chance, after all, Jokic suffered two crises in G4, one was Jokic sprained his right ankle in the middle of the first quarter, and the other was Jokic was replaced with five fouls at the beginning of the final quarter. It's just that when Jokic was affected, but even if the Heat once under Butler's leadership, the first half of the final quarter chased only 5 points, but after Jokic went off the court and was pulled away again, it was finally unable to return to the sky and lose again, putting themselves in a desperate situation of 1-3 behind, it is no wonder that public opinion is not optimistic about the Heat to turn over against the wind.

1. The historical law proves that the probability of a 1-3 reversal is only 2.8%.

The importance of the Finals G4 to the Heat is self-evident, winning means chasing a 2-2 draw and returning to the same running line to drag into the battle to win the game point of Tianwang Mountain.

It's just sorry that the Heat didn't seize the opportunity of the key game, and losing meant that they had to go to the G5 with 1-3, which was almost a "death sentence" that could be pronounced in advance for the Heat.

There have been 36 3-1 leads in NBA Finals history, with only the 73-win over the Warriors in 2016, who lost three straight games and were defeated by James-led Cavaliers, and the remaining 35 teams leading 3-1 won championships, so the probability of a 1-3 comeback is only as low as 2.8%.

As for the last two Finals 3-1 situations, the 2019 and 2020 Finals were respectively, but the Raptors and Lakers at that time only lost one more game, and in the end, they were both six 4-2 battles, defeating the Warriors and Heat to win the championship respectively.

2, Butler + Adebayo is difficult to compare with 16 years Zhan Huang + Owen.

The 2016 Cavaliers trailed 3-1 in the first four games of the Finals, and met the all-time Cosmic Braves, who won 73 games in the regular season, but they won three consecutive games to turn around against the wind. The pillars of the Cavaliers' turnaround victory that year were the Big Three, especially the super performances of James and Irving.

James and Irving had a magical performance of 40+ in the same game in the Finals, James showed his all-round performance and ability to lead the team to the fullest, and Irving hit the winning three-point shot in the final moments of the seven-game game.

Today's Heat is a civilian team, even with the combination of Butler and Adebayo, but Butler has been no longer magical since his second-round ankle sprain. Adebayo is simply unable to compete with Jokic, so the Heat's duo with a bunch of undrafted drafts, after all, they are not the 2016 Jan-O combination, basically unable to replicate the former Cavaliers' turnaround miracle.

3. The gap between the Heat and the Nuggets' overall strength is difficult to make up.

The Heat fought back all the way to the Finals in Black Eight mode, but it proved hopeless to create the miracle of winning the Black Eight championship for the first time in history. In 1999, the Knicks advanced to the Finals, losing 4-1 to the Spurs with Duncan + David Robinson, and the Heat are likely to replicate the Knicks' old model.

There is a significant gap between the overall strength of the Heat and the Nuggets, whether it is the quality of the superstar level or the configuration of role players, the Heat have a big gap in strength and talent. When the gap in strength is too large, any adjustments are difficult to make up, even if they have championship coach Spoelstra.

4, Hiro will not be able to become a savior even if the G5 comeback.

Coach Spall has played their hole cards, and some of the changes and adjustments have been used, which also proves that they cannot shake the Nuggets in the face of the absolute strength gap.

Hiro is expected to become the "surprise soldier" of the Heat, but from the rumored comeback of G3 to the fact that G4 has not returned now, will Hiro make a comeback in G5? Even if Hiro comes back next, he obviously can't become the savior of the Heat.

Hiro's delay in coming back means that he has not fully recovered, and even if he is forced to comeback, it is difficult to change the overall situation, especially Hiro averaged 20+ per game in the regular season, but his past playoff performance is not very good, and it is unrealistic to expect him to return to the savior.

5. The right time and place and all factors have tended to nuggets.

When the Finals have reached the current stage, both sides are already playing their cards, and the Nuggets are now in the right place. The Nuggets' 3-1 lead is in high morale, and the next game is back at home, and they have lost only one home game in this year's playoffs.

As for the Nuggets' current core roster stability and health, even if Jokic G4 has a slight foot, it will not have much impact, especially if there are two days off. The Nuggets are fighting in the G4 Finals, and the Heat are basically unable to see any hope of a turnaround.

The Nuggets are just one win away from their first championship in franchise history, and the Heat's seventh trip to the Finals is coming to an end, and they are close to being the fourth runner-up in franchise history.

(Text/Drunken Lying Float)