Old Positive Space-Time Strange Space-Time
Source: AI New Ape Man
Liu Cixin recently delivered a speech at the United Nations, in which he talked about ChatGPT and the impact of AI development on human society, the main points are as follows:
1. The most obvious point is that artificial intelligence may replace quite a bit of "human work", and this trend is the opposite of our previous predictions.
In the past, we predicted that artificial intelligence would first replace jobs such as simple labor and repetitive work, but now it seems that on the contrary, artificial intelligence may first replace jobs that require high intelligence and high education, such as doctors, teachers, stockbrokers, etc. These jobs may be replaced first. This may also include us writers who may be replaced first.
2. Artificial intelligence is constantly iterative and improving, which is a very dangerous thing. If you continue to iterate in this way, it will increase to hundreds or even tens of thousands of times that of human (intelligence).
Since computers compute thousands of times faster than the human brain, the iteration time can be very short, presumably only half an hour to an hour.
It is very scary to say that it took us a century to develop artificial intelligence, and artificial intelligence is a hundred times the current level, and it may only take half an hour to an hour, which is a terrible thing.
But it is easy to overlook the fact that our human computing power, the computing power we can provide, is limited. It's iterated to a point where our hash power can't support it.
This is an ironic thing: our human incompetence has become our last barrier.
3. Artificial intelligence has put humans in a huge comfort trap. AI has greatly improved production efficiency, and our lives will become very comfortable. Most people probably don't need to work, leaving most of the work to artificial intelligence.
In this case, we will increasingly surrender our right to operate society to artificial intelligence. And life will become more and more comfortable, so if it goes on like this, we may face a huge trap unprecedented in human history.
1⃣️
Which industries are likely to face job losses in the future?
The answer is: all industries.
Now even state civil servants have begun to pilot reforms, and some of them have become an appointment system.
With the advancement of science and technology and the development of society, it is only a matter of time before the "iron rice bowl" and "hereditary system" slowly withdraw from the historical stage in the future.
The times have changed to the point that people are overwhelmed, and yesterday's star business may become tomorrow's yellow flower business at any time.
For ordinary workers, it is not uncommon to face a job crisis due to market changes and AI threats, no matter what position you do, what technology you sell, remember that the business will never have evergreens, there must be cyclical changes. Only by continuously improving our basic strength and the ability to learn and innovate can we withstand the changes in the market and job demand.
Of course, there are still people who are not dead, and they have to ask which positions will be immediately reduced under the influence of AI, so to sum up, there are probably the following:
1. Positions that require a lot of repetitive work and low-skill requirements. Such as bank tellers, telephone customer service, network customer service, data entry clerks, assembly line workers, freight drivers, etc.
These positions require fewer skills and knowledge and can use automated systems and robots to do the job.
2. It requires a high degree of professional knowledge and high threshold, but has fixed routines and modes of work. Such as translators, accountants, etc.
Not long ago, "Na Young and Jung so-yeon communicated with the translator" on the hot search, in the video, singer Na Young took out the translator to communicate with South Korean star Jung so-yeon because of the language barrier with South Korean star Jung so-yeon. Different from the blunt and lagging impression of "machine translation", if the English says a Chinese, the translator can accurately express it in English, as if there is a simultaneous interpreter sitting behind.
Translating books pays attention to a "faith, attainment, and elegance", but daily communication is only based on understanding the meaning, so AI has great advantages in this regard, similar positions include designers, medical imaging analysts, some teaching professions, etc.
As for the whole system of finance, including accounting, cashier, auditing, capital accounting, income, expenditure, creditor's rights and debt accounting, accounting file management, etc., which deal with capital figures, except for some managers, the rest may be served by AI.
3. Jobs with high uncertainty and risk but low threshold. Junior consultants, investment analysts, risk assessors, etc. may be challenged.
These positions require accurate assessment and prediction of market changes and risks, as well as a high degree of judgment and decision-making ability. With the development of AI technology, junior employees in these industries (who do some of the dirty work of collecting and simply analyzing data) may be replaced, resulting in some employees losing their jobs.
However, this does not mean that people in all relevant positions will be unemployed, because with the continuous development and application of new technologies, new occupations will gradually emerge, such as the position of testing and training these robots.
For example, many companies are now making self-driving cars, but autonomous vehicles also need to be equipped with test safety officers, and cloud safety officers who are ready to remotely take over the vehicle at the cloud console when the autonomous vehicle encounters an emergency.
Even the work of cleaning the streets done by sanitation workers in the past, now the cleaning work is handed over to the sanitation cleaning truck, but someone also needs to manage the car, it can be said that AI will replace some dirty work, but it can also make people's work easier and more dignified.
2⃣️
Which professions are not easily eliminated?
