Tesla's 2023 annual shareholder meeting released the latest demonstration video of Optimus humanoid robots, Musk said that Tesla's long-term value may come from Optimus humanoid robots, if the ratio of humanoid robots to people is about 2:1, then people's demand for robots may be 10 billion or even 20 billion, far more than the number of electric vehicles.
The large model represented by ChatPGT is leading a new wave of artificial intelligence, and Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot shows that its related technology is developing rapidly, which is expected to promote the technological progress of the industry, reduce the cost of the industry, and accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots. #人工智能 #
According to the McKinsey report, by 2030, about 400 million jobs in the world will be replaced by automated robots, and the global humanoid robot market space can reach 12-16 trillion yuan according to the 20% penetration rate and the unit price of 15-200,000 humanoid robots. Under the neutral forecast, the global humanoid robot market size will be 85.5 billion yuan in 2030, and the market size CAGR can reach 71% from 2021 to 2030. #人形机器人 #
Under the trend of commercialization of humanoid robots, domestic parts suppliers with cost-effective advantages are expected to benefit. There are four major links in the industry chain that deserve special attention:
Reducer link
The cost of core components in the robot production process is relatively high, and the controller, servo system and reducer account for 15%, 20% and 35% respectively, which is the key to affecting the performance and profit margin of downstream robots.
Pay attention to Leqing Think Tank and gain insight into the industrial pattern!
The reducer is a precision power transmission mechanism, which uses the speed converter of the gear to make the servo motor run at a suitable speed, and accurately reduce the speed to the speed required by each part of the industrial robot, improve the rigidity of the mechanical body while exporting greater torque. RV reducer and harmonic reducer are the most mainstream precision reducers for industrial robots. Due to its higher stiffness and rotation accuracy, the RV reducer is generally placed in the position of heavy loads such as the base, boom, and shoulder, while the harmonic reducer is generally placed in the forearm, wrist or hand.
Reducer types include harmonic reducers and RV reducers.
Compared with the RV reducer, the material, volume and weight used in the harmonic reducer are greatly reduced, and it has the characteristics of small size, high transmission ratio and high precision, which is mainly used in the small arm, wrist or hand of the robot.
Harmonic reducers are also cheaper in terms of price. According to the green harmonic prospectus, the harmonic reducer is 1000-5000 yuan / unit, while the RV reducer is 5000-8000 yuan / unit. #机器人 #
Among industrial robots, there are many harmonic reducers required for multi-joint robots, and the penetration rate of multi-joint robots is still expected to continue to increase.
Schematic diagram of the downstream application field of harmonic reducer products:
In terms of market structure, in the field of RV reducer, although the domestic market sales of the Japanese giant Nabotesk accounted for 50% in 2021, it was 3% smaller than in 2020, while the market share of double-ring transmission rose by 6% to 15%, and domestic manufacturers such as Zhuhai Pegasus, Zhongdaide, Nantong Zhenkang, Qinchuan Machine Tool, etc. also occupied a certain market share.
From the perspective of product type, the replacement of domestic harmonic reducers is relatively obvious, and high-quality manufacturers such as Green and Laifu have emerged, and in 2021, only green harmonics have reached 25% of the market share.
Servo link
The servo system takes the displacement, angle and speed of the object as the control quantity, and can track any change of the target of the automatic control system, usually composed of a servo drive and a servo motor. The servo system is an extended product based on frequency conversion technology, which can amplify, convert and regulate the power according to the requirements of the control command, and control the torque, speed and position output of the drive device accurately, quickly and stably.
The upstream raw materials of the servo system are well supplied, and the downstream demand is very strong.
Upstream raw materials include electronic components, IC chips, hardware, and PCBs, including connectors, capacitors, transistors, interface devices, processors, isolation devices, die-castings, stamping parts, etc.
Downstream applications are extensive, covering textile, electronics, robotics, medical, photovoltaic industry and lithium battery and other industries.
At present, the industry represented by robots, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics is in the high prosperity range, and the overall industry scale growth rate is high, which is expected to strongly support the development of servo systems in the future.
