Fosun Guo Guangchang, the elephant on the hot pot

Zebra consumption Xu Ji

The alarms on Guo Guangchang and Fosun still do not seem to have been completely lifted.

Last year, the 30 billion yuan returned from selling assets still could not quench thirst? Since the beginning of this year, the pattern of selling and selling has continued.

The eyes of the market are focused on Fosun, and as soon as the wind blows, the wind will immediately be heard.

Fosun is like a giant elephant, wanting to turn around in time, but helplessly huge.

The wine industry plummeted

In the past, as the head of the huge "Fuxing System", Guo Guangchang may not have the energy to pay attention to the daily stock price fluctuations of his listed companies. But in the context of the group's continuous disposal of assets and return funds, his eyes should stay on the stock market for a few more minutes.

At this critical moment, Fosun's high-quality liquor assets were willing to win the liquor industry, and did not earn face for the boss.

On June 5, Shede Liquor opened slightly lower, suddenly flashed and fell to a stop during the session, and then briefly opened, closing at 139.83 yuan / share throughout the day, sealed on the limit board, and the market value evaporated more than 5 billion yuan in one day. This tragic situation is extremely rare in the Shede liquor industry and even in this leading liquor listed company. After-hours statistics, 5 institutions appeared on the Dragon and Tiger list, with a total net sale of about 582 million yuan.

In the following two trading days, Shede Liquor continued to fall, closing at 133.20 yuan / share on the 7th, down 2.60%, and the stock price has hit a new low this year, with a total market value of 44.382 billion yuan. Compared with the high of 215.10 yuan on February 16 this year, it has fallen by nearly 40%.

Since Fosun took over at the end of 2020, the performance of Shede Liquor has been greatly improved, and Guo Guangchang, as the boss, has also stood for Shede in public many times. From 2020 to 2022, the company's operating income soared from 2.704 billion yuan to 6.056 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent soared from 581 million yuan to 1.685 billion yuan.

The market has also given positive feedback to the Shede wine industry. Before Guo Guangchang entered the ownership, the stock price of Shede Liquor was still hovering around 30 yuan, and after that, it rose in a straight line, soon exceeding 100 yuan and 200 yuan, and the high point once exceeded 260 yuan, with a market value of more than 80 billion yuan. During this period, Shede Liquor became the most rising liquor stock, and there was no one. Some brokerages even shouted the target of 100 billion market capitalization.

What caused the recent collapse in the share price of Shede Liquor? There is a lot of confusion in the outside world.

Summer is hot and hot, and it is the traditional off-season for liquor. Seasonal fluctuations are common problems faced by almost all liquor companies.

Specific to Shede Liquor, there are market rumors that the company's payment collection in April and May is average, and the willingness of distributors to take goods is reduced.

In this regard, Shede Liquor Industry specially responded: production, operation and sales collection were carried out normally.

Judging from the situation in the first quarter of this year, the growth of Shede Liquor has indeed slowed down sharply, with revenue and profit growth rates of less than double digits, which is lower than the growth rate of liquor peers of the same scale.

Selling continues

The reason why Guo Guangchang bought Shede Liquor is first because this company can make money and has development prospects. Another reason is that he likes the name "give", which is the two words that many business people like to frame in the office, the so-called "give to gain".

Since last year, Guo Guangchang should have a deeper understanding of the meaning of the word "willing".

In September 2022, a cold wind suddenly blew above Fosun's head, freezing cold. Located in the headquarters of Fosun Group in the BFC Bund Financial Center in Shanghai, although everything is in order, tension is written in the brow of the helm of this giant ship.

Guo Guangchang, known as "China's Buffett", had to lead Fosun to make an emergency U-turn and quickly switch from buying and buying in the past to selling and selling mode. S&P downgraded Fosun International's long-term issuer credit rating and the company's secured senior unsecured debt issuance rating, mainly due to the reduced liquidity buffer.

Fortunately, Fosun has a large number of liquid assets and can quickly find buyers.

Jinhui wine was put on the shelves for the first time. This is only two years since Guo Guangchang took control of this northwest wine company.

Once upon a time, Guo Guangchang bought two A-share liquor companies in a short period of time with his left hand and right hand, which was unprecedented.

At the same time, Fosun reduced its holdings in its core asset Fosun Pharma shares, causing a market uproar.

In fact, before September last year, Fosun's intention to sell assets to withdraw funds was already obvious, and it had all reduced its holdings in listed companies such as Hainan Mining, Tsingtao Beer, Zhongshan Public Utilities and Tahe Technology.

According to media statistics, throughout 2022, Fosun reduced its holdings of shares through the sale of assets and returned about 30 billion yuan. Because he was eager to sell his stake in Nanjing Steel Union, he also got into a lawsuit.

To this day, the dark cloud hanging over Fosun's head still does not seem to have completely dissipated. This year, the selling continued.

In May alone, there were two big moves. Yuyuan shares sold 100% of IGI Group to "BCP ASIA" of Blackstone, USA; Fosun Group sold the North Tower of Guangzhou Fosun International Center to Guangzhou Zhiqiao Co., Ltd.

Recently, some media confirmed that Deppon Securities, which Guo Guangchang actually controls, is negotiating a sale, and the buyer is most likely a local state-owned asset.

At the same time, there is news in the market that Goldman Sachs will take over Fosun Cultural Tourism's Casa Cook and Cook's Club resort brands.

Guo Guangchang can't let go yet

Some media noted that when Guo Guangchang attended the Yabuli Forum in March this year, he looked much haggard than in the past few years, "less and less hair, more and more gray hair." ”

From a fresh college graduate to the establishment of a huge "Fosun Empire", Guo Guangchang has experienced a full 30 years.

"China Buffett" is not a waste of fame, in many critical times, he can always lead Fosun to seize opportunities and step up one step after another. He has also been the "richest man in Shanghai" for many consecutive years.

Of course, 30 years of business experience cannot be smooth sailing.

In the last wave of overseas mergers and acquisitions of Chinese enterprises, Fosun was the one standing at the head of the tide. In just a few years, it has invested tens of billions of US dollars and has successively won projects such as Fosun Portugal Insurance, AmeriTrust Insurance of the United States, H&A of German Private Bank, and BCP of Portuguese Bank.

In 2015, rumors arose, directly impacting the stock price of Fosun, and the clouds hung over Guo Guangchang's head for a long time.

In this "black swan" incident, Guo Guangchang was equally decisive and retracted the tentacles of investment from overseas. During this period, whether in words or actions, he showed his intention to embrace the Chinese market and invest heavily in the consumer sector.

At the same time, it has successively withdrawn from investment projects such as Dirui Medical, Dean Diagnostics, Del Shares, Greentown Water, Quanzhu Shares, and Minsheng Bank, which were all very strong areas for Fosun.

As the core of Fosun International, Fosun International's business layout is clearer. Health, happiness, affluence, and intelligent manufacturing correspond to the pharmaceutical, consumer, financial, energy and other business lines.

Guo Guangchang still uses his "bottom reading technique" and has once again written a classic case of investment in Tsingtao Beer and Shede Liquor. Of course, there are also baby trees, lily jiayuan, Ruyi love and other projects, in the short term, there is no day when the melon is ripe.

It is precisely because Guo Guangchang's strong man broke his wrist that Fosun was in danger in last year's crisis.

The market generally believes that Fosun's most difficult time has passed, but Guo Guangchang is far from the time when he can breathe a sigh of relief.