First, the service industry that requires craftsmanship and technology. Makeup artists and hairdressers, chefs, bartenders, massage technicians, and so on.
That is to say, in the future, it seems that in addition to the loader, excavator, which may be replaced by AI automatic driving, most of the courses in the rest of Lanxiang Vocational and Technical College can almost meet your employment needs.
So I have to convince, the national government's double reduction policy is really forward-looking. In the future era, there will not be so many white-collar workers who study hard for twelve years to enter 985 and 211, and after graduation, drink coffee, do excel, do PPT, and even write code in the office. There are many workers who need to go to the front line to serve the broad masses of the people!
Secondly, there are highly social and cooperative professions. Such as project managers, senior product managers, government relations managers, etc. These professions require a high degree of sociability and cooperation, as well as good communication and coordination skills.
With the development of AI technology, a large number of jobs that deal directly with "machines" are easy to be replaced, but if the nature of your occupation is to deal with people, especially with complex people and groups, then congratulations, there should be a high probability that it will not be greatly affected.
Finally, careers with high skills, experience, or highly innovative and forward-looking. Such as innovative entrepreneurs, marketing experts, senior strategic consultants, senior managers, etc.
These professions require deep professional knowledge and skills, as well as a high degree of innovation and forward-thinking, as well as accurate forecasting and judgment of macroeconomics, market changes and trends.
3⃣️
What are the survival strategies of migrant workers?
Two paths.
The first is to delve into the depth of the profession: three hundred and sixty lines, the line is out of the top, as long as you are a champion in a certain field, then let alone AI, even if the king of heaven Laozi comes, it will not help you.
Why?
Looking at the above so many cases, in fact, it is not difficult to find that there are many positions that AI can replace, but in fact, they are categorized into nothing more than two: a simple, boring, highly repetitive job, easy to be understood and transformed by machines (such as quality inspectors, assembly line workers); The second is some more entry-level jobs, such as junior programmers, junior consultants, etc.
But if you can master skills that ordinary people can't master and depths that can't be reached, then AI is even more difficult to reach.
Therefore, the core of the unemployment problem is not AI, not in any tools, but probably in the problem of "rolling" without rolling.
When he saw this, the workers silently shed bitter tears while continuing to roll inward - after all, not everyone can achieve the high precision of the industry!
However, the good news is that with the current capabilities released by AI, at most PK the last 30%. For domestic Internet companies, this is just a normal flow and optimization ratio every year.
So, if you don't want to be unemployed, be prepared to be unemployed at all times.
From now on, try to accumulate as much industry experience as possible, have cross-field industry knowledge, and have deep thinking about industry strategy and development direction.
Such a person, usually few bosses are willing to let you out, because once you go to another big factory, you will become his competitor.
And even when you do graduate (you are laid off), you can use the resources and strategies you have accumulated in the industry to make a comeback immediately.
The second is to expand the breadth of ability: try to make yourself a slash youth.
Slash youth does not mean that everything is loose, but it may be that each skill list is not particularly outstanding and reasonable, but when combined, it can produce a 1+1>2 effect.
After all, there is great uncertainty about what the future holds, and even without the replacement of AI, the market and business are constantly changing, and no business is evergreen or iron rice bowl.
Every qualified worker must ask himself every day when serving his current bowl of rice:
What if I off tomorrow, and do I have a better place to go?
What if my work encounters a bottleneck and can't break through, can I change the track and develop a second career curve?
So how to come from the second curve, first of all, it depends on your daily learning accumulation and interest practice.
Therefore, while working, you can't put all your personal time and energy into work and money, but you must leave yourself some time to recharge and improve and develop your interests.
Do your job well, but don't do ineffective involution.
This point is actually not contradictory to what was said above, and while pursuing the breadth of ability, it does not give up the depth of pursuing a career.
Through a variety of ways and channels, let others further recognize your diverse value.
The second is that while you promote cooperation in any organization, you must also pay attention to exporting your personal influence.
In this day and age, where the web and social media are particularly developed, you can provide value to the general public through various platforms and communities in exchange for visibility and influence.
If you are a programmer, you can share your knowledge and project practice experience without revealing company secrets, which helps to become a technical expert or KOL in a certain field;
If you are a musician, you can also share your works and composition experience and skills on social media to increase your visibility, and even use this to teach classes, inherit the mantle and enhance your business value.
There are many similar cases, and many people understand the truth, but few people really start.
Some people started doing it for a while, found that they did not achieve the expected results, and gave up; There are even many people who are stunned that they have not survived the last darkness before dawn, and as a result, their previous achievements have been lost.
However, the so-called merit is not donation, only quantitative changes can trigger qualitative changes.
As long as you're in the right direction, you should continue.
The winners you see are in the minority, and that's because only a few make it possible.