U.S. stocks have been bullish recently, and this week they have risen again, doesn't the textbook say that a rise in U.S. interest rates will make the stock market fall? Why is it still in the bull market? Since they are a bull market, is it still time to invest in US stocks? What should I think of A-shares?
Looking back at this week's market conditions, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3230.07 points on Monday and closed at 3231.41 points on Friday, up 0.04%, the ChiNext Index opened at 2233.27 points on Monday and closed at 2143.01 points on Friday, up -4.04%, the Dow Jones index closed the week at 33876.78 points, up 0.34%, and the S&P 500 closed at 4298.86 points on the week, up 0.39%, The Nasdaq closed the week at 13,259.14 points, up 0.14%. From the data point of view, U.S. stocks continued to strengthen after rising 2% last week, which is a technical bull market, A-shares have diverged this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index has basically unchanged, but the ChiNext has hit a three-year low. The question is, there is a bull market with such high interest rates in the United States, why are we going like this?
Take a look at the main performance of the market this week. The situation of funds in and out is as follows: [Note: This is the average increase of the sector, not the increase of the sector index]
From the perspective of market operation this week, the leading sectors with large trading volume are media and entertainment (164.9 billion), Internet (296.1 billion), communication equipment (239.6 billion), construction (114.3 billion), and the top sectors with turnover rate (more than 10%) are Internet (28.55%), media and entertainment (20.32%), hotel and catering (15.52%), tourism (13.56%), communication equipment (13.50%). The two intersect in the direction of media entertainment and the Internet, and the same hot spots as last week, I think there is a clear continuity of funds, which belongs to the structured bull market stage.
The leading sectors with large trading volume are chemical (130.7 billion), industrial machinery (156.8 billion), electrical equipment (309.9 billion), health care (103.1 billion), the leading sector with a high turnover rate (more than 10%) was not found, but electrical equipment (last week's transaction of 297 billion), industrial machinery (last week's transaction of 159.7 billion), continued to weaken this week, I think there is a clear outflow effect of funds, belonging to the stage of structured energy market.
From the publicly available capital situation, northbound funds bought 1.730 billion yuan this week, and the financing balance (borrowing money to speculate on stocks) was mainly net outflow throughout the week, with a net inflow of -3.302 billion; the balance of securities lending (selling stocks and shorting) increased by -5.044 billion from last week. Overall, this week's capital is dominated by a net outflow, of which domestic capital inflow is about -8 billion (last week's inflow of about 5 billion), northbound capital inflow of about 2 billion (last week inflow of about 5 billion), although northbound funds inflow, but this inflow is not much different from no inflow, the key is that the two financing funds in the market this week are based on reducing positions, whether the capital is good or not, you can know at a glance, let alone the general retail investors.
Finally, look at the trading volume: the average daily trading volume of this Friday is 894.9 billion, which is a relative volume level, in this case, the northbound funds did not express their position (neutral view), the two financing funds are exiting the market, can maintain a certain structured bull market (media, Internet direction), I think it is already a very strong market, this trading volume and market environment, it is not realistic to have a comprehensive rebound.
Many people also wonder, the United States is obviously raising interest rates, textbooks say that stocks will fall in the interest rate hike cycle, feel that the root reality is completely different, why is this the case?
I think that not only will the interest rate hike not cause the stock to fall, but the interest rate cut will not cause the stock to rise, and this also has a correct reaction in the A-share market: every RRR cut and interest rate cut, most of them are high and low, and even a sharp adjustment occurs. In this case, I think we should respect the facts, textbooks are only academic opinions, they are not necessarily right, especially the knowledge imported from Europe and the United States, which is also flawed in itself, so it will cause economic crises (1973, 1987, 1997, 2008). Even if the foreign economic schools are summarized, there are 9 university schools, and the Marxist political economy school and the Keynesian economic school are only two of them. We should not be bound by interest rate hikes and rate cuts, if we see this market continue to be vibrant, continue to be optimistic; If you see that this market is dull, just continue to avoid it. Don't go against the market, otherwise Graham (Buffett's teacher), the father of securities analysis, will end up bankrupt.
So the next market is really easy to do, where to go bullish, continue to be bullish (such as US stocks, A-share artificial intelligence sector), where to continue to be down, continue to be bearish, do not intervene (such as industrial machinery, electrical equipment, etc. that are still weak in the past two weeks).
Before looking ahead to next week's A-shares, let's revisit last week's market view, which was seen like this:
Market pessimism spread and did not change, the incremental capital inflow was not obvious, and it was still defensive until the signal of a large inflow of funds appeared! (single-day volume, the market is generally rising) Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out near the 60-week line, but the MACD dead cross has become a match, combined with no incremental funds, it may take a while to digest this pressure, even if the index rises, it is estimated that it is only a technical repair of the 5-week line of the counter-pump, willing to do the over-fall rebound can try, after the counter-draw in place, to decisively leave the market (except for incremental funds). ChiNext pointed out that this week's record low and bottomed out to end the weekly line of 7 consecutive negatives, but obviously lacked strength. If the 5-week line can be recovered next week, then look at the 3-1=2-week rebound, if the 5-week line cannot be recovered, it is still necessary to continue to wait and see until incremental funds appear. The direction of the theme, this week funds obviously flowed into the artificial intelligence track-based sectors, this direction after more than a month of full adjustment, there may be a second wave of the market. Therefore, next week's market focus is still artificial intelligence, if they are still strong, it is enough to follow the main theme of funds. If incremental funds enter the market in full, consider the direction of the oversold rebound.
Judging from last week's outlook, last week's view was basically correct. The key between the lines: the inflow of funds. Since there is no obvious inflow of money this week, defense is the general tone, and the theme is artificial intelligence. Because there is no single-day general rise in volume, it is not yet a super fall rebound, it can only be regarded as a counter-pumping signal. Since Friday's market volume is not a general rally, I think last week's strategy can be carried over into next week.
To sum up, I think next week can be looked out like this:
1. The market capital has not found a significant improvement, and it is still defensive until the signal of a large inflow of funds appears! (Single-day volume, market rise, not covered within three days)
2, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out near the 60-week line, and did not hit a new adjustment low, MACD dead cross confirmed, no incremental funds were found, digestion pressure may take a while, even if the index rises, first see as a technical repair of the 5-week line of counter-pumping, willing to do over-fall rebound can try, after the counter-draw in place to decisively leave the market (except for incremental funds).
3, ChiNext index This week after the new low bottomed out, the downward trend has not changed, the 5-week line has not been repaired, because the three-year low has not been stabilized, it is difficult to make the 5-week line turn upward in the short term (unless there is a continuous Yang line), and the risk of grabbing the rebound before the confiscation of the 5-week line is greater (it is estimated that friends who grabbed the rebound in the early stage will know). Since there is no market, rest is the best option until incremental funds appear.
4, the direction of the theme, this week funds still flow into the artificial intelligence track-based sectors, combined with last week's analysis, indeed in the second wave of the market, as long as there is no capital outflow or stagflation signal, I think following the trend is the best choice, just like investing in U.S. stocks. Last week's oversold rebound, the starting condition is incremental funds entering the market, if this signal does not appear, it is not recommended to observe in this direction.
Savings: incremental funds have not appeared, the market is still very low, the Shanghai Composite Index can be done or not, the ChiNext has not stopped falling and rested, the market focus is still artificial intelligence, and the rest of the direction can be ignored.
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Special Notes:
1. The above content is only a personal investment diary, and does not have a guidance function.
2. The views are for reference only, and whether to follow the idea of operation requires investors to judge by themselves.
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