Servo system industry chain:
Source: Cinda Securities
The servo is a link with a high localization rate. According to MIR data, the market share of Huichuan servo system increased from 5.7% in 2015 to 20.9% in Q3 2022, ranking first in the world, and its market share was 10.6pp ahead of the second place Siemens. Compared with Panasonic, Yaskawa and other companies that once occupied the Chinese market, domestic servos have been recognized by the market, and the penetration rate is expected to further increase in the future.
SOURCE: MIR DATABANK, INDUSTRIAL CONTROL NETWORK, SOUTHWEST SECURITIES
Rotate the joint link
Rotary actuators include frameless motors, harmonic reducers, dual encoders, torque sensors, angular contact bearings, crossed roller bearings. From the early stage of deduction to the final state (when the price of a single machine is 20,000 US dollars), the largest price reduction space is for frameless motors (75% price reduction), harmonic reducers (75% price reduction), and angular contact bearings (price reduction of 64%).
The rotating joint structure is more complex, and many components have a large cost reduction space:
The rotary joint of the Tesla robot uses high and low speed dual encoders and torque sensors. In terms of encoders, the accuracy and comprehensive performance of domestic encoders currently have a large gap between foreign countries, and the domestic high-precision market is monopolized by Japanese manufacturers Tamagawa and Nikon, and domestic manufacturers are mainly oriented to the low-end market. In terms of sensors, the main manufacturers in the global sensor market are Honeywell, STMicroelectronics, Freescale, Bosch, Philips, etc., and the import of high-end sensors in the Chinese market accounts for up to 85%, with a low localization rate and a large space for localization in the future.
The bearings used at the joints of Tesla's robots can reuse the bearing supply chain of new energy vehicles and accelerate cost reduction.
The total market share of the eight major international bearing companies in the international bearing market reached 70.70%, and Chinese enterprises accounted for 20.30%.
The mainland bearing industry is currently large but not strong, and the domestic bearing industry is large-scale, but there are many participants and the homogenization phenomenon is serious, and the industry concentration is low. The operating income of China's top six bearing companies accounts for only 20.30% of the domestic market.
The high-end bearing market is occupied by international manufacturers represented by SKF and NSK, and domestic manufacturers mainly produce small, medium and low-end bearings. Therefore, domestic bearing factories supply deep groove ball bearings, angular contact bearings and four-point contact bearings with more advantages.
Schematic diagram of deep groove ball bearings:
Rolling elements are dominated by foreign brands such as Tsubaki Nakajima in Japan and NN in the United States to master the world's most advanced production technology, and among domestic enterprises, enterprises represented by Lixing Co., Ltd. and Wuzhou Xinchun can meet the requirements of Class I precision and are breaking through to higher-end rolling elements, while such domestic enterprises are expanding production capacity and realizing the localization of some rolling elements. In addition, there are still some small-scale rolling body enterprises in central China (more than 10 million yuan and less than 100 million yuan) and low-tech products. #5月财经新势力 #
Linear joints
The value of linear joints is relatively high, and domestic manufacturers are scarce.
Tesla robots use 12 linear actuators (also known as servo axes) throughout the body, using a frameless motor + roller screw scheme. The screw has high transmission accuracy and strong output force capability, but the reverse drive transparency is poor (so a force sensor is required), and the response speed is slow. This drive concept achieves high rigidity, but may limit the highly dynamic movement of the lower extremities.
Roller screw is a subdivision of ball screw, which is difficult to manufacture. At present, the technical barriers of high-precision ball screws are high, and overseas manufacturers occupy a monopoly position. There are only a small number of enterprises with small-batch R & D and manufacturing capabilities in China, including Qinchuan Machine Tool, Xinjian Transmission, and Dingzhi Technology.
The frameless motors used at linear, rotary joints of Tesla robots are servo motors with shafts, bearings, housings, feedbacks or end covers removed, and contain only stators and rotors. Overseas manufacturers include Kollmorgen, Maxon, Nidec, and Moog Motor are in the first echelon of the global frameless motor market, and domestic suppliers include Buke Co., Ltd. and Haozhi Electromechanical.
Pay attention to Leqing Think Tank and gain insight into the industrial pattern!