Electronic publishing analyst Thad McIlroy recently commented in Publishers Weekly that the latest generation of artificial intelligence is undergoing a revolutionary change. In the near future, every step of the book publishing industry can be automated with the help of generative artificial intelligence. Soon, the trade book publishing industry as we know it will become obsolete.
Footage from the documentary Horizon: The Hunt for AI (2012).
The rapid advancement of generative artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT reminded McIlroy of the changes that the print publishing field underwent through. In 1985, when Macintosh, laser printers, and desktop publishing software first came out, the results of book publishing using these applications were not ideal, the font edges were not smooth enough, and the word spacing was rough. At the time, many in the publishing industry questioned these "new technologies," just as many now question the impact of artificial intelligence on the publishing industry.
Images from the late 19th century documentary Intérieur d'une imprimerie (1899).
By 1988, when the Macintosh computer and Linotype were connected, the quality of publishing improved significantly. But most traditionalists still believe that the colors of the font are not good enough, and that this quality flaw is perceived and rejected by the reader. One of the designers even shifted their focus to specific fonts, kerning, line spacing, and printed page design. That's not to say their work is meaningless, but to this day, the public realizes that one concept for measuring publication production is "good enough": to make the vast majority of readers feel completely satisfied with what they see and read in the books they buy.
This "good enough" standard can also be applied to generative AI, and GPT-4 is not yet able to do professional manuscript editing as required by book publishers, but we will soon see this ability. While books edited by generative AI can still be "better" to fine editors, this subtle tactile difference that professionals can discern won't help publishers sell more books because, as mentioned earlier, they're already "good enough."
"Does GPT have the ability to write books for publication?" This is the answer generated by ChatGPT to this question. Image from Publishers Weekly.
Next, McIlroy analyzes the changes that generative artificial intelligence will bring to the field of book publishing from multiple aspects such as topic selection, editing, printing and marketing. First, generative AI will become the patron saint of the scrap heap. Its ability to assess grammar and logical expression allows it to make an initial assessment of the level of a book. It may not be able to spot those extremely great masterpieces, but it will know how to distinguish between good and bad. It's true that some manuscripts that are rejected by 100 publishers and become accidental bestsellers happen from time to time, and generative AI can make the mistake, but let's not forget that the 100 publishing industry professionals who claim to be well-trained also missed.
From a production and printing perspective, most of the current print and digital book production is fully automated or semi-automated, and AI will fill in some of the missing parts, but the inefficiency of the production process is mainly because the publishing industry is still subject to a high degree of human intervention. This is the unwavering belief of many in the publishing industry that the value of human intervention outweighs the productivity gains brought about by automation.
From the perspective of distribution channels, the publishing transformation triggered by artificial intelligence will try to break the position of online retailers such as Amazon in the distribution ecosystem. For new authors, Amazon remains a gateway, but for established publishers, Amazon has become an overly high tenant they can barely afford. Self-published authors have proven that AI can help self-published authors better connect directly with readers, and it turns out that the closer a writer is to a reader, the more fans they will gain and sell more books. In addition, marketing may be the most powerful aspect of AI's foray into book publishing: providing powerful real-time market conditions, understanding books that are snatching sales and missed opportunities, helping writers find their ideal readership, and providing readers with the perfect next book are all AI's best jobs.
Thad McIlroy, e-publishing analyst and author who runs the website Future of Publishing, is one of the founding partners of Publishing Technology Partners. Image from Publishers Weekly.
The entertainment industry around book publishing will also be affected on a similar scale to the publishing industry. McIlroy believes that research has found that more and more adults are spending their leisure time playing online and watching videos. Enhanced e-books were never a success, but book adaptations into audiobooks sold more than anyone's most optimistic expectations. When movies and video games are tightly integrated and book publishing is on the margins, the arrival of artificial intelligence may change that, transforming books into revenue-generating mediums in unprecedented ways.
When we discuss the opportunities presented by AI, it is inevitable to weigh the risks that come with it. McIlroy is optimistic that we must build a deep trench between opportunity and danger, because the dangers surrounding a new technology can only be understood when you fully recognize the opportunities offered by it. Is this view correct? Maybe just wait for an answer.
Not long ago, a large number of well-known artificial intelligence experts and industry giants issued a joint statement, advocating the suspension of the research and development of artificial intelligence such as "GPT-4" (the language model of the chatbot ChatGPT), and calling on the public to be wary of the huge risk of improper use of artificial intelligence, and many countries and regions have also begun to restrict the use of generative artificial intelligence, which undoubtedly casts a shadow on the development of artificial intelligence. It is conceivable how much impact artificial intelligence will have on the publishing industry, and with the rapid iteration of artificial intelligence development, such discussions have only just begun.
Note: The cover image is based on stills from The Bookshop (2017).
Resources:
（1）AI Is About to Turn Book Publishing Upside-Down
https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/print/20230605/92471-ai-is-about-to-turn-book-publishing-upside-down.html
Compilation / Li Yongbo
Editor/Luo Dong
Proofreader/Liu Baoqing